Issued 2026-09-25 at $98.52 · now $98.52 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, BNTX has typically landed between $79.10 and $121.46 — a range of −19.7% to +23.3% from the issuance price $98.52.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,727 overlapping 1 month windows · 2019-10-10 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($98.52) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where BNTX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $98.52 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $98.52 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $97.21 (-1.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $89.95–$104.47
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $79.1–$121.46
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-03-18 | −55.6% | −58.1% | +0.0% |
| 2021-12-21 | −45.7% | −45.7% | +0.0% |
| 2021-12-17 | −43.7% | −43.7% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-02-14 | +199.2% | −7.1% | +199.2% |
| 2019-12-04 | +108.6% | +0.0% | +108.6% |
| 2021-07-09 | +105.7% | −4.4% | +105.7% |
1,727 overlapping windows · 2019-10-10 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- November 2026 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: A Phase II Clinical Trial Comparing the Efficacy of RO7198457 Versus Watchful Waiting in Patients With ctDNA-positive, Resected Stage II (High Risk) and Stage III Colorectal Cancer (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- June 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: A Randomized Clinical Trial Investigating the Safety, Reactogenicity, and Immunogenicity After Immunization With an mRNA-based Mpox Vaccine Candidate in Africa (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- December 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: A Clinical Trial Testing the Safety of Pumitamig (an Investigational Drug) and How Well it Works When Combined With Chemotherapy for People Who Have Not Been Treated Yet for Pancreatic Cancer (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- March 2028 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Clinical Study of the Anti-cancer Effects of an Investigational Therapy or Chemotherapy in Patients With Recurring Uterine Cancer (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- March 2028 — Trial primary completion: Phase 1/Phase PHASE2 primary completion: A Clinical Study to Test if an Investigational Treatment Called BNT326 is Safe and Potentially Beneficial When Used Alone or in Combination With Other Investigational Treatments Such as BNT327, for People With Advanced Malignant Tumors (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- August 2028 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: Safety and Preliminary Effectiveness of BNT327, an Investigational Therapy for Breast Cancer, When Given in Combination With Chemotherapy (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- September 2028 — Trial primary completion: Phase 1/Phase PHASE2 primary completion: A Clinical Study to Investigate the Efficacy and Safety of an Investigational Combination Therapy With BNT324 and BNT327 in Patients With Advanced Lung Cancer (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- October 2028 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: Safety and Preliminary Efficacy of Pumitamig (BNT327), an Investigational Therapy for Patients With Non-small Cell Lung Cancer in Combination With Chemotherapy as First-line or Second-line Treatment (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- November 2028 — Trial primary completion: Phase 1/Phase PHASE2 primary completion: A Clinical Trial to Test if an Investigational Combination Therapy With BNT326 and BNT327 is Safe and Potentially Beneficial for People With Advanced Non-small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- December 2028 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Safety and Efficacy of BNT327, an Investigational Therapy in Combination With Chemotherapy for Patients With Untreated Small-cell Lung Cancer (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- January 2029 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2/Phase PHASE3 primary completion: Safety, Efficacy, and Pharmacokinetics of BNT327 in Combination With Chemotherapy and Other Investigational Agents for Lung Cancer (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- April 2029 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2/Phase PHASE3 primary completion: A Clinical Trial Investigating the Safety, Tolerability, and Therapeutic Effects of BNT113 in Combination With Pembrolizumab Versus Pembrolizumab Alone for Patients With a Form of Head and Neck Cancer Positive for Human Papilloma Virus 16 and Expressing the Protein PD-L1 (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~7 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | Sahin Ugur | officer | Sale | 39,000 @ $98.99 | $3.9M | −10.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 341,209 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-23 | Sahin Ugur | officer | Sale | 30,000 @ $99.40 | $3.0M | −7.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 380,209 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-22 | Sahin Ugur | officer | Sale | 46,000 @ $100.72 | $4.6M | −10.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 410,209 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-21 | Sahin Ugur | officer | Sale | 33,000 @ $97.81 | $3.2M | −6.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 456,209 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-18 | Sahin Ugur | officer | Sale | 30,000 @ $96.22 | $2.9M | −5.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 489,209 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-17 | Sahin Ugur | officer | Sale | 34,000 @ $98.60 | $3.4M | −6.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 519,209 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-16 | Sahin Ugur | officer | Sale | 15,000 @ $96.09 | $1.4M | −2.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 553,209 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-15 | Sahin Ugur | officer | Sale | 34,000 @ $96.49 | $3.3M | −5.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 568,209 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Sahin Ugur | officer | Sale | 41,000 @ $99.45 | $4.1M | −6.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 602,209 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-11 | Sahin Ugur | officer | Sale | 45,000 @ $96.93 | $4.4M | −6.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 643,209 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Sahin Ugur | officer | Sale | 20,500 @ $96.31 | $2.0M | −2.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 688,209 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Sahin Ugur | officer | Sale | 36,000 @ $97.78 | $3.5M | −4.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 708,709 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-08 | Sahin Ugur | officer | Sale | 37,000 @ $99.20 | $3.7M | −4.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 744,709 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Sahin Ugur | officer | Sale | 31,500 @ $103.52 | $3.3M | −3.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 781,709 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Sahin Ugur | officer | Sale | 45,000 @ $102.85 | $4.6M | −5.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 813,209 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-22 | Poetting Sierk | officer | Sale | 50,000 @ $110.56 | $5.5M | −11.1% of holding | −20.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 399,387 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
10 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | Poetting Sierk | officer | Award / grant | 12,586 | 12,586 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Poetting Sierk | officer | Award / grant | 10,069 | 10,069 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Jimenez Kylie | officer | Award / grant | 8,391 | 8,391 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Jimenez Kylie | officer | Award / grant | 10,488 | 10,488 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Ryan James Timothy Patrick | officer | Award / grant | 10,069 | 10,069 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Ryan James Timothy Patrick | officer | Award / grant | 12,586 | 12,586 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Hanekamp Annemarie | officer | Award / grant | 10,069 | 10,069 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Hanekamp Annemarie | officer | Award / grant | 12,586 | 12,586 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Zapata Gomez Ramon | officer | Award / grant | 15,103 | 15,103 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Zapata Gomez Ramon | officer | Award / grant | 18,879 | 18,879 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.