Issued 2026-09-16 at $171.40 · now $171.40 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BKNG has typically landed between $147.72 and $196.20 — a range of −13.8% to +14.5% from the issuance price $171.40.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($171.40) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where BKNG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $171.4 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $171.4 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $175.09 (+2.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $164.82–$185.36
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $147.72–$196.2
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −40.3% | −40.3% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-20 | −40.3% | −40.3% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-19 | −39.5% | −39.5% | +0.1% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2010-07-06 | +55.0% | +0.0% | +55.0% |
| 2010-07-07 | +53.5% | +0.0% | +53.5% |
| 2010-07-08 | +48.2% | +0.0% | +48.2% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 50 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$255.71
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 23.8× · n=50$180.65
- Analyst target · range $175.00–$309.84$217.60
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$171.40
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Pisano Paulo | officer | Sale | 1,500 @ $173.02 | $260K | −2.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 71,900 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | MYLOD ROBERT J JR | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $200.00 | $200K | −6.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 14,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Pisano Paulo | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $203.48 | $610K | −3.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 73,400 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | MILLONES PETER J | officer | Sale | 12,333 @ $205.76 | $2.5M | −3.0% of holding | −13.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 403,417 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | MILLONES PETER J | officer | Sale | 9,325 @ $204.91 | $1.9M | −2.2% of holding | −13.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 415,750 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | MILLONES PETER J | officer | Sale | 8,660 @ $208.05 | $1.8M | −2.2% of holding | −13.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 392,130 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | MILLONES PETER J | officer | Sale | 5,174 @ $210.00 | $1.1M | −1.3% of holding | −13.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 381,937 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | MILLONES PETER J | officer | Sale | 5,019 @ $208.73 | $1.0M | −1.3% of holding | −13.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 387,111 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | MILLONES PETER J | officer | Sale | 3,632 @ $211.03 | $766K | −1.0% of holding | −13.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 378,305 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | MILLONES PETER J | officer | Sale | 2,890 @ $212.32 | $614K | −0.8% of holding | −13.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 375,415 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | MILLONES PETER J | officer | Sale | 2,627 @ $206.58 | $543K | −0.7% of holding | −13.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 400,790 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | MILLONES PETER J | officer | Sale | 390 @ $212.88 | $83K | −0.1% of holding | −13.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 375,025 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | WITTMAN VANESSA AMES | director | Sale | 375 @ $211.00 | $79K | −2.3% of holding | −13.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,133 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Steenbergen Ewout L | officer | Sale | 8,461 @ $211.82 | $1.8M | −12.1% of holding | −17.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 61,684 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Steenbergen Ewout L | officer | Sale | 4,890 @ $209.67 | $1.0M | −6.2% of holding | −17.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 74,044 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Steenbergen Ewout L | officer | Sale | 3,899 @ $210.80 | $822K | −5.3% of holding | −17.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 70,145 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Steenbergen Ewout L | officer | Sale | 1,890 @ $212.54 | $402K | −3.1% of holding | −17.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 59,794 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Steenbergen Ewout L | officer | Sale | 860 @ $208.65 | $179K | −1.1% of holding | −17.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 78,934 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | MYLOD ROBERT J JR | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $206.70 | $207K | −6.3% of holding | −6.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-29 | MYLOD ROBERT J JR | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $200.00 | $1.0M | −23.8% of holding | −5.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-28 | WITTMAN VANESSA AMES | director | Sale | 1,125 @ $192.00 | $216K | −6.4% of holding | +1.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,508 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | MILLONES PETER J | officer | Sale | 29,399 @ $163.58 | $4.8M | −6.3% of holding | +10.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 437,795 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | MILLONES PETER J | officer | Sale | 20,381 @ $162.96 | $3.3M | −4.2% of holding | +10.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 467,194 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | MILLONES PETER J | officer | Sale | 7,470 @ $164.64 | $1.2M | −1.7% of holding | +10.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 430,325 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | MILLONES PETER J | officer | Sale | 5,250 @ $165.56 | $869K | −1.2% of holding | +10.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 425,075 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-17 | WITTMAN VANESSA AMES | director | Sale | 1,125 @ $192.00 | $216K | −6.6% of holding | −23.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,050 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-15 | Fogel Glenn D | director | Sale | 7,496 @ $186.01 | $1.4M | −2.5% of holding | −23.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 298,174 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-15 | Fogel Glenn D | director | Sale | 4,758 @ $185.36 | $882K | −1.5% of holding | −23.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 305,670 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-15 | Fogel Glenn D | director | Sale | 4,132 @ $184.35 | $762K | −1.3% of holding | −23.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 310,428 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-15 | Fogel Glenn D | director | Sale | 340 @ $183.00 | $62K | −0.1% of holding | −23.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 314,560 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Fogel Glenn D | director | Sale | 78 @ $4291.28 | $335K | −0.6% of holding | +3.2% | −13.8% | 12,920 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Fogel Glenn D | director | Sale | 66 @ $4294.18 | $283K | −0.5% of holding | +3.2% | −13.8% | 12,812 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Fogel Glenn D | director | Sale | 42 @ $4292.72 | $180K | −0.3% of holding | +3.2% | −13.8% | 12,878 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Fogel Glenn D | director | Sale | 42 @ $4288.04 | $180K | −0.3% of holding | +3.2% | −13.8% | 13,019 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Fogel Glenn D | director | Sale | 40 @ $4282.38 | $171K | −0.3% of holding | +3.2% | −13.8% | 13,129 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Fogel Glenn D | director | Sale | 38 @ $4284.83 | $163K | −0.3% of holding | +3.2% | −13.8% | 13,091 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Fogel Glenn D | director | Sale | 30 @ $4285.77 | $129K | −0.2% of holding | +3.2% | −13.8% | 13,061 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Fogel Glenn D | director | Sale | 28 @ $4297.00 | $120K | −0.2% of holding | +3.2% | −13.8% | 12,764 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Fogel Glenn D | director | Sale | 28 @ $4269.89 | $120K | −0.2% of holding | +3.2% | −13.8% | 13,213 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Fogel Glenn D | director | Sale | 24 @ $4300.19 | $103K | −0.2% of holding | +3.2% | −13.8% | 12,692 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Fogel Glenn D | director | Sale | 24 @ $4299.59 | $103K | −0.2% of holding | +3.2% | −13.8% | 12,716 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Fogel Glenn D | director | Sale | 24 @ $4298.05 | $103K | −0.2% of holding | +3.2% | −13.8% | 12,740 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Fogel Glenn D | director | Sale | 24 @ $4280.31 | $103K | −0.2% of holding | +3.2% | −13.8% | 13,169 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Fogel Glenn D | director | Sale | 21 @ $4289.20 | $90K | −0.2% of holding | +3.2% | −13.8% | 12,998 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Fogel Glenn D | director | Sale | 20 @ $4330.20 | $87K | −0.2% of holding | +3.2% | −13.8% | 12,596 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Fogel Glenn D | director | Sale | 20 @ $4306.78 | $86K | −0.2% of holding | +3.2% | −13.8% | 12,668 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Fogel Glenn D | director | Sale | 20 @ $4295.42 | $86K | −0.2% of holding | +3.2% | −13.8% | 12,792 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Fogel Glenn D | director | Sale | 20 @ $4274.43 | $85K | −0.2% of holding | +3.2% | −13.8% | 13,193 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Fogel Glenn D | director | Sale | 14 @ $4313.39 | $60K | −0.1% of holding | +3.2% | −13.8% | 12,630 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Fogel Glenn D | director | Sale | 14 @ $4312.39 | $60K | −0.1% of holding | +3.2% | −13.8% | 12,644 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Fogel Glenn D | director | Sale | 14 @ $4262.06 | $60K | −0.1% of holding | +3.2% | −13.8% | 13,251 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Fogel Glenn D | director | Sale | 10 @ $4314.73 | $43K | −0.1% of holding | +3.2% | −13.8% | 12,620 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Fogel Glenn D | director | Sale | 10 @ $4308.38 | $43K | −0.1% of holding | +3.2% | −13.8% | 12,658 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Fogel Glenn D | director | Sale | 10 @ $4267.29 | $43K | −0.1% of holding | +3.2% | −13.8% | 13,241 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Fogel Glenn D | director | Sale | 4 @ $4322.08 | $17K | −0.0% of holding | +3.2% | −13.8% | 12,616 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Fogel Glenn D | director | Sale | 4 @ $4303.35 | $17K | −0.0% of holding | +3.2% | −13.8% | 12,688 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Fogel Glenn D | director | Sale | 50 @ $4152.08 | $208K | −0.3% of holding | +9.2% | +13.4% | 18,713 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Fogel Glenn D | director | Sale | 50 @ $4150.65 | $208K | −0.3% of holding | +9.2% | +13.4% | 18,763 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Fogel Glenn D | director | Sale | 50 @ $4112.24 | $206K | −0.3% of holding | +9.2% | +13.4% | 19,185 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Fogel Glenn D | director | Sale | 45 @ $4135.91 | $186K | −0.2% of holding | +9.2% | +13.4% | 18,950 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
33 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | Read Nicholas | director | Withheld for tax | 148 | 9,852 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-30 | Radakovich Lynn Vojvodich | director | Gift | 1,200 | 4,325 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-30 | Quinlan Larry | director | Award / grant | 1,583 | 1,583 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-30 | Singh Sumit | director | Award / grant | 1,583 | 9,933 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-30 | Read Nicholas | director | Award / grant | 1,583 | 11,435 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-30 | Sievers Kurt | director | Award / grant | 1,846 | 1,846 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-30 | NOSKI CHARLES H | director | Award / grant | 1,583 | 37,883 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-30 | GRADDICK WEIR MIRIAN M | director | Award / grant | 1,583 | 23,983 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-30 | MYLOD ROBERT J JR | director | Award / grant | 2,240 | 69,565 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-30 | ROTHMAN THOMAS E | director | Award / grant | 1,583 | 51,533 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-30 | WITTMAN VANESSA AMES | director | Award / grant | 1,583 | 17,633 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-30 | Radakovich Lynn Vojvodich | director | Gift | 1,200 | 5,925 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-30 | Grier Kelly J | director | Award / grant | 1,583 | 6,058 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Steenbergen Ewout L | officer | Withheld for tax | 12,456 | 79,794 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Sullivan Caroline | officer | Award / grant | 12,674 | 12,674 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Fogel Glenn D | director | Withheld for tax | 7,153 | 11,880 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | MILLONES PETER J | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,950 | 19,114 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | D'Emic Susana | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,532 | 5,793 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Fogel Glenn D | director | Withheld for tax | 1,215 | 10,665 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Pisano Paulo | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,114 | 2,690 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | MILLONES PETER J | officer | Withheld for tax | 333 | 18,781 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Pisano Paulo | officer | Withheld for tax | 236 | 2,454 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Steenbergen Ewout L | officer | Withheld for tax | 121 | 2,766 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | D'Emic Susana | officer | Withheld for tax | 103 | 5,690 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Steenbergen Ewout L | officer | Award / grant | 924 | 3,690 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | D'Emic Susana | officer | Award / grant | 169 | 5,859 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | MILLONES PETER J | officer | Award / grant | 722 | 19,503 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Pisano Paulo | officer | Award / grant | 602 | 3,056 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Fogel Glenn D | director | Award / grant | 2,600 | 13,265 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Fogel Glenn D | director | Award / grant | 14,310 | 19,033 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | MILLONES PETER J | officer | Award / grant | 4,294 | 21,064 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Pisano Paulo | officer | Award / grant | 2,290 | 3,804 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | D'Emic Susana | officer | Award / grant | 1,526 | 7,325 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Josh Gottheimer | House | sale | 2026-07-07 | 2026-06-01 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-16 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-30 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-01 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $15–50K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-06-08 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-05-08 | 2026-04-14 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-23 | $15–50K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-30 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-24 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.