BKD · TickerCove

BKDBrookdale Senior Living Inc.Healthcare · Medical - Care Facilitiesas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $11.67 · now $11.67 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BKD has typically landed between $9.56 and $14.48 — a range of −18.1% to +24.1% from the issuance price $11.67.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($11.67) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$11.67 · 46% of range

$7.36 low$16.77 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.8%

typical move · IQR 16.8%

−18.1%worst (p90)+24.1%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where BKD has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $11.67 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $11.67 (+0.0%)
typical $11.77 (+0.8%)
middle 50% $10.79–$12.75
90% range $9.56–$14.48

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-20	−77.2%	−79.0%	+0.0%
2020-02-19	−75.7%	−79.3%	+0.0%
2020-02-18	−74.9%	−74.9%	+21.1%
3 best
2009-03-05	+143.1%	+0.0%	+143.1%
2009-04-08	+120.1%	+0.0%	+120.1%
2009-03-30	+110.1%	+0.0%	+110.1%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

60%

+3.4%

n=20

Feb

60%

+2.9%

n=20

Mar

60%

+0.6%

n=20

Apr

65%

+9.3%

n=20

May

50%

−1.2%

n=20

Jun

50%

−0.5%

n=20

Jul

45%

−0.9%

n=20

Aug

35%

+1.2%

n=20

Sep

35%

−1.5%

n=20

Oct

50%

−2.0%

n=20

Nov

45%

−1.0%

n=20

Dec

50%

+0.1%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2025-05-19	Wielansky Lee S	director	Sale	10,000 @ $6.82	$68K	−4.3% of holding	+0.9%	+42.9%	223,836	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-07	Wielansky Lee S	director	Sale	10,000 @ $5.84	$58K	−4.1% of holding	+9.4%	+21.3%	233,836	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-12-05	Wielansky Lee S	director	Sale	10,000 @ $5.62	$56K	−4.5% of holding	−11.1%	+26.7%	211,382	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

65 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-07-29	WINKLE C CHRISTIAN	director	Award / grant	6,729	6,729	Form 4
2026-05-22	Asher Jordan R	director	Gift	7,600	141,843	Form 4
2026-03-02	White Chad C.	officer	Gift	27,300	562,560	Form 4
2026-03-01	Pritchett Jaclyn C	officer	Withheld for tax	4,042	152,980	Form 4
2026-02-27	Kussow Dawn L	officer	Withheld for tax	69,698	486,476	Form 4
2026-02-27	White Chad C.	officer	Withheld for tax	44,174	589,860	Form 4
2026-02-27	Pritchett Jaclyn C	officer	Withheld for tax	14,831	157,022	Form 4
2026-02-12	FIORAVANTI MARK	director	Award / grant	7,069	23,095	Form 4
2026-02-12	Stengle Nikolas W	director	Award / grant	114,040	271,771	Form 4
2026-02-12	Freed Vicki L	director	Award / grant	9,810	179,526	Form 4
2026-02-12	Warren Denise Wilder	director	Award / grant	5,080	364,914	Form 4
2026-02-12	Patchett Mary Sue	director	Award / grant	21,286	60,123	Form 4
2026-02-12	Kussow Dawn L	officer	Award / grant	41,692	437,369	Form 4
2026-02-12	Kussow Dawn L	officer	Award / grant	118,805	556,174	Form 4
2026-02-12	Wielansky Lee S	director	Award / grant	9,810	233,646	Form 4
2026-02-12	White Chad C.	officer	Award / grant	22,072	540,095	Form 4
2026-02-12	White Chad C.	officer	Award / grant	93,939	634,034	Form 4
2026-02-12	Pritchett Jaclyn C	officer	Award / grant	11,036	140,415	Form 4
2026-02-12	Pritchett Jaclyn C	officer	Award / grant	31,438	171,853	Form 4
2026-02-12	Asher Jordan R	director	Award / grant	9,810	149,443	Form 4
2026-02-12	Hausman Joshua	director	Award / grant	6,773	19,676	Form 4
2026-02-12	Drayton Claudia	director	Award / grant	9,810	41,265	Form 4
2026-02-12	MACE ELIZABETH B.	director	Award / grant	9,810	41,265	Form 4
2025-10-06	Stengle Nikolas W	director	Award / grant	157,731	157,731	Form 4
2025-09-30	KAESTNER H TODD	officer	Withheld for tax	23,602	367,014	Form 4
2025-09-30	KAESTNER H TODD	officer	Disposition	67,166	299,848	Form 4
2025-08-20	RICCI BENJAMIN J.	officer	Withheld for tax	199	178,954	Form 4
2025-07-31	Hausman Joshua	director	Award / grant	12,903	12,903	Form 4
2025-05-21	HICKS GEORGE T	officer	Disposition	67,970	314,631	Form 4
2025-04-27	Warren Denise Wilder	director	Award / grant	158,730	359,834	Form 4
2025-04-17	FIORAVANTI MARK	director	Award / grant	16,026	16,026	Form 4
2025-04-13	BAIER LUCINDA M	director	Withheld for tax	241,971	2,992,838	Form 4
2025-04-13	BAIER LUCINDA M	director	Disposition	658,228	2,334,610	Form 4
2025-03-06	White Chad C.	officer	Gift	25,000	518,023	Form 4
2025-03-01	Pritchett Jaclyn C	officer	Withheld for tax	10,063	129,379	Form 4
2025-02-27	BAIER LUCINDA M	director	Withheld for tax	412,522	3,234,809	Form 4
2025-02-27	KAESTNER H TODD	officer	Withheld for tax	37,538	390,616	Form 4
2025-02-27	Kussow Dawn L	officer	Withheld for tax	34,758	395,677	Form 4
2025-02-27	White Chad C.	officer	Withheld for tax	33,327	543,023	Form 4
2025-02-27	HICKS GEORGE T	officer	Withheld for tax	15,130	382,601	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i