Issued 2026-09-16 at $27.77 · now $27.77 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BMRC has typically landed between $24.32 and $32.26 — a range of −12.4% to +16.2% from the issuance price $27.77.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($27.77) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where BMRC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $27.77 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $27.77 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $27.56 (-0.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $25.78–$29.34
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $24.32–$32.26
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-20 | −42.5% | −42.5% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-21 | −40.8% | −42.0% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-13 | −39.4% | −39.4% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-06-26 | +52.1% | +0.0% | +52.1% |
| 2024-06-25 | +50.9% | +0.0% | +50.9% |
| 2024-06-21 | +46.4% | −0.4% | +46.4% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | Anderson Nicolas C | director | Purchase | 175 @ $28.88 | $5K | +1.3% of holding | −10.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,786 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-30 | Anderson Nicolas C | director | Purchase | 200 @ $25.68 | $5K | +1.6% of holding | −5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,762 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
140 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Bloom David A | officer | Withheld for tax | 604 | 22,357 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Sobel Brian M | director | Other acquisition | 849 | 34,696 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Gencer Cigdem | director | Other acquisition | 849 | 5,671 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Watson Secil Tabli | director | Other acquisition | 849 | 11,005 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Kennedy Kevin R | director | Other acquisition | 849 | 30,050 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Anderson Nicolas C | director | Other acquisition | 849 | 13,611 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | FITE CHARLES D | director | Other acquisition | 849 | 116,333 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | HALE JAMES C III | director | Other acquisition | 849 | 18,853 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Colombo Russell A | director | Other acquisition | 849 | 44,409 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Sklar Joel | director | Other acquisition | 849 | 126,418 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Bloom David A | officer | Withheld for tax | 604 | 22,961 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Bonaccorso David | officer | Withheld for tax | 296 | 17,764 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Myers Timothy D | director | Other acquisition | 280 | 125,408 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Myers Timothy D | director | Other acquisition | 314 | 17,363 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Gotelli Robert | officer | Other acquisition | 357 | 19,661 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Campbell Brandi | officer | Other acquisition | 69 | 4,128 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Stewart Misako | officer | Other acquisition | 109 | 6,561 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Sathis Arasadi | officer | Other acquisition | 31 | 2,086 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-25 | Campbell Brandi | officer | Other acquisition | 2,817 | 22,540 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-25 | Gotelli Robert | officer | Other acquisition | 2,212 | 36,460 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-25 | Stewart Misako | officer | Other acquisition | 3,222 | 27,785 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-25 | Myers Timothy D | director | Other acquisition | 10,755 | 124,173 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Myers Timothy D | director | Withheld for tax | 1,037 | 134,928 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Bonaccorso David | officer | Withheld for tax | 278 | 18,060 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Stewart Misako | officer | Withheld for tax | 254 | 31,007 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Campbell Brandi | officer | Withheld for tax | 253 | 25,357 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Sathis Arasadi | officer | Withheld for tax | 245 | 18,638 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Myers Timothy D | director | Withheld for tax | 1,697 | 135,965 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Stewart Misako | officer | Withheld for tax | 536 | 31,261 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Campbell Brandi | officer | Withheld for tax | 468 | 25,610 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Sathis Arasadi | officer | Withheld for tax | 260 | 18,883 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Bonaccorso David | officer | Award / grant | 7,291 | 18,338 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Sathis Arasadi | officer | Award / grant | 6,393 | 19,143 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Campbell Brandi | officer | Award / grant | 6,454 | 26,078 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Myers Timothy D | director | Award / grant | 37,403 | 137,662 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Gotelli Robert | officer | Award / grant | 4,701 | 38,672 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Stewart Misako | officer | Award / grant | 6,492 | 31,797 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Bloom David A | officer | Award / grant | 6,496 | 23,565 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Colombo Russell A | director | Code H | 14,820 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Stewart Misako | officer | Code H | 900 | 0 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.