Issued 2026-09-16 at $71.60 · now $71.60 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BKTI has typically landed between $58.64 and $94.13 — a range of −18.1% to +31.5% from the issuance price $71.60.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,002 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($71.60) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where BKTI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $71.6 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $71.6 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $72.06 (+0.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $65.45–$78.67
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $58.64–$94.13
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-30 | −64.2% | −66.3% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-26 | −59.2% | −59.2% | +20.9% |
| 2020-02-21 | −56.8% | −56.8% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-04-24 | +121.1% | +0.0% | +121.1% |
| 2020-03-25 | +118.4% | +0.0% | +123.1% |
| 2020-03-24 | +116.9% | +0.0% | +134.6% |
5,002 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-12 | Suzuki John M | director | Sale | 223 @ $85.02 | $19K | −0.6% of holding | −2.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 39,896 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-11 | Suzuki John M | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $81.61 | $163K | −4.7% of holding | −6.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 40,896 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Suzuki John M | director | Sale | 777 @ $85.00 | $66K | −1.9% of holding | −6.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 40,119 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-08 | Avanic Branko | officer | Sale | 1,921 @ $68.38 | $131K | −14.8% of holding | +11.5% | +18.5% | 11,048 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-08 | Avanic Branko | officer | Sale | 79 @ $69.14 | $5K | −0.7% of holding | +11.5% | +18.5% | 10,969 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-05 | Avanic Branko | officer | Sale | 2,031 @ $68.89 | $140K | −13.5% of holding | +15.8% | +24.9% | 12,969 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-28 | OHara Ellen O | director | Sale | 100 @ $71.72 | $7K | −4.7% of holding | +15.3% | +17.7% | 2,040 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-22 | Suzuki John M | director | Sale | 3,000 @ $70.00 | $210K | −6.5% of holding | +4.0% | +8.9% | 42,896 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-19 | OHara Ellen O | director | Sale | 300 @ $64.11 | $19K | −12.3% of holding | +9.2% | +15.1% | 2,140 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-13 | Lanktree Charles T | director | Sale | 549 @ $36.31 | $20K | −100.0% of holding | −7.4% | +44.5% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-04 | Lanktree Charles T | director | Sale | 992 @ $35.00 | $35K | −64.4% of holding | +0.7% | +30.1% | 549 | Form 4 · filed 12 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
37 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-02 | Avanic Branko | officer | Award / grant | 497 | 11,466 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-26 | OHara Ellen O | director | Award / grant | 461 | 2,501 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-26 | Sams Lloyd Roberts | director | Award / grant | 461 | 21,603 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-26 | Jackson Robert Joseph | director | Award / grant | 461 | 20,554 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-26 | Horowitz Joshua | director | Award / grant | 461 | 28,461 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-26 | Lanktree Charles T | director | Award / grant | 461 | 30,920 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-26 | Payne E. Gray | director | Award / grant | 461 | 32,252 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-13 | Malmanger Scott A. | officer | Option exercise | 1,000 | 14,302 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-13 | Malmanger Scott A. | officer | Option exercise | 1,000 | 24,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-10 | Malmanger Scott A. | officer | Award / grant | 50,175 | 50,175 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-10 | Suzuki John M | director | Award / grant | 112,391 | 112,391 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-09 | Malmanger Scott A. | officer | Option exercise | 5,000 | 13,302 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-09 | Malmanger Scott A. | officer | Option exercise | 5,000 | 25,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-16 | Payne E. Gray | director | Award / grant | 2,238 | 2,238 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-16 | Jackson Robert Joseph | director | Award / grant | 2,238 | 2,238 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-16 | Lanktree Charles T | director | Award / grant | 2,238 | 2,238 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-16 | Sams Lloyd Roberts | director | Award / grant | 2,238 | 2,238 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-16 | Horowitz Joshua | director | Award / grant | 2,238 | 2,238 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-16 | OHara Ellen O | director | Award / grant | 2,238 | 2,238 | Form 4 |
| 2024-11-20 | Malmanger Scott A. | officer | Option exercise | 1,000 | 8,302 | Form 4 |
| 2024-11-20 | Malmanger Scott A. | officer | Option exercise | 1,000 | 4,000 | Form 4 |
| 2024-06-20 | OHara Ellen O | director | Award / grant | 2,440 | 2,440 | Form 4 |
| 2023-12-14 | Payne E. Gray | director | Award / grant | 1,415 | 31,791 | Form 4 |
| 2023-12-14 | Jackson Robert Joseph | director | Award / grant | 1,273 | 20,093 | Form 4 |
| 2023-12-14 | Sams Lloyd Roberts | director | Award / grant | 1,071 | 21,142 | Form 4 |
| 2023-12-14 | Lanktree Charles T | director | Award / grant | 1,132 | 30,459 | Form 4 |
| 2023-08-21 | Payne E. Gray | director | Award / grant | 4,487 | 27,142 | Form 4 |
| 2023-08-21 | Jackson Robert Joseph | director | Award / grant | 3,941 | 15,586 | Form 4 |
| 2023-08-21 | Jackson Robert Joseph | director | Award / grant | 3,234 | 18,820 | Form 4 |
| 2023-08-21 | Lanktree Charles T | director | Award / grant | 3,395 | 26,093 | Form 4 |
| 2023-08-21 | Lanktree Charles T | director | Award / grant | 3,234 | 29,327 | Form 4 |
| 2023-08-21 | Sams Lloyd Roberts | director | Award / grant | 3,213 | 16,837 | Form 4 |
| 2023-08-21 | Sams Lloyd Roberts | director | Award / grant | 3,234 | 20,071 | Form 4 |
| 2023-08-21 | Payne E. Gray | director | Award / grant | 3,234 | 30,376 | Form 4 |
| 2023-07-11 | Suzuki John M | director | Award / grant | 10,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2023-07-11 | Malmanger Scott A. | officer | Award / grant | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2023-06-23 | Avanic Branko | officer | Award / grant | 15,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.