BLBD · TickerCove

BLBDBlue Bird CorporationConsumer Cyclical · Auto - Manufacturersas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $61.66 · now $61.66 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BLBD has typically landed between $49.21 and $84.06 — a range of −20.2% to +36.3% from the issuance price $61.66.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

3,121 overlapping 1 month windows · 2014-03-20 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($61.66) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$61.66 · 43% of range

$46.59 low$81.5 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−0.2%

typical move · IQR 20.4%

−20.2%worst (p90)+36.3%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where BLBD has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $61.66 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $61.66 (+0.0%)
typical $61.55 (-0.2%)
middle 50% $55.26–$67.84
90% range $49.21–$84.06

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,121 windows spanning 2014-03-20 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-18	−51.6%	−51.6%	+1.2%
2020-03-05	−47.2%	−47.2%	+1.1%
2020-03-04	−46.3%	−47.4%	+0.0%
3 best
2024-05-01	+73.7%	+0.0%	+73.7%
2024-04-30	+72.1%	−0.4%	+72.1%
2022-12-14	+64.9%	+0.0%	+68.0%

3,121 overlapping windows · 2014-03-20 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~13 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

58%

+5.0%

n=12

Feb

67%

+9.5%

n=12

Mar

58%

−2.1%

n=12

Apr

62%

+2.3%

n=13

May

69%

+8.8%

n=13

Jun

54%

+0.9%

n=13

Jul

62%

+1.8%

n=13

Aug

46%

−1.5%

n=13

Sep

54%

−1.6%

n=13

Oct

50%

−4.4%

n=12

Nov

75%

+7.7%

n=12

Dec

42%

+0.3%

n=12

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-12	Thau Daniel Mark	director	Purchase	350 @ $64.37	$23K	+4.0% of holding	−2.8%	not yet — horizon still open	9,046	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-19	Thau Daniel Mark	director	Purchase	300 @ $65.09	$20K	+3.6% of holding	+12.4%	not yet — horizon still open	8,696	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-04	Sanfrey Jeffrey Scott	officer	Sale	5,192 @ $58.54	$304K	−11.7% of holding	+4.7%	−6.3%	39,011	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-19	Radulescu Razvan	officer	Sale	3,925 @ $60.98	$239K	−8.5% of holding	−6.7%	−10.7%	42,255	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-17	Radulescu Razvan	officer	Sale	7,006 @ $51.58	$361K	−13.2% of holding	−6.4%	+34.9%	46,180	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-12	Horlock Phil	director	Sale	8,341 @ $50.35	$420K	−3.6% of holding	−4.5%	+34.7%	225,385	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-12	Horlock Phil	director	Sale	7,040 @ $50.50	$356K	−2.9% of holding	−4.5%	+34.7%	233,726	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-10	Radulescu Razvan	officer	Sale	7,984 @ $50.39	$402K	−14.0% of holding	−5.2%	+32.0%	49,087	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-04	Thau Daniel Mark	director	Purchase	400 @ $51.05	$20K	+7.0% of holding	−8.3%	+29.3%	6,099	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-12	Horlock Phil	director	Sale	13,578 @ $58.00	$788K	−5.3% of holding	−5.9%	−9.4%	240,766	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-09-02	Radulescu Razvan	officer	Sale	6,709 @ $57.41	$385K	−14.1% of holding	−7.1%	−5.3%	40,794	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-28	Horlock Phil	director	Sale	13,000 @ $59.02	$767K	−5.1% of holding	−5.6%	−9.3%	240,766	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-08-18	Horlock Phil	director	Sale	21,129 @ $58.16	$1.2M	−8.1% of holding	−2.9%	−2.6%	240,766	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-15	Horlock Phil	director	Sale	21,129 @ $57.18	$1.2M	−8.1% of holding	−1.7%	−2.2%	240,766	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-13	Horlock Phil	director	Sale	15,848 @ $56.06	$888K	−6.2% of holding	+0.7%	−7.2%	240,766	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-12	Scartz Ted	officer	Sale	8,877 @ $55.22	$490K	−15.4% of holding	+0.8%	−6.0%	48,769	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-08	Horlock Phil	director	Sale	30,000 @ $60.00	$1.8M	−11.1% of holding	+3.3%	−5.9%	240,766	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-08-08	Radulescu Razvan	officer	Sale	700 @ $60.02	$42K	−1.5% of holding	+3.3%	−5.9%	47,503	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-08-07	Radulescu Razvan	officer	Sale	10,000 @ $53.21	$532K	−17.2% of holding	+8.7%	+3.3%	48,203	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-08	Radulescu Razvan	officer	Sale	10,000 @ $45.19	$452K	−14.7% of holding	−4.3%	−7.3%	58,203	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-12	Horlock Phil	director	Sale	14,875 @ $41.38	$616K	−5.2% of holding	+0.5%	+9.9%	270,766	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-11	Horlock Phil	director	Sale	8,859 @ $41.77	$370K	−3.2% of holding	+1.0%	+8.7%	270,766	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-11	Horlock Phil	director	Sale	4,430 @ $41.55	$184K	−1.6% of holding	+1.0%	+8.7%	279,625	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-10	Horlock Phil	director	Sale	8,860 @ $41.04	$364K	−3.2% of holding	+4.4%	+8.0%	270,766	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-28	Thau Daniel Mark	director	Purchase	400 @ $39.17	$16K	+7.5% of holding	+5.4%	+17.1%	5,699	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-18	Thau Daniel Mark	director	Purchase	500 @ $34.85	$17K	+71.4% of holding	+10.3%	+59.4%	1,200	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-10	Radulescu Razvan	officer	Sale	2,848 @ $38.12	$109K	−3.1% of holding	−3.5%	+40.6%	88,664	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-17	Radulescu Razvan	officer	Sale	19,171 @ $42.89	$822K	−17.7% of holding	−5.3%	−3.6%	89,347	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-09	Thau Daniel Mark	director	Purchase	700 @ $39.18	$27K	ownership Δ n/a	+10.8%	+5.4%	700	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

88 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-04-01	Grimm Douglas J.	director	Award / grant	2,297	28,764	Form 4
2026-04-01	Thau Daniel Mark	director	Award / grant	2,297	8,396	Form 4
2026-04-01	Hightower Edward T.	director	Award / grant	2,297	6,396	Form 4
2026-04-01	Newman Simon J	director	Award / grant	2,297	10,334	Form 4
2026-04-01	Penn Kevin S.	director	Award / grant	2,297	6,396	Form 4
2026-04-01	Girardin Steve	director	Award / grant	2,297	2,297	Form 4
2026-04-01	Blaufuss Mark	director	Award / grant	2,297	10,334	Form 4
2026-04-01	Fream Julie A	director	Award / grant	2,297	9,705	Form 4
2026-04-01	Girardin Steve	director	Award / grant	1	1	Form 4
2026-04-01	Girardin Steve	director	Award / grant	1	1	Form 4
2026-04-01	Girardin Steve	director	Award / grant	2,702,180	2,702,180	Form 4
2026-04-01	Girardin Steve	director	Award / grant	2,702,180	2,702,180	Form 4
2026-03-04	Sanfrey Jeffrey Scott	officer	Option exercise	5,192	44,203	Form 4
2026-03-04	Sanfrey Jeffrey Scott	officer	Option exercise	5,192	0	Form 4
2025-12-17	Radulescu Razvan	officer	Option exercise	3,503	49,683	Form 4
2025-12-17	Radulescu Razvan	officer	Option exercise	3,503	53,186	Form 4
2025-12-17	Radulescu Razvan	officer	Option exercise	3,503	0	Form 4
2025-12-12	Radulescu Razvan	officer	Withheld for tax	2,907	46,180	Form 4
2025-12-12	Scartz Ted	officer	Withheld for tax	626	59,910	Form 4
2025-12-12	Sanfrey Jeffrey Scott	officer	Withheld for tax	549	39,011	Form 4
2025-12-06	Radulescu Razvan	officer	Withheld for tax	3,287	57,071	Form 4
2025-12-06	Scartz Ted	officer	Withheld for tax	881	60,536	Form 4
2025-12-06	Sanfrey Jeffrey Scott	officer	Withheld for tax	753	39,560	Form 4
2025-12-02	Wyskiel John	director	Withheld for tax	14,447	88,088	Form 4
2025-12-02	Radulescu Razvan	officer	Withheld for tax	2,626	38,168	Form 4
2025-12-02	Scartz Ted	officer	Withheld for tax	820	47,949	Form 4
2025-12-02	Sanfrey Jeffrey Scott	officer	Withheld for tax	780	30,056	Form 4
2025-12-02	Radulescu Razvan	officer	Award / grant	13,314	60,358	Form 4
2025-12-02	Wyskiel John	director	Award / grant	19,332	107,420	Form 4
2025-12-02	Sanfrey Jeffrey Scott	officer	Award / grant	4,103	34,159	Form 4
2025-12-02	Sanfrey Jeffrey Scott	officer	Award / grant	6,154	40,313	Form 4
2025-12-02	Wyskiel John	director	Award / grant	28,999	136,419	Form 4
2025-12-02	Scartz Ted	officer	Award / grant	5,387	53,336	Form 4
2025-12-02	Scartz Ted	officer	Award / grant	8,081	61,417	Form 4
2025-12-02	Radulescu Razvan	officer	Award / grant	8,876	47,044	Form 4
2025-09-12	Horlock Phil	director	Option exercise	13,578	254,344	Form 4
2025-09-12	Horlock Phil	director	Option exercise	13,578	0	Form 4
2025-08-28	Horlock Phil	director	Option exercise	13,000	253,766	Form 4
2025-08-28	Horlock Phil	director	Option exercise	13,000	13,578	Form 4
2025-08-18	Horlock Phil	director	Option exercise	21,129	261,895	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

27d remaining

2026-09-174% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i