Issued 2026-09-16 at $10.47 · now $10.47 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BNED has typically landed between $6.79 and $14.25 — a range of −35.1% to +36.1% from the issuance price $10.47.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,779 overlapping 1 month windows · 2015-07-23 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($10.47) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where BNED has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $10.47 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $10.47 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $10.1 (-3.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $8.73–$11.47
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $6.79–$14.25
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2024-05-30 | −92.0% | −92.0% | +0.0% |
| 2024-05-23 | −91.6% | −92.0% | +0.0% |
| 2024-05-29 | −91.2% | −91.4% | +5.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-04-25 | +269.4% | −14.2% | +280.8% |
| 2024-04-24 | +252.7% | −14.0% | +281.7% |
| 2024-04-19 | +239.5% | −23.5% | +239.5% |
2,779 overlapping windows · 2015-07-23 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~12 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | Snagusky Jason | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $12.64 | $63K | −6.5% of holding | −9.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 71,762 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-10 | Neumann Christopher | officer | Sale | 2,785 @ $11.61 | $32K | −3.3% of holding | −2.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 81,715 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-10 | Snagusky Jason | officer | Sale | 2,237 @ $11.61 | $26K | −2.8% of holding | −2.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 76,762 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-10 | Luster Gary | officer | Sale | 1,066 @ $11.61 | $12K | −3.2% of holding | −2.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 31,934 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | TORO 18 HOLDINGS LLC | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $1.50 | $3K | −22.2% of holding | +9.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | TORO 18 HOLDINGS LLC | director | Sale | 12,000 @ $1.88 | $23K | −50.0% of holding | +10.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | TORO 18 HOLDINGS LLC | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $1.50 | $8K | −50.0% of holding | +10.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Snagusky Jason | officer | Sale | 1,384 @ $12.65 | $18K | −1.7% of holding | +4.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 78,999 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Snagusky Jason | officer | Sale | 826 @ $12.24 | $10K | −1.0% of holding | +4.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 80,383 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | SHAR JONATHAN | officer | Sale | 67,896 @ $12.83 | $871K | −18.7% of holding | −5.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 294,940 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-13 | SHAR JONATHAN | officer | Sale | 81 @ $8.11 | $657 | −0.0% of holding | +14.4% | +14.7% | 362,836 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-13 | Snagusky Jason | officer | Sale | 17 @ $8.11 | $138 | −0.0% of holding | +14.4% | +14.7% | 81,209 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-13 | TORO 18 HOLDINGS LLC | director | Purchase | 142,898 @ $8.60 | $1.2M | +1.3% of holding | +3.9% | −26.7% | 11,208,746 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-12 | TORO 18 HOLDINGS LLC | director | Purchase | 59,146 @ $8.49 | $502K | +0.5% of holding | +7.3% | −19.2% | 11,065,848 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-16 | Lids Holdings, Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,500,000 @ $11.25 | $16.9M | −33.5% of holding | −5.2% | −5.8% | 2,976,614 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
13 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | SHAR JONATHAN | officer | Award / grant | 345 | 355,285 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Luster Gary | officer | Award / grant | 3,000 | 33,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Neumann Christopher | officer | Award / grant | 4,500 | 84,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | SHAR JONATHAN | officer | Award / grant | 60,000 | 354,940 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-11 | Madnani Sean V | director | Award / grant | 23,867 | 51,738 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-11 | WALKER KATHRYN EBERLE | director | Award / grant | 23,867 | 44,415 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-11 | HOFFMAN EMILY | director | Award / grant | 23,867 | 51,738 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-11 | Singer Eric | director | Award / grant | 23,867 | 156,738 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-11 | MARTIN WILLIAM C | director | Award / grant | 23,867 | 169,738 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-11 | Warren Denise | director | Award / grant | 23,867 | 44,415 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-12 | Neumann Christopher | officer | Award / grant | 80,000 | 80,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-12 | Luster Gary | officer | Award / grant | 30,000 | 30,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-21 | Snagusky Jason | officer | Award / grant | 60,000 | 81,195 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.