BKHBlack Hills CorporationUtilities · Regulated Gasas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $70.50 · now $70.50 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BKH has typically landed between $64.43 and $77.18 — a range of −8.6% to +9.5% from the issuance price $70.50.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($70.50) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where BKH has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $70.5 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$64.43worst · -8.6%$77.18best · +9.5%
  • now $70.5 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $71.1 (+0.8%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $68.4–$73.79
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $64.43–$77.18
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−40.5%−40.5%+0.0%
2009-02-02−39.7%−41.1%+0.0%
2009-01-30−39.7%−39.7%+2.5%
3 best
2020-03-18+32.8%+0.0%+38.8%
2009-03-11+27.0%+0.0%+27.0%
2016-01-21+25.4%+0.0%+25.4%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
60%
+0.4%
n=20
Feb
65%
−1.0%
n=20
Mar
80%
+3.1%
n=20
Apr
75%
+2.9%
n=20
May
55%
−0.5%
n=20
Jun
35%
−1.0%
n=20
Jul
65%
+1.5%
n=20
Aug
50%
+0.4%
n=20
Sep
45%
−1.7%
n=20
Oct
70%
+1.6%
n=20
Nov
45%
+1.9%
n=20
Dec
70%
+2.2%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$76$572026-05-27: 1 insider sale, $305K — Otto Robert P2025-11-10: 1 insider sale, $1.0M — Nooney Kimberly F2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $1.0M2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $305K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Otto Robert P — Sale on 2026-05-27, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Nooney Kimberly F — Sale on 2025-11-10, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-05-27Otto Robert PdirectorSale4,109 @ $74.22$305K−27.4% of holding+4.7%not yet — horizon still open10,886Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-10Nooney Kimberly FofficerSale14,500 @ $70.70$1.0M−29.5% of holding+0.2%−3.4%34,621Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

87 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-05-01Granger Barry MdirectorAward / grant1,92111,716Form 4
2026-05-01Jensen Tony AdirectorAward / grant1,92118,118Form 4
2026-05-01MILLS STEVEN RICHARDdirectorAward / grant1,92129,622Form 4
2026-05-01Waleski Anne GdirectorAward / grant1,9214,237Form 4
2026-05-01McAllister Kathleen SdirectorAward / grant1,92116,529Form 4
2026-05-01Otto Robert PdirectorAward / grant1,92114,995Form 4
2026-05-01Taylor TeresadirectorAward / grant1,92113,646Form 4
2026-05-01Prochazka Scott MdirectorAward / grant1,92111,716Form 4
2026-05-01Beard Robert F.directorAward / grant1,9214,237Form 4
2026-05-01Granger Barry MdirectorAward / grant1,92111,716Form 4
2026-05-01Jensen Tony AdirectorAward / grant1,92118,118Form 4
2026-05-01McAllister Kathleen SdirectorAward / grant1,92116,529Form 4
2026-05-01MILLS STEVEN RICHARDdirectorAward / grant1,92129,622Form 4
2026-05-01Otto Robert PdirectorAward / grant1,92114,995Form 4
2026-05-01Prochazka Scott MdirectorAward / grant1,92111,716Form 4
2026-05-01Waleski Anne GdirectorAward / grant1,9214,237Form 4
2026-05-01Taylor TeresadirectorAward / grant1,92113,646Form 4
2026-02-17Evans Linden RofficerGift2,580172,504Form 4
2026-02-17Evans Linden RofficerGift2,580172,504Form 4
2026-02-17Evans Linden RofficerGift3,731168,773Form 4
2026-02-17Evans Linden RofficerGift3,731168,773Form 4
2026-02-12Evans Linden RofficerAward / grant9,036178,640Form 4
2026-02-12Evans Linden RofficerWithheld for tax3,556175,084Form 4
2026-02-12Nooney Kimberly FofficerAward / grant2,00639,497Form 4
2026-02-12Jones Marne MofficerAward / grant83539,002Form 4
2026-02-12Nooney Kimberly FofficerWithheld for tax80638,691Form 4
2026-02-12Jones Marne MofficerWithheld for tax33438,667Form 4
2026-02-09Evans Linden RofficerWithheld for tax1,382169,604Form 4
2026-02-09Evans Linden RofficerWithheld for tax1,078170,986Form 4
2026-02-09Nooney Kimberly FofficerWithheld for tax37737,491Form 4
2026-02-09Jones Marne MofficerWithheld for tax27638,167Form 4
2026-02-09Nooney Kimberly FofficerWithheld for tax25037,868Form 4
2026-02-09Jones Marne MofficerWithheld for tax10438,442Form 4
2026-02-07Nooney Kimberly FofficerWithheld for tax1,80538,119Form 4
2026-02-07Evans Linden RofficerWithheld for tax1,625172,064Form 4
2026-02-07Jones Marne MofficerWithheld for tax1,41838,547Form 4
2026-02-07Wiltse SarahofficerWithheld for tax2017,532Form 4
2026-02-06Redden Donald Lee JRofficerAward / grant1,6426,910Form 4
2026-02-06Evans Linden RofficerAward / grant17,793173,689Form 4
2026-02-06Nooney Kimberly FofficerAward / grant4,65439,924Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.