Issued 2026-08-13 at $92.74 · now $92.12 (2026-08-13, −0.7% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-08-13 close, BNTX has typically landed between $73.51 and $112.84 — a range of −20.7% to +21.7% from the issuance price $92.74.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,697 overlapping 1 month windows · 2019-10-10 – 2026-07-15 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.8% (90% CI 51.6–56.0%, ≈1,400 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-08-13 issuance close ($92.74) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-09-11, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where BNTX has typically landed a month from the 2026-08-13 close of $92.74 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $92.12 (-0.7%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $91.1 (-1.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $84.35–$97.85
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $73.51–$112.84
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-03-18 | −55.6% | −58.1% | +0.0% |
| 2021-12-21 | −45.7% | −45.7% | +0.0% |
| 2021-12-17 | −43.7% | −43.7% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-02-14 | +199.2% | −7.1% | +199.2% |
| 2019-12-04 | +108.6% | +0.0% | +108.6% |
| 2021-07-09 | +105.7% | −4.4% | +105.7% |
1,697 overlapping windows · 2019-10-10 – 2026-08-13 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- November 2026 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: A Phase II Clinical Trial Comparing the Efficacy of RO7198457 Versus Watchful Waiting in Patients With ctDNA-positive, Resected Stage II (High Risk) and Stage III Colorectal Cancer (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- June 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: A Randomized Clinical Trial Investigating the Safety, Reactogenicity, and Immunogenicity After Immunization With an mRNA-based Mpox Vaccine Candidate in Africa (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- December 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: A Clinical Trial Testing the Safety of Pumitamig (an Investigational Drug) and How Well it Works When Combined With Chemotherapy for People Who Have Not Been Treated Yet for Pancreatic Cancer (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- March 2028 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Clinical Study of the Anti-cancer Effects of an Investigational Therapy or Chemotherapy in Patients With Recurring Uterine Cancer (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- March 2028 — Trial primary completion: Phase 1/Phase PHASE2 primary completion: A Clinical Study to Test if an Investigational Treatment Called BNT326 is Safe and Potentially Beneficial When Used Alone or in Combination With Other Investigational Treatments Such as BNT327, for People With Advanced Malignant Tumors (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- August 2028 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: Safety and Preliminary Effectiveness of BNT327, an Investigational Therapy for Breast Cancer, When Given in Combination With Chemotherapy (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- September 2028 — Trial primary completion: Phase 1/Phase PHASE2 primary completion: A Clinical Study to Investigate the Efficacy and Safety of an Investigational Combination Therapy With BNT324 and BNT327 in Patients With Advanced Lung Cancer (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- October 2028 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: Safety and Preliminary Efficacy of Pumitamig (BNT327), an Investigational Therapy for Patients With Non-small Cell Lung Cancer in Combination With Chemotherapy as First-line or Second-line Treatment (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- November 2028 — Trial primary completion: Phase 1/Phase PHASE2 primary completion: A Clinical Trial to Test if an Investigational Combination Therapy With BNT326 and BNT327 is Safe and Potentially Beneficial for People With Advanced Non-small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- December 2028 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Safety and Efficacy of BNT327, an Investigational Therapy in Combination With Chemotherapy for Patients With Untreated Small-cell Lung Cancer (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- January 2029 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2/Phase PHASE3 primary completion: Safety, Efficacy, and Pharmacokinetics of BNT327 in Combination With Chemotherapy and Other Investigational Agents for Lung Cancer (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- April 2029 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2/Phase PHASE3 primary completion: A Clinical Trial Investigating the Safety, Tolerability, and Therapeutic Effects of BNT113 in Combination With Pembrolizumab Versus Pembrolizumab Alone for Patients With a Form of Head and Neck Cancer Positive for Human Papilloma Virus 16 and Expressing the Protein PD-L1 (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~7 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Company insiders iOpen-market share purchases and sales by the company's own officers and directors, by filing date.
Last 90 days · as of 2026-08-13 · point-in-time by filing date
No insider transactions on record in the last 90 days.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. Full terms.