Issued 2026-09-25 at $1.32 · now $1.32 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, BMEA has typically landed between $0.86 and $1.98 — a range of −35.2% to +50.4% from the issuance price $1.32.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,345 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-04-15 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($1.32) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where BMEA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $1.32 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $1.32 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $1.27 (-3.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $1.03–$1.51
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $0.8556–$1.98
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2024-05-16 | −62.1% | −66.3% | +0.0% |
| 2024-05-15 | −61.6% | −67.4% | +0.0% |
| 2024-05-28 | −61.4% | −63.0% | +1.6% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2023-02-27 | +156.9% | +0.0% | +156.9% |
| 2022-06-01 | +150.6% | +0.0% | +170.3% |
| 2023-02-28 | +148.8% | +0.0% | +151.9% |
1,345 overlapping windows · 2021-04-15 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- March 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: Phase 2 Trial of Icovamenib in Participants With Type 2 Diabetes Who Are Not Achieving Glycemic Targets (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- June 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: Phase 2 Trial of Icovamenib in Participants With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Who Are Not Achieving Glycemic Targets While Using GLP-1-Based Therapy (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-11 | Erdtmann Rainer M | director | Purchase | 30,000 @ $1.43 | $43K | +4.3% of holding | −1.0% | −31.2% | 723,027 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-02 | Hitchcock Michael J.M. | director | Purchase | 100,000 @ $0.99 | $99K | +666.7% of holding | +39.4% | +31.4% | 115,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | Erdtmann Rainer M | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $1.05 | $11K | +1.5% of holding | +22.2% | +17.2% | 693,027 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-28 | Erdtmann Rainer M | director | Purchase | 40,000 @ $1.10 | $44K | +6.2% of holding | +11.1% | +13.9% | 683,027 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-09-30 | Hitchcock Michael J.M. | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $10.06 | $101K | +200.0% of holding | +18.0% | −77.6% | 15,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-06-11 | Valle Franco | officer | Purchase | 12,509 @ $4.43 | $55K | +41.7% of holding | +14.8% | +17.1% | 42,500 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
28 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-10 | Averill Julianne | director | Award / grant | 173,711 | 173,711 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | AGUIAR ERIC | director | Award / grant | 196,299 | 196,299 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Faust Elizabeth | director | Award / grant | 196,299 | 196,299 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Ray Sumita | director | Award / grant | 196,299 | 196,299 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Erdtmann Rainer M | director | Award / grant | 452,512 | 452,512 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Hitchcock Michael J.M. | director | Award / grant | 667,477 | 667,477 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-11 | Hitchcock Michael J.M. | director | Award / grant | 916,434 | 916,434 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-11 | Erdtmann Rainer M | director | Award / grant | 1,246,989 | 1,246,989 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-22 | Averill Julianne | director | Award / grant | 241,177 | 241,177 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-11 | Ray Sumita | director | Award / grant | 91,970 | 91,970 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-11 | AGUIAR ERIC | director | Award / grant | 91,970 | 91,970 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-11 | Chen Bihua | director | Award / grant | 91,970 | 91,970 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-11 | Faust Elizabeth | director | Award / grant | 91,970 | 91,970 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-26 | Hitchcock Michael J.M. | director | Award / grant | 350,000 | 350,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-31 | Erdtmann Rainer M | director | Gift | 10,000 | 20,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-31 | Erdtmann Rainer M | director | Gift | 10,000 | 663,027 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-31 | Erdtmann Rainer M | director | Gift | 10,000 | 19,400 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-31 | Erdtmann Rainer M | director | Gift | 10,000 | 653,027 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-31 | Erdtmann Rainer M | director | Gift | 10,000 | 643,027 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-28 | Erdtmann Rainer M | director | Gift | 40,000 | 673,027 | Form 4 |
| 2024-11-30 | Valle Franco | officer | Award / grant | 495 | 42,995 | Form 4 |
| 2024-06-12 | Ray Sumita | director | Award / grant | 51,025 | 51,025 | Form 4 |
| 2024-06-12 | Chen Bihua | director | Award / grant | 51,025 | 51 | Form 4 |
| 2024-06-12 | AGUIAR ERIC | director | Award / grant | 51,025 | 51,025 | Form 4 |
| 2024-06-12 | Hitchcock Michael J.M. | director | Award / grant | 51,025 | 51,025 | Form 4 |
| 2024-06-12 | Faust Elizabeth | director | Award / grant | 51,025 | 51,025 | Form 4 |
| 2024-05-31 | Valle Franco | officer | Award / grant | 4,448 | 29,991 | Form 4 |
| 2024-05-31 | Frias Juan Pablo | officer | Award / grant | 349 | 349 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.