Issued 2026-09-16 at $19.42 · now $19.42 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BNL has typically landed between $17.54 and $21.36 — a range of −9.7% to +10.0% from the issuance price $19.42.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,473 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-09-17 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($19.42) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where BNL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $19.42 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $19.42 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $19.44 (+0.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $18.65–$20.23
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $17.54–$21.36
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-08-26 | −22.9% | −22.9% | +0.0% |
| 2022-09-09 | −21.2% | −21.2% | +1.3% |
| 2022-09-12 | −19.9% | −22.3% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2021-05-13 | +26.6% | +0.0% | +26.6% |
| 2021-05-12 | +24.1% | +0.0% | +24.1% |
| 2021-05-11 | +22.5% | +0.0% | +22.5% |
1,473 overlapping windows · 2020-09-17 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Imperiale Richard P | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $21.10 | $106K | +19.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 31,250 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Imperiale Richard P | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $21.22 | $106K | +23.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 26,250 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-15 | Fennell Kevin | officer | Purchase | 859 @ $15.92 | $14K | +0.5% of holding | +2.6% | +7.4% | 179,288 | Form 4 · filed 232 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-14 | Imperiale Richard P | director | Purchase | 2,500 @ $15.78 | $39K | +18.2% of holding | +0.5% | +1.7% | 16,263 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-13 | Imperiale Richard P | director | Purchase | 2,500 @ $15.93 | $40K | +22.2% of holding | −0.7% | +1.3% | 13,763 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-09 | Imperiale Richard P | director | Purchase | 2,500 @ $16.34 | $41K | +28.5% of holding | −7.2% | −4.8% | 11,263 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-08 | Imperiale Richard P | director | Purchase | 2,500 @ $16.28 | $41K | +39.9% of holding | −5.9% | −6.3% | 8,763 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-08 | JACOBSTEIN DAVID M | director | Purchase | 1,500 @ $16.28 | $24K | +2.3% of holding | −5.9% | −6.3% | 65,633 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-07 | Albano Ryan M | officer | Purchase | 10,000 @ $16.52 | $165K | +3.2% of holding | −7.2% | −6.7% | 318,548 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-07 | Felice Laura L. | director | Purchase | 9,250 @ $16.36 | $151K | +47.7% of holding | −7.2% | −6.7% | 28,650 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-06 | Fennell Kevin | officer | Purchase | 5,000 @ $15.87 | $79K | +2.9% of holding | −5.2% | −4.9% | 178,429 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-06 | Watters James H | director | Purchase | 2,000 @ $15.98 | $32K | +1.7% of holding | −5.2% | −4.9% | 122,362 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-05 | Hawkes Laurie A. | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $16.14 | $161K | +7.7% of holding | −6.2% | −4.8% | 140,696 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-05 | Moragne John David | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $16.13 | $161K | +2.3% of holding | −6.2% | −4.8% | 449,791 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-05 | Saffire Joseph | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $16.08 | $161K | +159.7% of holding | −6.2% | −4.8% | 16,263 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-05 | COKE MICHAEL A | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $16.07 | $161K | +20.8% of holding | −6.2% | −4.8% | 57,963 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-05 | Duran Jessica | director | Purchase | 6,173 @ $16.11 | $99K | +31.8% of holding | −6.2% | −4.8% | 25,573 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-05 | Watters James H | director | Purchase | 2,000 @ $16.13 | $32K | +1.7% of holding | −6.2% | −4.8% | 120,362 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
75 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | Watters James H | director | Award / grant | 4,987 | 127,349 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Hawkes Laurie A. | director | Award / grant | 4,987 | 145,683 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Saffire Joseph | director | Award / grant | 4,987 | 21,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Duran Jessica | director | Award / grant | 4,987 | 30,560 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Felice Laura L. | director | Award / grant | 4,987 | 33,637 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Imperiale Richard P | director | Award / grant | 4,987 | 21,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | JACOBSTEIN DAVID M | director | Award / grant | 4,987 | 70,620 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | COKE MICHAEL A | director | Award / grant | 4,987 | 62,950 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Moragne John David | director | Withheld for tax | 75,933 | 576,550 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Albano Ryan M | officer | Withheld for tax | 56,950 | 400,605 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Fennell Kevin | officer | Withheld for tax | 28,475 | 220,036 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Callan John | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,470 | 104,140 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Caruso Michael B. | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,470 | 112,947 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | O'Brien Jennie | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,576 | 78,044 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Wiegel Molly | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,576 | 72,297 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Wiegel Molly | officer | Award / grant | 9,917 | 75,873 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Moragne John David | director | Award / grant | 148,741 | 652,483 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Albano Ryan M | officer | Award / grant | 111,557 | 457,555 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Fennell Kevin | officer | Award / grant | 55,778 | 248,511 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Caruso Michael B. | officer | Award / grant | 12,397 | 117,417 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | O'Brien Jennie | officer | Award / grant | 9,917 | 81,620 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Callan John | officer | Award / grant | 12,397 | 108,610 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Moragne John David | director | Withheld for tax | 24,681 | 425,110 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Albano Ryan M | officer | Withheld for tax | 16,005 | 302,543 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Fennell Kevin | officer | Withheld for tax | 10,352 | 168,936 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Caruso Michael B. | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,497 | 95,708 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | O'Brien Jennie | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,799 | 63,167 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Callan John | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,560 | 87,677 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Garner William D. | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,478 | 75,530 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Wiegel Molly | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,513 | 59,748 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | O'Brien Jennie | officer | Award / grant | 8,536 | 71,703 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Garner William D. | officer | Award / grant | 9,312 | 84,842 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Caruso Michael B. | officer | Award / grant | 9,312 | 105,020 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Albano Ryan M | officer | Award / grant | 43,455 | 345,998 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Moragne John David | director | Award / grant | 78,632 | 503,742 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Wiegel Molly | officer | Award / grant | 6,208 | 65,956 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Fennell Kevin | officer | Award / grant | 23,797 | 192,733 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Callan John | officer | Award / grant | 8,536 | 96,213 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-02 | JACOBSTEIN DAVID M | director | Award / grant | 6,263 | 64,133 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-02 | Duran Jessica | director | Award / grant | 6,263 | 19,400 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.