BLMN · TickerCove

BLMNBloomin' Brands, Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Restaurantsas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $8.04 · now $8.04 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BLMN has typically landed between $6.34 and $9.81 — a range of −21.2% to +22.0% from the issuance price $8.04.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

3,525 overlapping 1 month windows · 2012-08-08 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($8.04) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$8.04 · 42% of range

$5.26 low$11.85 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−1.3%

typical move · IQR 16.4%

−21.2%worst (p90)+22.0%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where BLMN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $8.04 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $8.04 (+0.0%)
typical $7.94 (-1.3%)
middle 50% $7.28–$8.6
90% range $6.34–$9.81

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,525 windows spanning 2012-08-08 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-20	−78.8%	−78.8%	+2.2%
2020-02-21	−76.3%	−79.2%	+0.0%
2020-02-18	−74.9%	−74.9%	+5.2%
3 best
2020-03-30	+99.5%	−14.0%	+99.5%
2020-03-20	+80.3%	+0.0%	+92.4%
2020-04-02	+73.4%	−3.0%	+125.0%

3,525 overlapping windows · 2012-08-08 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~15 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

50%

+2.5%

n=14

Feb

71%

+2.6%

n=14

Mar

36%

−5.7%

n=14

Apr

57%

+8.3%

n=14

May

21%

−0.8%

n=14

Jun

43%

−0.9%

n=14

Jul

43%

−0.5%

n=14

Aug

50%

+0.4%

n=14

Sep

47%

−1.5%

n=15

Oct

57%

−0.6%

n=14

Nov

71%

+6.1%

n=14

Dec

29%

−0.7%

n=14

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-03-11	Lal Rohit	director	Purchase	10,000 @ $5.69	$57K	+49.6% of holding	+3.3%	+39.5%	30,156	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-05	Kunkel Julie T.	director	Purchase	1,000 @ $6.46	$6K	+19.7% of holding	−6.9%	+38.4%	6,065	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-11	Hafner Patrick M	officer	Sale	4,256 @ $6.41	$27K	−34.7% of holding	+11.5%	+18.0%	8,000	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-11	Kunkel Julie T.	director	Purchase	1,500 @ $6.37	$10K	+42.1% of holding	+11.5%	+18.0%	5,065	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-10	Christel Eric C	officer	Purchase	150,000 @ $6.38	$957K	ownership Δ n/a	+7.9%	+19.8%	150,000	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-05	Spanos Mike	director	Purchase	118,000 @ $8.63	$1.0M	ownership Δ n/a	−7.7%	−24.0%	118,000	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-04	Hafner Patrick M	officer	Sale	9,555 @ $8.32	$79K	−100.0% of holding	−1.7%	−22.6%	0	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-28	Lal Rohit	director	Purchase	10,000 @ $9.62	$96K	+248.9% of holding	−16.7%	−26.4%	14,018	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-28	Kunkel Julie T.	director	Purchase	1,500 @ $9.94	$15K	+72.6% of holding	−16.7%	−26.4%	3,565	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

290 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-03	Hafner Patrick M	officer	Withheld for tax	1,973	37,301	Form 4
2026-09-03	Lefferts Kelly	officer	Withheld for tax	1,579	134,144	Form 4
2026-09-03	Pace Philip J	officer	Withheld for tax	790	59,497	Form 4
2026-09-03	Hafner Patrick M	officer	Option exercise	8,102	39,274	Form 4
2026-09-03	Lefferts Kelly	officer	Option exercise	6,481	0	Form 4
2026-09-03	Lefferts Kelly	officer	Option exercise	6,481	135,723	Form 4
2026-09-03	Hafner Patrick M	officer	Option exercise	8,102	0	Form 4
2026-09-03	Pace Philip J	officer	Option exercise	3,241	60,287	Form 4
2026-09-03	Pace Philip J	officer	Option exercise	3,241	0	Form 4
2026-09-02	Christel Eric C	officer	Withheld for tax	6,125	169,026	Form 4
2026-09-02	Lefferts Kelly	officer	Withheld for tax	3,747	129,242	Form 4
2026-09-02	Pace Philip J	officer	Withheld for tax	3,747	57,046	Form 4
2026-09-02	Christel Eric C	officer	Option exercise	25,151	50,304	Form 4
2026-09-02	Pace Philip J	officer	Option exercise	15,385	60,793	Form 4
2026-09-02	Lefferts Kelly	officer	Option exercise	15,385	0	Form 4
2026-09-02	Christel Eric C	officer	Option exercise	25,151	175,151	Form 4
2026-09-02	Lefferts Kelly	officer	Option exercise	15,385	132,989	Form 4
2026-09-02	Pace Philip J	officer	Option exercise	15,385	0	Form 4
2026-04-22	Kunkel Julie T.	director	Award / grant	23,485	23,485	Form 4
2026-04-22	Kunkel Julie T.	director	Option exercise	19,746	0	Form 4
2026-04-22	MAHONEY JOHN	director	Award / grant	23,485	23,485	Form 4
2026-04-22	MAHONEY JOHN	director	Option exercise	19,746	0	Form 4
2026-04-22	MOHAN RAJENDRA M	director	Option exercise	30,574	84,341	Form 4
2026-04-22	Marein-Efron Melanie	director	Option exercise	19,746	0	Form 4
2026-04-22	DINKINS JAMES L	director	Award / grant	23,485	23,485	Form 4
2026-04-22	DINKINS JAMES L	director	Option exercise	19,746	0	Form 4
2026-04-22	GEORGE DAVID C	director	Option exercise	25,478	34,047	Form 4
2026-04-22	GEORGE DAVID C	director	Award / grant	23,485	23,485	Form 4
2026-04-22	GEORGE DAVID C	director	Option exercise	25,478	0	Form 4
2026-04-22	Sagal Jonathan	director	Option exercise	19,746	27,119	Form 4
2026-04-22	Keating Colleen	director	Option exercise	5,592	5,592	Form 4
2026-04-22	Keating Colleen	director	Award / grant	23,485	23,485	Form 4
2026-04-22	MAHONEY JOHN	director	Option exercise	19,746	97,580	Form 4
2026-04-22	Keating Colleen	director	Option exercise	5,592	0	Form 4
2026-04-22	Sagal Jonathan	director	Option exercise	19,746	0	Form 4
2026-04-22	Levy Tara Walpert	director	Option exercise	19,746	89,622	Form 4
2026-04-22	Levy Tara Walpert	director	Option exercise	19,746	0	Form 4
2026-04-22	Lal Rohit	director	Option exercise	19,746	49,902	Form 4
2026-04-22	Lal Rohit	director	Award / grant	23,485	23,485	Form 4
2026-04-22	Lal Rohit	director	Option exercise	19,746	0	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i