Issued 2026-09-16 at $11.04 · now $11.04 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BNTC has typically landed between $7.60 and $15.36 — a range of −31.2% to +39.2% from the issuance price $11.04.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,048 overlapping 1 month windows · 2014-06-24 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($11.04) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where BNTC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $11.04 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $11.04 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $10.84 (-1.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $9.47–$12.2
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $7.6–$15.36
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-09-08 | −60.0% | −60.5% | +0.0% |
| 2016-01-28 | −59.3% | −59.3% | +0.0% |
| 2019-05-29 | −59.1% | −60.9% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-19 | +178.6% | −11.5% | +178.6% |
| 2020-03-20 | +172.9% | +0.0% | +214.9% |
| 2020-03-24 | +127.3% | +0.0% | +194.7% |
3,048 overlapping windows · 2014-06-24 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- November 2030 — Trial primary completion: Phase 1/Phase PHASE2 primary completion: A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Clinical Activity of Intramuscular Doses of BB-301 Administered to Subjects With Oculopharyngeal Muscular Dystrophy With Dysphagia (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~13 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-29 | MONTANOVA CAPITAL, LLC | director | Purchase | 65,800 @ $13.44 | $884K | +0.7% of holding | −7.4% | −14.9% | 9,700,195 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-29 | MONTANOVA CAPITAL, LLC | director | Purchase | 11,587 @ $13.44 | $156K | +0.6% of holding | −7.4% | −14.9% | 1,848,156 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-26 | MONTANOVA CAPITAL, LLC | director | Purchase | 14,320 @ $13.10 | $188K | +0.1% of holding | −8.5% | −6.6% | 9,634,395 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-26 | MONTANOVA CAPITAL, LLC | director | Purchase | 2,516 @ $13.10 | $33K | +0.1% of holding | −8.5% | −6.6% | 1,836,569 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-23 | MONTANOVA CAPITAL, LLC | director | Purchase | 42,600 @ $12.85 | $547K | +0.4% of holding | −6.4% | −11.1% | 9,620,075 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-23 | MONTANOVA CAPITAL, LLC | director | Purchase | 7,400 @ $12.85 | $95K | +0.4% of holding | −6.4% | −11.1% | 1,834,053 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-22 | MONTANOVA CAPITAL, LLC | director | Purchase | 16,650 @ $12.08 | $201K | +0.2% of holding | +0.4% | −2.5% | 9,577,475 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-22 | MONTANOVA CAPITAL, LLC | director | Purchase | 2,892 @ $12.08 | $35K | +0.2% of holding | +0.4% | −2.5% | 1,826,653 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-19 | MONTANOVA CAPITAL, LLC | director | Purchase | 13,950 @ $11.48 | $160K | +0.1% of holding | +10.3% | +10.2% | 9,560,825 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-19 | MONTANOVA CAPITAL, LLC | director | Purchase | 2,434 @ $11.48 | $28K | +0.1% of holding | +10.3% | +10.2% | 1,823,761 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-18 | MONTANOVA CAPITAL, LLC | director | Purchase | 8,700 @ $11.24 | $98K | +0.1% of holding | +4.9% | +3.8% | 9,546,875 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-18 | MONTANOVA CAPITAL, LLC | director | Purchase | 1,515 @ $11.24 | $17K | +0.1% of holding | +4.9% | +3.8% | 1,821,327 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-07 | MONTANOVA CAPITAL, LLC | director | Purchase | 751,111 @ $13.50 | $10.1M | +70.3% of holding | +2.3% | −18.1% | 1,819,812 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-07 | MONTANOVA CAPITAL, LLC | director | Purchase | 730,370 @ $13.50 | $9.9M | +8.3% of holding | +2.3% | −18.1% | 9,538,175 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-31 | MONTANOVA CAPITAL, LLC | director | Purchase | 9,503 @ $12.63 | $120K | +0.1% of holding | +5.3% | −11.9% | 8,802,748 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-31 | MONTANOVA CAPITAL, LLC | director | Purchase | 5,057 @ $13.22 | $67K | +0.1% of holding | +5.3% | −11.9% | 8,807,805 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-31 | MONTANOVA CAPITAL, LLC | director | Purchase | 1,267 @ $12.63 | $16K | +0.1% of holding | +5.3% | −11.9% | 1,068,031 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-31 | MONTANOVA CAPITAL, LLC | director | Purchase | 670 @ $13.22 | $9K | +0.1% of holding | +5.3% | −11.9% | 1,068,701 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-26 | MONTANOVA CAPITAL, LLC | director | Purchase | 793,800 @ $13.00 | $10.3M | +9.9% of holding | +0.2% | −17.9% | 8,793,245 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-26 | MONTANOVA CAPITAL, LLC | director | Purchase | 106,200 @ $13.00 | $1.4M | +11.1% of holding | +0.2% | −17.9% | 1,066,764 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-24 | MONTANOVA CAPITAL, LLC | director | Purchase | 17,730 @ $11.25 | $199K | +0.2% of holding | −7.6% | −2.3% | 7,999,455 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-24 | MONTANOVA CAPITAL, LLC | director | Purchase | 2,288 @ $11.25 | $26K | +0.2% of holding | −7.6% | −2.3% | 960,554 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-23 | MONTANOVA CAPITAL, LLC | director | Purchase | 24,360 @ $10.98 | $267K | +0.3% of holding | −4.9% | −3.0% | 7,981,725 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-23 | MONTANOVA CAPITAL, LLC | director | Purchase | 3,142 @ $10.98 | $34K | +0.3% of holding | −4.9% | −3.0% | 958,266 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-03 | MONTANOVA CAPITAL, LLC | director | Purchase | 37,190 @ $9.60 | $357K | +0.5% of holding | +22.7% | +60.2% | 7,957,365 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-03 | MONTANOVA CAPITAL, LLC | director | Purchase | 4,810 @ $9.60 | $46K | +0.5% of holding | +22.7% | +60.2% | 955,124 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
22 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-29 | BUCHI J KEVIN | director | Gift | 51,813 | 52,097 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Friedman David Matthew | director | Award / grant | 35,000 | 35,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-22 | Mates Sharon | director | Award / grant | 31,500 | 31,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-01 | Smith Edward F | director | Award / grant | 35,000 | 35,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-01 | Francis Peter | director | Award / grant | 35,000 | 35,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-01 | BUCHI J KEVIN | director | Award / grant | 35,000 | 35,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-01 | Mates Sharon | director | Award / grant | 3,500 | 3,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-01 | Mehta Kishan | director | Award / grant | 35,000 | 35,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-18 | Boston Megan | director | Award / grant | 200,000 | 200,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-18 | Banks Jerel A. | director | Award / grant | 450,000 | 450,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-18 | Mukadam Sophie | officer | Award / grant | 500,000 | 500,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-05 | Mates Sharon | director | Award / grant | 28,517 | 28,517 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-12 | BUCHI J KEVIN | director | Gift | 103,626 | 103,626 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-12 | BUCHI J KEVIN | director | Gift | 103,626 | 284 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-27 | BUCHI J KEVIN | director | Option exercise | 51,813 | 103,910 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-27 | BUCHI J KEVIN | director | Option exercise | 51,813 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-09 | Francis Peter | director | Award / grant | 35,000 | 35,000 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-09 | BUCHI J KEVIN | director | Award / grant | 35,000 | 35,000 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-09 | Banks Jerel A. | director | Award / grant | 2,310,000 | 2,310,000 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-09 | Boston Megan | director | Award / grant | 720,000 | 720,000 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-09 | Smith Edward F | director | Award / grant | 35,000 | 35,000 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-09 | Mehta Kishan | director | Award / grant | 35,000 | 35,000 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.