Issued 2026-09-16 at $32.08 · now $32.08 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BLSH has typically landed between $21.01 and $42.65 — a range of −34.5% to +33.0% from the issuance price $32.08.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
254 overlapping 1 month windows · 2025-08-13 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($32.08) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where BLSH has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $32.08 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $32.08 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $30.34 (-5.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $25.83–$34.85
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $21.01–$42.65
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-05-11 | −40.7% | −40.7% | +0.0% |
| 2026-01-06 | −39.6% | −39.6% | +0.0% |
| 2026-05-06 | −39.2% | −39.2% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-08-06 | +56.3% | +0.0% | +57.2% |
| 2026-07-31 | +56.2% | +0.0% | +56.2% |
| 2026-07-29 | +53.7% | −0.2% | +53.7% |
254 overlapping windows · 2025-08-13 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~2 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | Farley Thomas W | director | Sale | 50,146 @ $44.27 | $2.2M | −93.8% of holding | −38.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,304 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Farley Thomas W | director | Sale | 21,050 @ $43.47 | $915K | −28.3% of holding | −38.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 53,450 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Farley Thomas W | director | Sale | 5,500 @ $42.25 | $232K | −6.9% of holding | −38.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 74,500 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Farley Thomas W | director | Sale | 3,304 @ $44.95 | $149K | −100.0% of holding | −38.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Farley Thomas W | director | Sale | 247 @ $0.00 | $0 | +0.0% of holding | −39.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,973,528 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Farley Thomas W | director | Sale | 247 @ $0.00 | $0 | −0.0% of holding | −39.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,973,281 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-10 | Farley Thomas W | director | Sale | 49,042 @ $36.56 | $1.8M | −1.0% of holding | +12.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,972,428 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-10 | Farley Thomas W | director | Sale | 29,858 @ $36.13 | $1.1M | −0.6% of holding | +12.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,923,386 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-10 | Farley Thomas W | director | Sale | 1,100 @ $37.34 | $41K | −0.0% of holding | +12.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,973,528 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
13 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Bliss Andrew | director | Award / grant | 5,877 | 10,016 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Blumer Brendan Francis | director | Award / grant | 5,877 | 39,167,885 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Wynn Andrew Charles | director | Award / grant | 5,877 | 18,287 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Simon Karen Jo | director | Award / grant | 5,877 | 36,494 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Yuan Kokuei | director | Award / grant | 5,877 | 36,463,053 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Wynn Andrew Charles | director | Award / grant | 2,063 | 12,410 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-27 | Farley Thomas W | director | Option exercise | 80,000 | 4,893,528 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-27 | Farley Thomas W | director | Option exercise | 80,000 | 80,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-27 | Farley Thomas W | director | Option exercise | 80,000 | 80,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-02 | Blumer Brendan Francis | director | Exercise | 7,813 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-02 | Farley Thomas W | director | Option exercise | 80,000 | 4,973,528 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-02 | Farley Thomas W | director | Option exercise | 80,000 | 80,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-02 | Farley Thomas W | director | Option exercise | 80,000 | 80,000 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.