BKKT · TickerCove

BKKTBakkt Holdings, Inc.Technology · Software - Infrastructureas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $7.17 · now $7.17 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BKKT has typically landed between $3.84 and $13.26 — a range of −46.5% to +85.0% from the issuance price $7.17.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

1,436 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-11-19 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($7.17) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$7.17 · 1% of range

$6.85 low$45.04 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−9.8%

typical move · IQR 40.7%

−46.5%worst (p90)+85.0%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where BKKT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $7.17 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $7.17 (+0.0%)
typical $6.47 (-9.8%)
middle 50% $5.01–$7.92
90% range $3.84–$13.26

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,436 windows spanning 2020-11-19 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2025-07-23	−67.8%	−67.8%	+0.0%
2025-07-21	−64.3%	−64.3%	+3.6%
2021-12-08	−63.5%	−64.4%	+0.0%
3 best
2025-09-03	+411.3%	−2.3%	+411.3%
2025-09-04	+381.3%	+0.0%	+423.5%
2025-09-05	+381.2%	+0.0%	+415.5%

1,436 overlapping windows · 2020-11-19 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

50%

−0.6%

n=6

Feb

33%

−15.4%

n=6

Mar

33%

−9.8%

n=6

Apr

33%

−15.3%

n=6

May

67%

+30.9%

n=6

Jun

33%

−7.1%

n=6

Jul

33%

+3.3%

n=6

Aug

33%

−7.5%

n=6

Sep

33%

+36.5%

n=6

Oct

20%

+23.0%

n=5

Nov

40%

+28.4%

n=5

Dec

33%

−12.3%

n=6

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-18	ALFRED MICHAEL	director	Purchase	296,567 @ $7.12	$2.1M	+32.8% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	1,201,567	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-15	Alexander Karen	officer	Sale	657 @ $8.44	$6K	−1.2% of holding	−13.5%	not yet — horizon still open	53,542	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-15	D'Annunzio Marc	officer	Sale	539 @ $8.44	$5K	−0.5% of holding	−13.5%	not yet — horizon still open	108,278	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-15	Henderson Joseph Sean-Walsh	officer	Sale	94 @ $8.33	$783	−0.7% of holding	−13.5%	not yet — horizon still open	12,954	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-26	D'Annunzio Marc	officer	Sale	1,357 @ $7.71	$10K	−1.2% of holding	−13.1%	not yet — horizon still open	108,817	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-06-25	Alexander Karen	officer	Sale	1,907 @ $7.93	$15K	−3.4% of holding	−4.0%	not yet — horizon still open	54,199	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-25	D'Annunzio Marc	officer	Sale	1,562 @ $7.93	$12K	−1.4% of holding	−4.0%	not yet — horizon still open	110,174	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-25	Baes Nicholas	officer	Sale	1,562 @ $7.93	$12K	−1.5% of holding	−4.0%	not yet — horizon still open	105,375	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-25	Henderson Joseph Sean-Walsh	officer	Sale	349 @ $7.93	$3K	−2.6% of holding	−4.0%	not yet — horizon still open	13,048	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-10	ALFRED MICHAEL	director	Purchase	100,000 @ $7.83	$783K	+12.4% of holding	+1.8%	not yet — horizon still open	905,000	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-09	ALFRED MICHAEL	director	Purchase	180,000 @ $7.71	$1.4M	+28.8% of holding	+6.5%	not yet — horizon still open	805,000	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-18	ALFRED MICHAEL	director	Purchase	220,000 @ $8.20	$1.8M	+54.3% of holding	+3.0%	not yet — horizon still open	625,000	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-15	ALFRED MICHAEL	director	Purchase	365,000 @ $8.34	$3.0M	+912.5% of holding	+4.3%	not yet — horizon still open	405,000	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-04-28	Alexander Karen	officer	Sale	4,684 @ $9.13	$43K	−7.7% of holding	+22.2%	not yet — horizon still open	55,771	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-28	D'Annunzio Marc	officer	Sale	3,789 @ $9.13	$35K	−3.2% of holding	+22.2%	not yet — horizon still open	114,050	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-28	D'Annunzio Marc	officer	Sale	3,991 @ $8.60	$34K	−3.5% of holding	+22.2%	not yet — horizon still open	110,059	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-28	Baes Nicholas	officer	Sale	2,352 @ $9.13	$21K	−2.2% of holding	+22.2%	not yet — horizon still open	106,266	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-06	Baes Nicholas	officer	Sale	711 @ $7.56	$5K	−0.7% of holding	+9.3%	not yet — horizon still open	101,312	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-30	D'Annunzio Marc	officer	Sale	5,342 @ $7.08	$38K	−4.8% of holding	+0.5%	not yet — horizon still open	106,069	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-27	D'Annunzio Marc	officer	Sale	6,422 @ $8.55	$55K	−5.5% of holding	+5.0%	not yet — horizon still open	111,411	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-24	D'Annunzio Marc	officer	Sale	785 @ $10.09	$8K	−0.7% of holding	−12.8%	−26.6%	117,833	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-19	Henderson Joseph Sean-Walsh	officer	Sale	2,461 @ $10.01	$25K	−18.4% of holding	+45.7%	−29.8%	10,936	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-12	Henderson Joseph Sean-Walsh	officer	Sale	169 @ $21.50	$4K	−1.2% of holding	−46.3%	−70.5%	13,397	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-22	Naheta Akshay Sudhir	director	Purchase	30,000 @ $8.55	$256K	+18.6% of holding	+91.0%	+6.9%	191,426	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-08-21	Naheta Akshay Sudhir	director	Purchase	100,000 @ $8.18	$818K	+875.2% of holding	+79.7%	+19.7%	111,426	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-21	Naheta Akshay Sudhir	director	Purchase	50,000 @ $8.00	$400K	+44.9% of holding	+79.7%	+19.7%	161,426	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-07-15	Main Andrew A	director	Sale	14,440 @ $18.21	$263K	−3.2% of holding	−48.8%	−7.0%	431,963	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-15	Alexander Karen	officer	Sale	671 @ $18.21	$12K	−1.0% of holding	−48.8%	−7.0%	69,768	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-15	D'Annunzio Marc	officer	Sale	559 @ $18.21	$10K	−0.8% of holding	−48.8%	−7.0%	69,248	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-15	Henderson Joseph Sean-Walsh	officer	Sale	95 @ $18.75	$2K	−0.7% of holding	−48.8%	−7.0%	13,566	Form 4 · filed 121 days after the trade
2025-05-14	Dow De'Ana	director	Sale	19,200 @ $12.89	$248K	−45.8% of holding	−6.2%	+50.4%	22,728	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-14	D'Annunzio Marc	officer	Sale	10,000 @ $14.21	$142K	−12.5% of holding	−6.2%	+50.4%	69,807	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

83 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-05-15	Naheta Akshay Sudhir	director	Option exercise	33,557	9,093,522	Form 4
2026-05-15	D'Annunzio Marc	officer	Option exercise	1,677	111,736	Form 4
2026-05-15	Baes Nicholas	officer	Option exercise	671	106,937	Form 4
2026-05-15	Alexander Karen	officer	Option exercise	335	56,106	Form 4
2026-05-15	Naheta Akshay Sudhir	director	Option exercise	33,557	1,275,168	Form 4
2026-05-15	Baes Nicholas	officer	Option exercise	671	52,349	Form 4
2026-05-15	D'Annunzio Marc	officer	Option exercise	1,677	130,874	Form 4
2026-05-15	Alexander Karen	officer	Option exercise	335	26,176	Form 4
2026-04-30	Naheta Akshay Sudhir	director	Award / grant	7,927,831	9,026,408	Form 4
2025-12-03	Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.	tenPercentOwner	Conversion	465,890	0	Form 4
2025-12-03	Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.	tenPercentOwner	Conversion	465,890	7,919,002	Form 4
2025-12-03	Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.	tenPercentOwner	Conversion	465,890	7,919,002	Form 4
2025-12-03	Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.	tenPercentOwner	Conversion	465,890	0	Form 4
2025-12-03	Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.	tenPercentOwner	Conversion	465,890	0	Form 4
2025-12-03	Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.	tenPercentOwner	Conversion	465,890	7,919,002	Form 4
2025-11-19	ALFRED MICHAEL	director	Award / grant	9,000	28,476	Form 4
2025-11-14	D'Annunzio Marc	officer	Withheld for tax	495	118,618	Form 4
2025-11-14	Baes Nicholas	officer	Withheld for tax	198	105,945	Form 4
2025-11-14	Alexander Karen	officer	Withheld for tax	121	69,499	Form 4
2025-11-14	Naheta Akshay Sudhir	director	Option exercise	803,861	803,856	Form 4
2025-11-14	Naheta Akshay Sudhir	director	Option exercise	803,861	1,098,577	Form 4
2025-11-12	Naheta Akshay Sudhir	director	Option exercise	33,557	294,716	Form 4
2025-11-12	D'Annunzio Marc	officer	Option exercise	1,677	119,113	Form 4
2025-11-12	Baes Nicholas	officer	Option exercise	671	106,143	Form 4
2025-11-12	Alexander Karen	officer	Option exercise	335	69,620	Form 4
2025-11-12	Naheta Akshay Sudhir	director	Option exercise	33,557	1,308,725	Form 4
2025-11-12	Baes Nicholas	officer	Option exercise	671	53,020	Form 4
2025-11-12	Alexander Karen	officer	Option exercise	335	26,511	Form 4
2025-11-12	D'Annunzio Marc	officer	Option exercise	1,677	132,551	Form 4
2025-11-03	Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	465,890	465,890	Form 4
2025-11-03	Naheta Akshay Sudhir	director	Award / grant	69,733	261,159	Form 4
2025-11-03	Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.	tenPercentOwner	Option exercise	6,803,178	7,453,112	Form 4
2025-11-03	D'Annunzio Marc	officer	Option exercise	48,188	117,436	Form 4
2025-11-03	D'Annunzio Marc	officer	Option exercise	48,188	0	Form 4
2025-11-03	Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.	tenPercentOwner	Option exercise	6,803,178	7,453,112	Form 4
2025-11-03	Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.	tenPercentOwner	Option exercise	6,803,178	0	Form 4
2025-11-03	Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	649,934	649,934	Form 4
2025-11-03	Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	230,680	230,680	Form 4
2025-11-03	Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	230,680	230,680	Form 4
2025-11-03	D'Annunzio Marc	officer	Option exercise	48,188	117,436	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i