Issued 2026-09-16 at $63.60 · now $63.60 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BMY has typically landed between $57.64 and $71.03 — a range of −9.4% to +11.7% from the issuance price $63.60.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($63.60) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where BMY has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $63.6 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $63.6 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $63.72 (+0.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $60.86–$66.58
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $57.64–$71.03
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −29.3% | −29.3% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-19 | −25.8% | −25.8% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-20 | −25.7% | −25.7% | +0.7% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-23 | +32.4% | +0.0% | +34.0% |
| 2020-03-19 | +27.5% | −4.9% | +27.5% |
| 2009-03-03 | +27.3% | +0.0% | +27.3% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 54 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$252.02
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 27.4× · n=54$97.69
- Analyst target · range $40.00–$75.00$65.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$63.60
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Massacesi Cristian | officer | Sale | 6,249 @ $64.57 | $403K | −25.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 18,748 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Holzer Phil M | officer | Sale | 500 @ $67.50 | $34K | −2.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 16,862 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Elkins David V | director | Sale | 25,519 @ $61.60 | $1.6M | −13.5% of holding | −14.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 163,729 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Elkins David V | director | Sale | 4,481 @ $62.05 | $278K | −2.7% of holding | −14.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 159,248 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | Elkins David V | director | Sale | 56,000 @ $47.33 | $2.7M | −25.1% of holding | −4.6% | +27.2% | 167,379 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-02 | Short Bartie Wendy | officer | Sale | 378 @ $44.23 | $17K | −6.9% of holding | +4.2% | +17.1% | 5,066 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-09 | Hickey Benjamin | director | Sale | 97 @ $38.01 | $4K | −100.0% of holding | +0.7% | −16.3% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-25 | Hirawat Samit | director | Purchase | 4,250 @ $47.58 | $202K | +5.4% of holding | −9.5% | −29.7% | 83,513 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
292 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Short Bartie Wendy | officer | Option exercise | 1,236 | 13,317 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Short Bartie Wendy | officer | Withheld for tax | 633 | 12,684 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Short Bartie Wendy | officer | Option exercise | 1,236 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Massacesi Cristian | officer | Withheld for tax | 26,175 | 24,997 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Gallman Cari | officer | Withheld for tax | 543 | 13,649 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Gallman Cari | officer | Option exercise | 1,061 | 14,192 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Massacesi Cristian | officer | Option exercise | 51,172 | 153,519 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Massacesi Cristian | officer | Option exercise | 51,172 | 51,172 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Gallman Cari | officer | Option exercise | 1,061 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Samuels Theodore R. II | director | Award / grant | 889 | 70,361 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Rice Derica W | director | Award / grant | 673 | 41,069 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Arduini Peter J | director | Award / grant | 607 | 72,816 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | McMullen Michael R. | director | Award / grant | 607 | 16,333 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | YALE PHYLLIS R | director | Award / grant | 607 | 44,986 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Haller Julia A | director | Option exercise | 20,460 | 34,079 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Haller Julia A | director | Option exercise | 20,460 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Short Bartie Wendy | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,876 | 12,081 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Short Bartie Wendy | officer | Option exercise | 8,040 | 15,957 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Short Bartie Wendy | officer | Option exercise | 8,040 | 8,040 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Lenkowsky Adam | officer | Withheld for tax | 599 | 19,706 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Lenkowsky Adam | officer | Option exercise | 1,373 | 1,375 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Lenkowsky Adam | officer | Other acquisition | 203 | 20,305 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Lenkowsky Adam | officer | Option exercise | 1,373 | 20,508 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Shanahan Karin | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,692 | 25,888 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Shanahan Karin | officer | Option exercise | 3,307 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Shanahan Karin | officer | Option exercise | 3,307 | 27,580 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Samuels Theodore R. II | director | Award / grant | 845 | 68,728 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Rice Derica W | director | Award / grant | 639 | 39,964 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | YALE PHYLLIS R | director | Award / grant | 577 | 43,904 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | McMullen Michael R. | director | Award / grant | 577 | 15,557 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Arduini Peter J | director | Award / grant | 577 | 71,435 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | BOERNER CHRISTOPHER S. | director | Withheld for tax | 10,518 | 17,029 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Elkins David V | director | Withheld for tax | 10,240 | 189,248 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Shanahan Karin | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,145 | 24,273 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | BOERNER CHRISTOPHER S. | director | Withheld for tax | 4,632 | 21,451 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Meyers Gregory Scott | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,267 | 30,361 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Plenge Robert M | director | Withheld for tax | 3,172 | 21,528 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Lenkowsky Adam | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,125 | 17,086 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | BOERNER CHRISTOPHER S. | director | Withheld for tax | 3,073 | 6,984 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | BOERNER CHRISTOPHER S. | director | Withheld for tax | 3,006 | 4,051 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-16 | $1–15K |
| Mike Kelly | House | sale | 2026-06-11 | 2026-05-07 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-05 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-23 | $1–15K |
| Julie Johnson | House | sale | 2026-01-15 | 2025-12-18 | $1–15K |
| Julia Letlow | House | sale | 2026-01-13 | 2025-04-28 | $1–15K |
| Julia Letlow | House | purchase | 2026-01-13 | 2024-10-23 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-01-12 | 2025-12-19 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2025-12-15 | 2025-11-12 | $1–15K |
| Julie Johnson | House | sale | 2025-12-11 | 2025-11-13 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.