BLKB · TickerCove

BLKBBlackbaud, Inc.Technology · Software - Applicationas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $44.82 · now $44.82 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BLKB has typically landed between $37.72 and $51.27 — a range of −15.8% to +14.4% from the issuance price $44.82.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($44.82) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$44.82 · 43% of range

$26.54 low$69.13 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−0.5%

typical move · IQR 11.8%

−15.8%worst (p90)+14.4%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where BLKB has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $44.82 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $44.82 (+0.0%)
typical $44.58 (-0.5%)
middle 50% $41.94–$47.21
90% range $37.72–$51.27

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-18	−49.1%	−49.1%	+0.0%
2020-02-13	−45.7%	−45.7%	+0.0%
2020-02-14	−44.5%	−45.2%	+0.0%
3 best
2026-07-08	+61.9%	+0.0%	+61.9%
2026-07-09	+56.9%	+0.0%	+58.5%
2026-07-06	+55.4%	−2.2%	+55.4%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

50%

−1.0%

n=20

Feb

45%

−2.5%

n=20

Mar

65%

+2.4%

n=20

Apr

40%

+0.4%

n=20

May

65%

+0.2%

n=20

Jun

50%

+1.5%

n=20

Jul

70%

+5.1%

n=20

Aug

60%

+1.0%

n=20

Sep

35%

−1.2%

n=20

Oct

45%

+0.7%

n=20

Nov

65%

+1.5%

n=20

Dec

65%

+1.4%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-01	Anderson Chad	officer	Sale	2,000 @ $47.56	$95K	−3.2% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	59,883	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-31	Benjamin David J	officer	Sale	2,086 @ $48.27	$101K	−2.9% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	71,038	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-25	Gianoni Michael P	director	Sale	17,000 @ $47.35	$805K	−3.9% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	423,264	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-06	Gregoire Kevin P.	officer	Sale	16,184 @ $45.43	$735K	−12.0% of holding	+1.4%	not yet — horizon still open	119,010	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-06	Gregoire Kevin P.	officer	Sale	5,816 @ $45.72	$266K	−4.9% of holding	+1.4%	not yet — horizon still open	113,194	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-01	Anderson Chad	officer	Sale	6,205 @ $31.31	$194K	−9.0% of holding	−6.6%	not yet — horizon still open	62,869	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-04	Gregoire Kevin P.	officer	Sale	2,000 @ $50.02	$100K	−1.5% of holding	−19.6%	−16.9%	135,194	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-03	Olson Jon W	officer	Sale	5,000 @ $49.10	$246K	−12.2% of holding	−22.0%	−17.7%	35,939	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-27	Olson Jon W	officer	Sale	10,000 @ $48.23	$482K	−19.6% of holding	−14.3%	−12.6%	40,939	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-24	Benjamin David J	officer	Sale	14,349 @ $47.47	$681K	−16.4% of holding	−12.5%	−11.6%	73,124	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-23	McDearis Kevin	officer	Sale	14,974 @ $46.38	$695K	−14.0% of holding	−7.7%	−8.6%	92,244	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-23	McDearis Kevin	officer	Sale	488 @ $47.76	$23K	−0.5% of holding	−7.7%	−8.6%	91,756	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-18	Benjamin David J	officer	Sale	7,990 @ $49.41	$395K	−7.8% of holding	−6.7%	−19.4%	94,003	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-21	Hollenbeck Rupal S	director	Sale	1,600 @ $56.49	$90K	−20.1% of holding	+7.6%	−61.3%	6,366	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-06	Gianoni Michael P	director	Sale	3,692 @ $57.30	$212K	−1.0% of holding	+5.2%	−50.6%	374,293	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-06	Gianoni Michael P	director	Sale	1,260 @ $58.73	$74K	−0.3% of holding	+5.2%	−50.6%	373,033	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-06	Gianoni Michael P	director	Sale	48 @ $59.71	$3K	−0.0% of holding	+5.2%	−50.6%	372,985	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-05	Gianoni Michael P	director	Sale	2,295 @ $59.52	$137K	−0.6% of holding	+5.7%	−46.5%	380,690	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-05	Gianoni Michael P	director	Sale	1,856 @ $60.31	$112K	−0.5% of holding	+5.7%	−46.5%	378,834	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-05	Gianoni Michael P	director	Sale	849 @ $62.30	$53K	−0.2% of holding	+5.7%	−46.5%	377,985	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-04	Gianoni Michael P	director	Sale	3,952 @ $62.18	$246K	−1.0% of holding	+0.1%	−48.0%	384,033	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-04	Gianoni Michael P	director	Sale	1,048 @ $63.29	$66K	−0.3% of holding	+0.1%	−48.0%	382,985	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-29	DeFiore Deneen	director	Sale	4,000 @ $66.61	$266K	−28.4% of holding	−7.2%	−30.6%	10,069	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-08-08	Hollenbeck Rupal S	director	Sale	2,500 @ $63.98	$160K	−23.9% of holding	+4.9%	−34.3%	7,966	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-07-30	Gregoire Kevin P.	officer	Sale	5,162 @ $72.17	$373K	−4.3% of holding	−9.9%	−35.6%	113,994	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-30	Gregoire Kevin P.	officer	Sale	2,038 @ $73.32	$149K	−1.8% of holding	−9.9%	−35.6%	111,956	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-30	Gregoire Kevin P.	officer	Sale	800 @ $74.26	$59K	−0.7% of holding	−9.9%	−35.6%	111,156	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-16	Anderson Chad	officer	Sale	5,500 @ $63.99	$352K	−13.3% of holding	−6.2%	−18.7%	35,976	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-02	Olson Jon W	officer	Sale	10,698 @ $61.15	$654K	−31.0% of holding	−1.0%	−16.7%	23,799	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-17	McDearis Kevin	officer	Sale	1,916 @ $63.40	$121K	−2.5% of holding	+0.3%	−11.3%	74,805	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-24	Olson Jon W	officer	Sale	3,700 @ $68.51	$253K	−9.5% of holding	−6.5%	−13.6%	35,321	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

213 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-14	Anderson Chad	officer	Withheld for tax	589	61,883	Form 4
2026-08-03	Nanney Don Roger	director	Award / grant	7,834	24,453	Form 4
2026-08-03	DeFiore Deneen	director	Award / grant	7,834	17,903	Form 4
2026-08-03	Pyburn Bradley L	director	Award / grant	7,834	13,103	Form 4
2026-08-03	Leitch Andrew M	director	Award / grant	7,834	48,035	Form 4
2026-08-03	Talvitie Kristian	director	Award / grant	7,834	15,887	Form 4
2026-05-04	Anderson Chad	officer	Withheld for tax	1,137	68,645	Form 4
2026-05-04	Anderson Chad	officer	Withheld for tax	187	69,074	Form 4
2026-05-04	Anderson Chad	officer	Award / grant	616	69,261	Form 4
2026-02-23	Gianoni Michael P	director	Withheld for tax	9,754	440,264	Form 4
2026-02-23	Gianoni Michael P	director	Withheld for tax	5,066	454,471	Form 4
2026-02-23	Gianoni Michael P	director	Withheld for tax	4,453	450,018	Form 4
2026-02-23	Gregoire Kevin P.	officer	Withheld for tax	3,019	137,194	Form 4
2026-02-23	Benjamin David J	officer	Withheld for tax	2,439	87,473	Form 4
2026-02-23	McDearis Kevin	officer	Withheld for tax	2,230	87,348	Form 4
2026-02-23	Gregoire Kevin P.	officer	Withheld for tax	1,568	141,592	Form 4
2026-02-23	Olson Jon W	officer	Withheld for tax	1,394	50,939	Form 4
2026-02-23	Gregoire Kevin P.	officer	Withheld for tax	1,379	140,213	Form 4
2026-02-23	Benjamin David J	officer	Withheld for tax	1,268	91,026	Form 4
2026-02-23	McDearis Kevin	officer	Withheld for tax	1,159	90,597	Form 4
2026-02-23	Anderson Chad	officer	Withheld for tax	1,115	69,782	Form 4
2026-02-23	Benjamin David J	officer	Withheld for tax	1,114	89,912	Form 4
2026-02-23	McDearis Kevin	officer	Withheld for tax	1,019	89,578	Form 4
2026-02-23	Olson Jon W	officer	Withheld for tax	485	52,785	Form 4
2026-02-23	Olson Jon W	officer	Withheld for tax	452	52,333	Form 4
2026-02-23	Anderson Chad	officer	Withheld for tax	193	71,067	Form 4
2026-02-23	Anderson Chad	officer	Withheld for tax	170	70,897	Form 4
2026-02-23	Benjamin David J	officer	Award / grant	2,767	92,294	Form 4
2026-02-23	Gregoire Kevin P.	officer	Award / grant	3,457	143,160	Form 4
2026-02-23	McDearis Kevin	officer	Award / grant	2,554	107,218	Form 4
2026-02-23	Anderson Chad	officer	Award / grant	425	71,260	Form 4
2026-02-23	Olson Jon W	officer	Award / grant	1,596	53,270	Form 4
2026-02-23	Gianoni Michael P	director	Award / grant	11,170	459,537	Form 4
2026-02-20	Gianoni Michael P	director	Withheld for tax	4,926	448,367	Form 4
2026-02-20	Gregoire Kevin P.	officer	Withheld for tax	3,202	139,703	Form 4
2026-02-20	Benjamin David J	officer	Withheld for tax	2,612	89,527	Form 4
2026-02-20	Gianoni Michael P	director	Withheld for tax	2,581	453,293	Form 4
2026-02-20	Gianoni Michael P	director	Withheld for tax	2,464	455,874	Form 4
2026-02-20	McDearis Kevin	officer	Withheld for tax	2,365	104,664	Form 4
2026-02-20	Gregoire Kevin P.	officer	Withheld for tax	1,678	144,507	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i