Issued 2026-08-13 at $1.28 · now $1.28 (2026-08-13, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-08-13 close, BMEA has typically landed between $0.83 and $1.90 — a range of −35.2% to +48.4% from the issuance price $1.28.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,315 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-04-15 – 2026-07-15 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.8% (90% CI 51.6–56.0%, ≈1,400 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-08-13 issuance close ($1.28) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-09-11, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where BMEA has typically landed a month from the 2026-08-13 close of $1.28 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $1.28 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $1.23 (-4.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $1.01–$1.45
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $0.8295–$1.9
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2024-05-16 | −62.1% | −66.3% | +0.0% |
| 2024-05-15 | −61.6% | −67.4% | +0.0% |
| 2024-05-28 | −61.4% | −63.0% | +1.6% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2023-02-27 | +156.9% | +0.0% | +156.9% |
| 2022-06-01 | +150.6% | +0.0% | +170.3% |
| 2023-02-28 | +148.8% | +0.0% | +151.9% |
1,315 overlapping windows · 2021-04-15 – 2026-08-13 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- March 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: Phase 2 Trial of Icovamenib in Participants With Type 2 Diabetes Who Are Not Achieving Glycemic Targets (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- June 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: Phase 2 Trial of Icovamenib in Participants With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Who Are Not Achieving Glycemic Targets While Using GLP-1-Based Therapy (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Company insiders iOpen-market share purchases and sales by the company's own officers and directors, by filing date.
Last 90 days · as of 2026-08-13 · point-in-time by filing date
No insider transactions on record in the last 90 days.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. Full terms.