Issued 2026-09-25 at $167.33 · now $167.33 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, BLTE has typically landed between $130.28 and $239.22 — a range of −22.1% to +43.0% from the issuance price $167.33.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,085 overlapping 1 month windows · 2022-04-29 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($167.33) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where BLTE has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $167.33 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $167.33 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $173.34 (+3.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $155.46–$191.23
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $130.28–$239.22
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,085 windows spanning 2022-04-29 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2023-05-23 | −52.8% | −52.8% | +0.9% |
| 2023-05-22 | −48.9% | −48.9% | +0.0% |
| 2023-05-05 | −46.5% | −46.5% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2022-06-02 | +196.3% | +0.0% | +196.3% |
| 2022-06-07 | +180.9% | +0.0% | +187.6% |
| 2022-06-03 | +175.0% | +0.0% | +194.3% |
1,085 overlapping windows · 2022-04-29 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- 2027-06-30 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Phase 3, Randomized, Placebo-Controlled Study of Tinlarebant to Explore Safety and Efficacy in Geographic Atrophy (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- February 2028 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2/Phase PHASE3 primary completion: A Phase 2/3 Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Tinlarebant in Subjects With Stargardt Disease (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~5 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
25%
−2.1%
n=4
Feb
75%
+7.1%
n=4
Mar
25%
−6.8%
n=4
Apr
25%
−1.2%
n=4
May
60%
+3.3%
n=5
Jun
40%
+16.3%
n=5
Jul
100%
+18.9%
n=5
Aug
20%
+7.4%
n=5
Sep
60%
+3.7%
n=5
Oct
75%
+22.4%
n=4
Nov
75%
+12.4%
n=4
Dec
50%
+4.2%
n=4
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Lin Yu-Hsin | director | Sale | 8,752 @ $197.36 | $1.7M | −10.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 72,834 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Lin Yu-Hsin | director | Sale | 6,090 @ $195.62 | $1.2M | −6.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 87,644 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Lin Yu-Hsin | director | Sale | 6,058 @ $196.54 | $1.2M | −6.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 81,586 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Chuang Hao-Yuan | director | Sale | 4,605 @ $197.23 | $908K | −13.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 28,600 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Chuang Hao-Yuan | director | Sale | 4,475 @ $196.47 | $879K | −11.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 33,205 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Chuang Hao-Yuan | director | Sale | 4,120 @ $195.60 | $806K | −9.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 37,680 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Lin Yu-Hsin | director | Sale | 2,700 @ $198.09 | $535K | −3.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 70,134 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Chuang Hao-Yuan | director | Sale | 2,562 @ $198.05 | $507K | −9.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 26,038 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Lin Yu-Hsin | director | Sale | 2,400 @ $194.33 | $466K | −2.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 93,734 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Chuang Hao-Yuan | director | Sale | 2,200 @ $194.28 | $427K | −5.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 41,800 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Lin Yu-Hsin | director | Sale | 11,080 @ $191.15 | $2.1M | −9.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 108,454 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Lin Yu-Hsin | director | Sale | 8,955 @ $189.34 | $1.7M | −6.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 120,134 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Lin Yu-Hsin | director | Sale | 8,111 @ $193.13 | $1.6M | −7.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 96,134 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Lin Yu-Hsin | director | Sale | 7,800 @ $186.32 | $1.5M | −5.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 138,334 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Chuang Hao-Yuan | director | Sale | 6,200 @ $191.09 | $1.2M | −10.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 52,000 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Chuang Hao-Yuan | director | Sale | 6,200 @ $189.22 | $1.2M | −9.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 60,000 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Lin Yu-Hsin | director | Sale | 6,200 @ $187.25 | $1.2M | −4.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 132,134 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Lin Yu-Hsin | director | Sale | 6,252 @ $184.52 | $1.2M | −4.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 150,727 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Lin Yu-Hsin | director | Sale | 4,955 @ $183.30 | $908K | −3.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 156,979 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Chuang Hao-Yuan | director | Sale | 4,602 @ $193.12 | $889K | −9.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 44,000 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Chuang Hao-Yuan | director | Sale | 4,600 @ $186.34 | $857K | −6.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 72,000 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Lin Yu-Hsin | director | Sale | 4,593 @ $185.34 | $851K | −3.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 146,134 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Lin Yu-Hsin | director | Sale | 4,209 @ $192.54 | $810K | −3.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 104,245 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Chuang Hao-Yuan | director | Sale | 3,900 @ $187.16 | $730K | −5.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 68,100 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Chuang Hao-Yuan | director | Sale | 3,872 @ $185.28 | $717K | −4.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 76,600 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Chuang Hao-Yuan | director | Sale | 3,759 @ $183.27 | $689K | −4.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 84,041 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Chuang Hao-Yuan | director | Sale | 3,569 @ $184.57 | $659K | −4.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 80,472 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Chuang Hao-Yuan | director | Sale | 3,398 @ $192.40 | $654K | −6.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 48,602 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Lin Yu-Hsin | director | Sale | 3,413 @ $182.50 | $623K | −2.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 161,934 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Lin Yu-Hsin | director | Sale | 3,045 @ $188.26 | $573K | −2.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 129,089 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Lin Yu-Hsin | director | Sale | 2,635 @ $180.29 | $475K | −1.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 167,934 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Lin Yu-Hsin | director | Sale | 2,587 @ $181.24 | $469K | −1.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 165,347 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Chuang Hao-Yuan | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $182.49 | $365K | −2.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 87,800 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Chuang Hao-Yuan | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $181.05 | $362K | −2.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 89,800 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Chuang Hao-Yuan | director | Sale | 1,900 @ $188.59 | $358K | −2.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 66,200 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Chuang Hao-Yuan | director | Sale | 1,800 @ $190.63 | $343K | −3.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 58,200 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Chuang Hao-Yuan | director | Sale | 1,633 @ $180.16 | $294K | −1.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 91,800 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Lin Yu-Hsin | director | Sale | 600 @ $190.39 | $114K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 119,534 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Lin Yu-Hsin | director | Sale | 223 @ $180.57 | $40K | −0.1% of holding | −1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 170,569 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Chuang Hao-Yuan | director | Sale | 223 @ $180.57 | $40K | −0.2% of holding | −1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 93,433 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Chuang Hao-Yuan | director | Sale | 144 @ $180.00 | $26K | −0.2% of holding | −1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 93,656 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Lin Yu-Hsin | director | Sale | 142 @ $180.00 | $26K | −0.1% of holding | −1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 170,792 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Scholl Hendrik Peter | officer | Sale | 4,861 @ $145.43 | $707K | −23.0% of holding | +10.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,295 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Scholl Hendrik Peter | officer | Sale | 3,748 @ $144.66 | $542K | −15.0% of holding | +10.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,156 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Scholl Hendrik Peter | officer | Sale | 1,199 @ $146.24 | $175K | −7.4% of holding | +10.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,096 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Scholl Hendrik Peter | officer | Sale | 96 @ $147.11 | $14K | −0.6% of holding | +10.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Scholl Hendrik Peter | officer | Sale | 96 @ $143.90 | $14K | −0.4% of holding | +10.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,904 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Scholl Hendrik Peter | officer | Sale | 3,140 @ $139.57 | $438K | −9.8% of holding | +9.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 29,022 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Scholl Hendrik Peter | officer | Sale | 2,054 @ $137.61 | $283K | −5.9% of holding | +9.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 32,946 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Scholl Hendrik Peter | officer | Sale | 1,897 @ $143.55 | $272K | −6.8% of holding | +9.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 26,035 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Scholl Hendrik Peter | officer | Sale | 1,035 @ $145.02 | $150K | −4.0% of holding | +9.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 25,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Scholl Hendrik Peter | officer | Sale | 784 @ $138.18 | $108K | −2.4% of holding | +9.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 32,162 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Scholl Hendrik Peter | officer | Sale | 540 @ $140.58 | $76K | −1.9% of holding | +9.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,482 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Scholl Hendrik Peter | officer | Sale | 450 @ $142.20 | $64K | −1.6% of holding | +9.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 27,932 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Scholl Hendrik Peter | officer | Sale | 100 @ $141.83 | $14K | −0.4% of holding | +9.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,382 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | MATA NATHAN L. | officer | Sale | 428 @ $153.56 | $66K | −97.3% of holding | −11.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 12 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | MATA NATHAN L. | officer | Sale | 226 @ $152.45 | $34K | −33.9% of holding | −11.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 440 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | MATA NATHAN L. | officer | Sale | 9 @ $155.25 | $1K | −100.0% of holding | −11.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | MATA NATHAN L. | officer | Sale | 3 @ $154.61 | $464 | −25.0% of holding | −11.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 9 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | MATA NATHAN L. | officer | Sale | 424 @ $152.67 | $65K | −25.6% of holding | −8.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,234 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
7 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-21 | Lin Yu-Hsin | director | Other acquisition | 10,000 | 182,949 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | Chuang Hao-Yuan | director | Other acquisition | 10,000 | 205,264 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | Scholl Hendrik Peter | officer | Other acquisition | 10,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Chuang Hao-Yuan | director | Award / grant | 144,868 | 289,736 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Chen Wan-Shan | director | Award / grant | 13,796 | 13,796 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | MATA NATHAN L. | officer | Award / grant | 144,868 | 267,934 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Lin Yu-Hsin | director | Award / grant | 206,954 | 413,908 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.