Issued 2026-09-16 at $59.60 · now $59.60 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BJRI has typically landed between $48.90 and $72.41 — a range of −18.0% to +21.5% from the issuance price $59.60.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($59.60) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where BJRI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $59.6 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $59.6 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $60.19 (+1.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $55.23–$65.16
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $48.9–$72.41
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −84.4% | −84.4% | +3.6% |
| 2020-02-20 | −81.2% | −85.0% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-19 | −80.9% | −84.8% | +1.4% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-18 | +165.9% | +0.0% | +176.8% |
| 2020-03-19 | +103.0% | +0.0% | +120.7% |
| 2020-03-20 | +101.5% | +0.0% | +120.7% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
55%
+1.9%
n=20
Feb
60%
+1.4%
n=20
Mar
60%
−0.8%
n=20
Apr
60%
+6.1%
n=20
May
45%
+1.3%
n=20
Jun
45%
−0.4%
n=20
Jul
45%
−1.2%
n=20
Aug
50%
+1.8%
n=20
Sep
35%
−2.8%
n=20
Oct
55%
+2.0%
n=20
Nov
70%
+4.1%
n=20
Dec
50%
+1.0%
n=20
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Richmond C Bradford | director | Purchase | 500 @ $59.50 | $30K | +1.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 36,500 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-02 | Richmond C Bradford | director | Purchase | 500 @ $61.05 | $31K | +1.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 36,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-31 | Richmond C Bradford | director | Purchase | 753 @ $63.25 | $48K | +2.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 35,500 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-10 | Elbogen Noah A. | director | Sale | 7,535 @ $70.14 | $529K | −9.5% of holding | −10.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 71,655 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Miller Kendra D | officer | Sale | 2,978 @ $69.80 | $208K | −10.4% of holding | −11.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 25,621 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-06 | Lynds Gregory S | officer | Sale | 21,704 @ $68.81 | $1.5M | −46.7% of holding | −14.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,770 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | Miller Kendra D | officer | Sale | 10,217 @ $69.31 | $708K | −26.3% of holding | −14.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,599 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Lynds Gregory S | officer | Sale | 25,350 @ $67.47 | $1.7M | −35.3% of holding | −10.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 46,474 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Miller Kendra D | officer | Sale | 14,716 @ $55.60 | $818K | −30.7% of holding | +24.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 33,144 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Krakower Brian S | officer | Sale | 7,341 @ $55.17 | $405K | −60.9% of holding | +24.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,721 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Lynds Gregory S | officer | Sale | 6,201 @ $55.86 | $346K | −11.8% of holding | +24.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 46,474 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Miller Kendra D | officer | Sale | 4,545 @ $55.60 | $253K | −13.7% of holding | +24.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,599 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Elbogen Noah A. | director | Sale | 4,652 @ $54.00 | $251K | −5.8% of holding | +24.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 76,235 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Ottinger Lea Anne | director | Sale | 2,792 @ $53.50 | $149K | −6.6% of holding | +24.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 39,701 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Rogers Heidi | officer | Sale | 3,090 @ $53.21 | $164K | −25.0% of holding | +13.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,265 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Lynds Gregory S | officer | Sale | 5,537 @ $50.76 | $281K | −10.6% of holding | +16.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 46,474 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | Miller Kendra D | officer | Sale | 7,419 @ $48.56 | $360K | −20.6% of holding | +25.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,599 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | Elbogen Noah A. | director | Sale | 4,049 @ $47.85 | $194K | −5.0% of holding | +30.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 76,235 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Krakower Brian S | officer | Sale | 3,134 @ $46.70 | $146K | −39.9% of holding | +29.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,721 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Krakower Brian S | officer | Sale | 341 @ $46.83 | $16K | −6.7% of holding | +29.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,721 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Krakower Brian S | officer | Sale | 2,600 @ $35.03 | $91K | −33.9% of holding | +1.6% | +57.1% | 5,062 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | Richmond C Bradford | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $34.05 | $34K | +5.6% of holding | +6.1% | +64.8% | 18,700 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-06 | Richmond C Bradford | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $34.50 | $35K | +6.0% of holding | +6.8% | +55.1% | 17,700 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-03 | Richmond C Bradford | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $35.05 | $35K | +6.5% of holding | +2.8% | +59.5% | 16,500 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Richmond C Bradford | director | Purchase | 200 @ $35.36 | $7K | +1.2% of holding | +2.8% | +59.5% | 16,700 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Krakower Brian S | officer | Sale | 7,847 @ $39.61 | $311K | −63.1% of holding | +13.7% | +20.6% | 4,579 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Krakower Brian S | officer | Sale | 170 @ $39.71 | $7K | −3.7% of holding | +13.7% | +20.6% | 4,409 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-08 | PUCHNER ALEX | officer | Sale | 1,821 @ $34.06 | $62K | −14.6% of holding | −11.6% | +3.8% | 10,622 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-19 | Guild Jacob | officer | Sale | 9,521 @ $35.51 | $338K | −71.5% of holding | −18.7% | +10.8% | 3,803 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-19 | Rogers Heidi | officer | Sale | 4,116 @ $35.36 | $146K | −36.6% of holding | −18.7% | +10.8% | 7,144 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-16 | Trojan Greg | director | Sale | 134,486 @ $44.64 | $6.0M | −87.1% of holding | +0.5% | −32.3% | 19,896 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-16 | Trojan Greg | director | Sale | 11,616 @ $44.50 | $517K | −36.9% of holding | +0.5% | −32.3% | 19,896 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-15 | Krakower Brian S | officer | Sale | 3,100 @ $44.32 | $137K | −40.4% of holding | −1.2% | −31.5% | 4,579 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-15 | Krakower Brian S | officer | Sale | 638 @ $44.33 | $28K | −12.2% of holding | −1.2% | −31.5% | 4,579 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-28 | Fund 1 Investments, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 35,500 @ $33.25 | $1.2M | −1.6% of holding | +26.1% | −31.1% | 2,231,396 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-25 | Fund 1 Investments, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 50,000 @ $33.23 | $1.7M | ownership Δ n/a | +25.9% | −24.8% | 50,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
217 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | Richmond C Bradford | director | Gift | 16,047 | 34,747 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Richmond C Bradford | director | Gift | 16,047 | 2,955 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Miller Kendra D | officer | Option exercise | 4,771 | 33,370 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Miller Kendra D | officer | Option exercise | 4,556 | 37,926 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Miller Kendra D | officer | Option exercise | 890 | 38,816 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Miller Kendra D | officer | Option exercise | 890 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Miller Kendra D | officer | Option exercise | 4,556 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Miller Kendra D | officer | Option exercise | 4,771 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Lynds Gregory S | officer | Option exercise | 7,163 | 58,408 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Lynds Gregory S | officer | Option exercise | 4,771 | 51,245 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Lynds Gregory S | officer | Option exercise | 4,556 | 62,964 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Lynds Gregory S | officer | Option exercise | 4,545 | 71,824 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Lynds Gregory S | officer | Option exercise | 4,315 | 67,279 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Lynds Gregory S | officer | Option exercise | 4,771 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Lynds Gregory S | officer | Option exercise | 7,163 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Lynds Gregory S | officer | Option exercise | 4,556 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Lynds Gregory S | officer | Option exercise | 4,315 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Lynds Gregory S | officer | Option exercise | 4,545 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | Tick Lyle | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,313 | 36,575 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | Tick Lyle | officer | Award / grant | 7,558 | 39,888 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Jaffe Jennifer Anne | officer | Withheld for tax | 903 | 10,611 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Kowalski Thomas Michael | officer | Withheld for tax | 460 | 8,066 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Van Ashley Allison | officer | Award / grant | 2,580 | 2,580 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Van Ashley Allison | officer | Award / grant | 5,369 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Saxena Monika | officer | Award / grant | 8,948 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Saxena Monika | officer | Award / grant | 4,300 | 4,300 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Amin Birju Prakash | officer | Award / grant | 3,010 | 3,010 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Amin Birju Prakash | officer | Award / grant | 6,264 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Miller Kendra D | officer | Option exercise | 7,163 | 35,762 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Lynds Gregory S | officer | Option exercise | 6,201 | 52,675 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Elbogen Noah A. | director | Option exercise | 4,652 | 80,887 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Ottinger Lea Anne | director | Option exercise | 4,153 | 42,493 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Miller Kendra D | officer | Option exercise | 4,545 | 44,622 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Miller Kendra D | officer | Option exercise | 4,315 | 40,077 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Krakower Brian S | officer | Option exercise | 3,300 | 11,172 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Krakower Brian S | officer | Option exercise | 3,151 | 7,872 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Miller Kendra D | officer | Option exercise | 3,238 | 47,860 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Krakower Brian S | officer | Option exercise | 890 | 12,062 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Ottinger Lea Anne | director | Option exercise | 4,153 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Sherlock Janet | director | Award / grant | 2,955 | 26,199 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.