BKEThe Buckle, Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Apparel - Retailas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $40.06 · now $40.06 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BKE has typically landed between $34.43 and $46.63 — a range of −14.1% to +16.4% from the issuance price $40.06.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($40.06) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where BKE has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $40.06 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$34.43worst · -14.1%$46.63best · +16.4%
  • now $40.06 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $40.32 (+0.7%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $37.72–$42.92
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $34.43–$46.63
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-13−45.7%−45.7%+0.0%
2020-03-03−44.9%−44.9%+0.0%
2008-10-21−44.5%−44.5%+0.0%
3 best
2009-03-04+55.3%+0.0%+55.3%
2009-03-11+51.9%+0.0%+51.9%
2009-03-05+47.6%−4.0%+47.6%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
35%
+0.3%
n=20
Feb
55%
+1.9%
n=20
Mar
55%
+0.6%
n=20
Apr
60%
+1.5%
n=20
May
35%
−2.6%
n=20
Jun
50%
+1.6%
n=20
Jul
60%
+2.2%
n=20
Aug
40%
−0.5%
n=20
Sep
55%
+2.0%
n=20
Oct
50%
+2.1%
n=20
Nov
70%
+7.9%
n=20
Dec
60%
+3.4%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$57$402026-06-08: 1 insider sale, $111K — FAIRFIELD BILL L2026-04-10: 2 insider sales, $2.5M — SMITH KARI G, HOFFMAN MICHELLE2026-03-20: 1 insider sale, $1.4M — HOFFMAN MICHELLE2026-03-19: 1 insider sale, $36K — HOFFMAN MICHELLE2026-03-17: 1 insider sale, $2.5M — SMITH KARI G2026-03-16: 1 insider sale, $57K — SMITH KARI G2025-09-05: 3 insider sales, $2.7M — SHADA JAMES E, SMITH KARI G, MILKIE BRETT P2025-08-26: 1 insider sale, $84K — Peetz John P2025-08-25: 3 insider sales, $3.3M — HOFFMAN MICHELLE, RHOADS KAREN B …2025-08: 4 open-market sales, $3.4M2025-09: 3 open-market sales, $2.7M2026-03: 4 open-market sales, $4.0M2026-04: 2 open-market sales, $2.5M2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $111K↑ buys↓ salesdirector FAIRFIELD BILL L — Sale on 2026-06-08, filed 2 days after the tradedirector SMITH KARI G — Sale on 2026-04-10, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer HOFFMAN MICHELLE — Sale on 2026-04-10, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer HOFFMAN MICHELLE — Sale on 2026-03-20, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer HOFFMAN MICHELLE — Sale on 2026-03-19, filed 4 days after the tradedirector SMITH KARI G — Sale on 2026-03-17, filed same daydirector SMITH KARI G — Sale on 2026-03-16, filed 1 day after the tradedirector SHADA JAMES E — Sale on 2025-09-05, filed 4 days after the tradedirector SMITH KARI G — Sale on 2025-09-05, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer MILKIE BRETT P — Sale on 2025-09-05, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Peetz John P — Sale on 2025-08-26, filed same dayofficer HOFFMAN MICHELLE — Sale on 2025-08-25, filed 1 day after the tradedirector RHOADS KAREN B — Sale on 2025-08-25, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer HOFFMAN MICHELLE — Sale on 2025-08-25, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-06-08FAIRFIELD BILL LdirectorSale2,500 @ $44.44$111K−4.5% of holding−8.7%not yet — horizon still open52,908Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-10SMITH KARI GdirectorSale30,000 @ $54.57$1.6M−26.4% of holding−16.7%not yet — horizon still open83,814Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-04-10HOFFMAN MICHELLEofficerSale16,200 @ $54.80$888K−35.3% of holding−16.7%not yet — horizon still open29,682Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-20HOFFMAN MICHELLEofficerSale29,281 @ $49.12$1.4M−39.0% of holding+5.5%not yet — horizon still open45,882Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-19HOFFMAN MICHELLEofficerSale719 @ $50.00$36K−0.9% of holding+6.1%not yet — horizon still open75,163Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-17SMITH KARI GdirectorSale48,860 @ $50.39$2.5M−38.9% of holding+0.7%−32.5%76,754Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-16SMITH KARI GdirectorSale1,140 @ $49.81$57K−0.9% of holding+2.7%−32.2%125,614Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-05SHADA JAMES EdirectorSale20,000 @ $59.49$1.2M−26.5% of holding−5.3%−14.7%55,352Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-09-05SMITH KARI GdirectorSale20,000 @ $59.36$1.2M−11.7% of holding−5.3%−14.7%150,354Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-09-05MILKIE BRETT PofficerSale6,000 @ $60.17$361K−6.3% of holding−5.3%−14.7%89,570Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-26Peetz John PdirectorSale1,500 @ $55.74$84K−6.0% of holding+4.3%−1.6%23,623Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-25HOFFMAN MICHELLEofficerSale20,000 @ $56.22$1.1M−20.9% of holding+2.1%−5.3%75,882Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-25RHOADS KAREN BdirectorSale20,000 @ $55.82$1.1M−9.2% of holding+2.1%−5.3%196,776Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-25HOFFMAN MICHELLEofficerSale19,009 @ $55.86$1.1M−100.0% of holding+2.1%−5.3%0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-23SHADA JAMES EdirectorSale10,000 @ $49.98$500K−11.7% of holding+9.2%+3.6%75,352Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-22SHADA JAMES EdirectorSale10,000 @ $49.84$498K−10.5% of holding+9.3%+9.9%85,352Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-11NELSON DENNIS HdirectorSale20,453 @ $43.52$890K−1.2% of holding+6.4%+16.3%1,655,204Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-15NELSON DENNIS HdirectorSale30,678 @ $40.57$1.2M−1.8% of holding+7.2%+24.9%1,675,657Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-14NELSON DENNIS HdirectorSale43,915 @ $39.72$1.7M−2.5% of holding+5.8%+26.6%1,706,335Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-23NELSON DENNIS HdirectorSale2,105 @ $36.36$77K−0.1% of holding+10.9%+36.4%1,728,250Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-09NELSON DENNIS HdirectorSale13,020 @ $36.56$476K−0.7% of holding−0.5%+27.7%1,730,355Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-08NELSON DENNIS HdirectorSale2,320 @ $36.31$84K−0.1% of holding−3.2%+36.1%1,743,375Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-17NELSON DENNIS HdirectorSale15,340 @ $36.32$557K−0.9% of holding−2.0%+49.5%1,647,695Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-03NELSON DENNIS HdirectorSale15,340 @ $39.51$606K−0.9% of holding+2.3%+39.9%1,663,035Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-25NELSON DENNIS HdirectorSale20,453 @ $40.86$836K−1.2% of holding+2.4%+30.1%1,678,375Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-11NELSON DENNIS HdirectorSale20,453 @ $43.42$888K−1.2% of holding−10.1%+27.0%1,698,828Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-22NELSON DENNIS HdirectorSale20,453 @ $48.07$983K−1.2% of holding−13.2%−1.2%1,719,281Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-21NELSON DENNIS HdirectorSale130 @ $48.51$6K−23.8% of holding−14.1%−1.2%415Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-17NELSON DENNIS HdirectorSale100 @ $48.03$5K−15.5% of holding−13.9%−1.5%545Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-01-06NELSON DENNIS HdirectorSale20,453 @ $51.57$1.1M−1.2% of holding−8.8%−7.3%1,739,734Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-17NELSON DENNIS HdirectorSale20,453 @ $51.37$1.1M−1.1% of holding−0.4%−8.6%1,760,187Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-12Peetz John PdirectorSale2,500 @ $51.70$129K−10.2% of holding+1.0%−7.0%22,123Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-10SMITH KARI GdirectorSale20,000 @ $52.29$1.0M−11.7% of holding+1.0%−12.5%150,554Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

42 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-30KLEIN ANGIE JdirectorOther acquisition3,56214,438Form 4
2026-06-05MILKIE BRETT PofficerGift12,00095,970Form 4
2026-04-20SMITH KARI GdirectorGift5,00078,814Form 4
2026-04-13HOFFMAN MICHELLEofficerGift10,00019,682Form 4
2026-03-16FAIRFIELD BILL LdirectorGift40055,408Form 4
2026-03-16SMITH KARI GdirectorGift40,000126,754Form 4
2026-02-01BOUNDS HANK MdirectorAward / grant3,00020,250Form 4
2026-02-01FAIRFIELD BILL LdirectorAward / grant3,00055,808Form 4
2026-02-01RHOADS KAREN BdirectorAward / grant3,0006,687Form 4
2026-02-01SHADA JAMES EdirectorAward / grant3,0006,687Form 4
2026-02-01HOBERMAN BRUCEdirectorAward / grant3,00046,880Form 4
2026-02-01NELSON DENNIS HdirectorAward / grant120,000444,000Form 4
2026-02-01MILKIE BRETT PofficerAward / grant18,40068,080Form 4
2026-02-01Peetz John PdirectorAward / grant3,00026,623Form 4
2026-02-01HUSS MICHAEL EdirectorAward / grant3,00034,562Form 4
2026-02-01HEACOCK THOMAS BdirectorAward / grant18,400184,950Form 4
2026-02-01FRITZ JENSCHKE BRADY MofficerAward / grant13,00092,000Form 4
2026-02-01KLEIN ANGIE JdirectorAward / grant3,00018,000Form 4
2026-02-01JOSHI SHRUTI SdirectorAward / grant3,00011,250Form 4
2025-12-05RHOADS KAREN BdirectorGift1,000193,776Form 4
2025-11-24NELSON DENNIS HdirectorGift1,5001,653,704Form 4
2025-10-16HUSS MICHAEL EdirectorGift1,00031,562Form 4
2025-08-25RHOADS KAREN BdirectorGift2,000194,776Form 4
2025-04-15FAIRFIELD BILL LdirectorGift40052,808Form 4
2025-02-02HOFFMAN MICHELLEofficerAward / grant14,00095,882Form 4
2025-02-02FRITZ JENSCHKE BRADY MofficerAward / grant13,00079,000Form 4
2025-02-02RHOADS KAREN BdirectorAward / grant3,0006,374Form 4
2025-02-02KLEIN ANGIE JdirectorAward / grant3,00015,000Form 4
2025-02-02SMITH KARI GdirectorAward / grant19,80073,260Form 4
2025-02-02BOUNDS HANK MdirectorAward / grant3,00017,250Form 4
2025-02-02FAIRFIELD BILL LdirectorAward / grant3,00053,208Form 4
2025-02-02HOBERMAN BRUCEdirectorAward / grant3,00043,880Form 4
2025-02-02Peetz John PdirectorAward / grant3,00025,123Form 4
2025-02-02HUSS MICHAEL EdirectorAward / grant3,00032,562Form 4
2025-02-02SHADA JAMES EdirectorAward / grant3,0006,374Form 4
2025-02-02JOSHI SHRUTI SdirectorAward / grant3,0008,250Form 4
2025-02-02NELSON DENNIS HdirectorAward / grant120,000444,000Form 4
2025-02-02MILKIE BRETT PofficerAward / grant18,40068,080Form 4
2025-02-02HEACOCK THOMAS BdirectorAward / grant18,400166,550Form 4
2024-12-11NELSON DENNIS HdirectorGift5001,780,640Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.