BLDRBuilders FirstSource, Inc.Industrials · Constructionas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $59.65 · now $59.65 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BLDR has typically landed between $48.66 and $72.33 — a range of −18.4% to +21.3% from the issuance price $59.65.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($59.65) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where BLDR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $59.65 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$48.66worst · -18.4%$72.33best · +21.3%
  • now $59.65 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $60.81 (+1.9%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $54.84–$66.77
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $48.66–$72.33
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-10-30−76.1%−76.1%+15.3%
2008-11-03−73.3%−78.3%+4.7%
2008-11-04−73.0%−79.3%+0.0%
3 best
2015-03-17+131.1%+0.0%+131.1%
2015-03-16+129.7%+0.0%+129.7%
2015-03-13+126.5%−0.8%+126.5%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$7.8B
market cap
$2.61
EPS (TTM)
27.9
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-30
next earnings
Revenue$15.2B
'20'25
Net income$435M
'20'25
Free cash flow$853M
'20'25
Net margin · by yr2.9%
'20'25
ROE · by yr10.0%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr1.30
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 74 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $59.65$54.82$124.83
  • DCF (intrinsic)$111.76
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 30.7× · n=74$80.00
  • Analyst target · range $70.00–$120.00$97.50
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$59.65

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
+1.7%
n=18
Feb
58%
+4.4%
n=19
Mar
68%
+3.9%
n=19
Apr
47%
+10.0%
n=19
May
47%
+0.7%
n=19
Jun
47%
−1.1%
n=19
Jul
63%
+3.3%
n=19
Aug
63%
+6.2%
n=19
Sep
47%
−4.6%
n=19
Oct
44%
−2.0%
n=18
Nov
61%
+1.9%
n=18
Dec
67%
+5.8%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$149$592026-05-08: 1 insider sale, $391K — Rush David E2026-03-13: 1 insider purchase, $4.4M — LEVY PAUL S2025-08-22: 1 insider sale, $181K — Johnson Timothy D2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $181K2026-03: 1 open-market purchase, $4.4M2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $391K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Rush David E — Sale on 2026-05-08, filed 4 days after the tradedirector LEVY PAUL S — Purchase on 2026-03-13, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Johnson Timothy D — Sale on 2025-08-22, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-05-08Rush David EdirectorSale5,000 @ $78.17$391K−3.9% of holding+0.3%not yet — horizon still open122,284Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-13LEVY PAUL SdirectorPurchase50,000 @ $87.73$4.4M+3.0% of holding−5.5%−47.1%1,727,191Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-08-22Johnson Timothy DofficerSale1,250 @ $144.85$181K−1.7% of holding−19.1%−31.2%73,521Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-10Vance ToddofficerPurchase1,948 @ $115.50$225K+6.7% of holding+9.9%−24.4%31,121Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-27Charles Dirkson RdirectorPurchase5,000 @ $109.67$548Kownership Δ n/a+0.2%−23.6%5,000Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-09LEVY PAUL SdirectorPurchase283,517 @ $111.21$31.5M+20.4% of holding−0.9%−20.8%1,672,687Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-08LEVY PAUL SdirectorPurchase216,483 @ $110.65$24.0M+18.5% of holding−4.4%−21.1%1,389,170Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-27Rush David EdirectorSale18,000 @ $140.82$2.5M−12.7% of holding−5.8%−10.9%123,331Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

177 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-10OLEARY JAMESdirectorAward / grant56491,795Form 4
2026-09-10Boydston Cory JacobsdirectorAward / grant47027,191Form 4
2026-09-10CHRISTOPHE CLEVELAND AdirectorAward / grant56438,762Form 4
2026-09-10Charles Dirkson RdirectorAward / grant47014,766Form 4
2026-09-10Steinke Craig ArthurdirectorAward / grant564102,626Form 4
2026-09-10Hayes William BdirectorAward / grant58320,221Form 4
2026-09-10LEVY PAUL SdirectorAward / grant1,2041,732,002Form 4
2026-09-10Renz MariadirectorAward / grant4896,870Form 4
2026-07-18Vaughn PaulofficerAward / grant3,36640,724Form 4
2026-07-18Vance ToddofficerAward / grant3,36642,684Form 4
2026-07-18O'Brien Matthew ColeyofficerAward / grant7,4067,406Form 4
2026-06-13Narayan GayatriofficerWithheld for tax2,84228,252Form 4
2026-06-05Herron Stephen JofficerGift850110,260Form 4
2026-06-04Hiller MichaelofficerGift90052,142Form 4
2026-06-01LEVY PAUL SdirectorAward / grant1,0491,730,798Form 4
2026-06-01Hayes William BdirectorAward / grant50819,638Form 4
2026-06-01CHRISTOPHE CLEVELAND AdirectorAward / grant49138,198Form 4
2026-06-01Steinke Craig ArthurdirectorAward / grant491102,062Form 4
2026-06-01OLEARY JAMESdirectorAward / grant49191,231Form 4
2026-06-01Renz MariadirectorAward / grant4266,381Form 4
2026-06-01Charles Dirkson RdirectorAward / grant40914,296Form 4
2026-06-01Boydston Cory JacobsdirectorAward / grant40926,721Form 4
2026-06-01ALEXANDER MARK AdirectorAward / grant40947,913Form 4
2026-05-14LEVY PAUL SdirectorAward / grant2,5581,729,749Form 4
2026-05-14AINOA CHERYLdirectorAward / grant2,5584,629Form 4
2026-05-14OLEARY JAMESdirectorAward / grant2,55890,740Form 4
2026-05-14Steinke Craig ArthurdirectorAward / grant2,558101,571Form 4
2026-05-14Charles Dirkson RdirectorAward / grant2,55813,887Form 4
2026-05-14MILGRIM BRETT NdirectorAward / grant2,55882,634Form 4
2026-05-14ALEXANDER MARK AdirectorAward / grant2,55847,504Form 4
2026-05-14CHRISTOPHE CLEVELAND AdirectorAward / grant2,55837,707Form 4
2026-05-14Renz MariadirectorAward / grant2,5585,955Form 4
2026-05-14Hayes William BdirectorAward / grant2,55819,130Form 4
2026-05-14Rush David EdirectorAward / grant2,558124,842Form 4
2026-03-15Jackson Peter M.directorWithheld for tax8,508272,332Form 4
2026-03-15Herron Stephen JofficerWithheld for tax5,818111,110Form 4
2026-03-15Robins Scott LofficerWithheld for tax5,057151,247Form 4
2026-03-15Hiller MichaelofficerWithheld for tax3,29453,042Form 4
2026-03-15Vaughn PaulofficerWithheld for tax2,62237,358Form 4
2026-03-15Rush David EdirectorWithheld for tax2,332127,284Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-07-062026-06-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-24$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-30$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-03-092026-02-24$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-22$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-22$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-09-092025-08-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-09-092025-08-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-09-092025-08-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-06-102025-05-19$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-06-102025-05-28$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-05-122025-04-23$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.