BKSYBlackSky Technology Inc.Industrials · Aerospace & Defenseas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $21.52 · now $21.52 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BKSY has typically landed between $13.63 and $32.54 — a range of −36.7% to +51.2% from the issuance price $21.52.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,670 overlapping 1 month windows · 2019-12-20 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($21.52) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where BKSY has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $21.52 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$13.63worst · -36.7%$32.54best · +51.2%
  • now $21.52 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $21.04 (-2.2%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $17.44–$24.63
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $13.63–$32.54
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,670 windows spanning 2019-12-20 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2024-08-26−58.7%−58.7%+0.0%
2021-12-16−58.5%−58.5%+0.0%
2021-12-09−57.0%−57.0%+0.0%
3 best
2025-06-16+146.4%−0.3%+146.4%
2025-06-13+138.5%+0.0%+138.5%
2025-06-12+126.1%−4.9%+126.1%

1,670 overlapping windows · 2019-12-20 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~7 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
71%
+4.4%
n=7
Feb
43%
−0.3%
n=7
Mar
14%
−10.9%
n=7
Apr
43%
+0.3%
n=7
May
57%
+25.4%
n=7
Jun
57%
+10.8%
n=7
Jul
43%
−3.6%
n=7
Aug
29%
−8.1%
n=7
Sep
43%
−10.6%
n=7
Oct
67%
+6.5%
n=6
Nov
67%
+12.2%
n=6
Dec
50%
−8.0%
n=6

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$52$132026-09-11: 3 insider sales, $1.8M — O'Toole Brian E, Dubois Henry Edward, Lin Christiana L2026-09-09: 1 insider sale, $437K — O'Toole Brian E2026-08-28: 1 insider sale, $95K — Dubois Henry Edward2026-06-10: 3 insider sales, $1.4M — O'Toole Brian E, Dubois Henry Edward, Lin Christiana L2025-12-12: 4 insider sales, $721K — O'Toole Brian E, Dubois Henry Edward, Lin Christiana L, Ward Tracy2025-09-10: 4 insider sales, $1.6M — O'Toole Brian E, Dubois Henry Edward, Lin Christiana L, Ward Tracy2025-09: 4 open-market sales, $1.6M2025-12: 4 open-market sales, $721K2026-06: 3 open-market sales, $1.4M2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $95K2026-09: 4 open-market sales, $2.2M↑ buys↓ salesdirector O'Toole Brian E — Sale on 2026-09-11, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Dubois Henry Edward — Sale on 2026-09-11, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Lin Christiana L — Sale on 2026-09-11, filed 3 days after the tradedirector O'Toole Brian E — Sale on 2026-09-09, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Dubois Henry Edward — Sale on 2026-08-28, filed 3 days after the tradedirector O'Toole Brian E — Sale on 2026-06-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Dubois Henry Edward — Sale on 2026-06-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Lin Christiana L — Sale on 2026-06-10, filed 2 days after the tradedirector O'Toole Brian E — Sale on 2025-12-12, filed same dayofficer Dubois Henry Edward — Sale on 2025-12-12, filed same dayofficer Lin Christiana L — Sale on 2025-12-12, filed same dayofficer Ward Tracy — Sale on 2025-12-12, filed same daydirector O'Toole Brian E — Sale on 2025-09-10, filed 5 days after the tradeofficer Dubois Henry Edward — Sale on 2025-09-10, filed 5 days after the tradeofficer Lin Christiana L — Sale on 2025-09-10, filed 5 days after the tradeofficer Ward Tracy — Sale on 2025-09-10, filed 5 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-11O'Toole Brian EdirectorSale56,280 @ $20.95$1.2M−5.0% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open1,063,396Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-09-11Dubois Henry EdwardofficerSale15,225 @ $20.95$319K−3.1% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open482,931Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-09-11Lin Christiana LofficerSale13,052 @ $20.95$273K−3.0% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open427,680Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-09-09O'Toole Brian EdirectorSale20,000 @ $21.83$437K−1.8% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open1,119,676Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-28Dubois Henry EdwardofficerSale4,000 @ $23.78$95K−0.8% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open498,156Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-06-10O'Toole Brian EdirectorSale15,512 @ $34.10$529K−1.3% of holding−21.5%not yet — horizon still open1,139,676Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-10Dubois Henry EdwardofficerSale14,749 @ $34.10$503K−2.9% of holding−21.5%not yet — horizon still open502,156Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-10Lin Christiana LofficerSale12,001 @ $34.10$409K−2.7% of holding−21.5%not yet — horizon still open440,732Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-12O'Toole Brian EdirectorSale13,416 @ $19.27$259K−1.3% of holding+50.0%+47.0%988,521Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-12Dubois Henry EdwardofficerSale12,912 @ $19.27$249K−2.7% of holding+50.0%+47.0%463,373Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-12Lin Christiana LofficerSale10,388 @ $19.27$200K−2.6% of holding+50.0%+47.0%393,558Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-12Ward TracyofficerSale700 @ $19.27$13K−1.6% of holding+50.0%+47.0%43,726Form 4 · filed same day
2025-09-10O'Toole Brian EdirectorSale33,292 @ $17.45$581K−4.2% of holding+90.4%+52.0%750,164Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-09-10Dubois Henry EdwardofficerSale31,646 @ $17.45$552K−6.3% of holding+90.4%+52.0%474,582Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-09-10Lin Christiana LofficerSale24,036 @ $17.45$419K−5.6% of holding+90.4%+52.0%402,652Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-09-10Ward TracyofficerSale720 @ $17.45$13K−1.6% of holding+90.4%+52.0%44,387Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2024-12-12Harvey Timothy M.directorSale671 @ $10.65$7K−1.4% of holding−4.2%+9.0%48,819Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-12-12DiDomenico DaviddirectorSale671 @ $10.65$7K−0.5% of holding−4.2%+9.0%143,303Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-12-12Porteous William D.directorSale570 @ $10.65$6K−1.0% of holding−4.2%+9.0%58,362Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-12-12TOLONEN JAMES RdirectorSale564 @ $10.65$6K−1.0% of holding−4.2%+9.0%58,368Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-12-12Abraham Magid MdirectorSale481 @ $10.65$5K−1.0% of holding−4.2%+9.0%49,009Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-12-12Gordon Susan M.directorSale381 @ $10.65$4K−0.6% of holding−4.2%+9.0%58,551Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-12-10Dubois Henry EdwardofficerSale7,938 @ $10.65$85K−1.9% of holding−7.4%+2.3%420,779Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-12-10O'Toole Brian EdirectorSale7,020 @ $10.65$75K−1.0% of holding−7.4%+2.3%691,909Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-10Lin Christiana LofficerSale5,550 @ $10.65$59K−1.5% of holding−7.4%+2.3%354,143Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-10Ward TracyofficerSale1,907 @ $10.65$20K−5.6% of holding−7.4%+2.3%31,886Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

67 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-11Gordon Susan M.directorAward / grant7,27884,557Form 4
2026-09-11Harvey Timothy M.directorAward / grant7,27864,722Form 4
2026-09-11DiDomenico DaviddirectorAward / grant7,278180,568Form 4
2026-09-11TOLONEN JAMES RdirectorAward / grant8,00585,851Form 4
2026-09-11Porteous William D.directorAward / grant8,73387,323Form 4
2026-09-11Abraham Magid MdirectorAward / grant7,27872,930Form 4
2026-06-30Porteous William D.directorAward / grant80578,590Form 4
2026-06-30TOLONEN JAMES RdirectorAward / grant80577,846Form 4
2026-06-30Abraham Magid MdirectorAward / grant80565,652Form 4
2026-06-30Gordon Susan M.directorAward / grant80577,279Form 4
2026-03-31Gordon Susan M.directorAward / grant89476,474Form 4
2026-03-31TOLONEN JAMES RdirectorAward / grant89477,041Form 4
2026-03-31Abraham Magid MdirectorAward / grant89464,847Form 4
2026-03-31Porteous William D.directorAward / grant89477,785Form 4
2026-03-11O'Toole Brian EdirectorWithheld for tax24,999963,522Form 4
2026-03-11Dubois Henry EdwardofficerWithheld for tax23,551439,822Form 4
2026-03-11Lin Christiana LofficerWithheld for tax13,741379,817Form 4
2026-03-11Ward TracyofficerWithheld for tax80342,923Form 4
2026-03-10Dubois Henry EdwardofficerAward / grant77,083516,905Form 4
2026-03-10Lin Christiana LofficerAward / grant72,916452,733Form 4
2026-03-10O'Toole Brian EdirectorAward / grant191,6661,155,188Form 4
2025-12-31Porteous William D.directorAward / grant1,20076,891Form 4
2025-12-31Abraham Magid MdirectorAward / grant1,20063,953Form 4
2025-12-31TOLONEN JAMES RdirectorAward / grant1,20076,147Form 4
2025-12-31Gordon Susan M.directorAward / grant1,20075,580Form 4
2025-12-10Porteous William D.directorAward / grant1,50075,691Form 4
2025-12-10TOLONEN JAMES RdirectorAward / grant75074,947Form 4
2025-09-30Abraham Magid MdirectorAward / grant1,11662,753Form 4
2025-09-30Gordon Susan M.directorAward / grant1,11674,380Form 4
2025-09-30Porteous William D.directorAward / grant1,11674,191Form 4
2025-09-30TOLONEN JAMES RdirectorAward / grant1,11674,197Form 4
2025-09-15O'Toole Brian EdirectorAward / grant250,0001,000,164Form 4
2025-09-11Gordon Susan M.directorAward / grant8,62573,264Form 4
2025-09-11TOLONEN JAMES RdirectorAward / grant8,62573,081Form 4
2025-09-11DiDomenico DaviddirectorAward / grant8,625173,290Form 4
2025-09-11Harvey Timothy M.directorAward / grant8,62557,444Form 4
2025-09-11Porteous William D.directorAward / grant8,62573,075Form 4
2025-09-11Abraham Magid MdirectorAward / grant8,62561,637Form 4
2025-06-30Gordon Susan M.directorAward / grant1,09364,639Form 4
2025-06-30Porteous William D.directorAward / grant1,09364,450Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.