Issued 2026-09-16 at $92.98 · now $92.98 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BJ has typically landed between $83.64 and $105.44 — a range of −10.0% to +13.4% from the issuance price $92.98.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,044 overlapping 1 month windows · 2018-06-28 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($92.98) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where BJ has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $92.98 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $92.98 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $93.83 (+0.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $89.56–$98.09
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $83.64–$105.44
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,044 windows spanning 2018-06-28 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-04-21 | −25.3% | −25.3% | +0.0% |
| 2022-04-19 | −23.2% | −23.2% | +0.6% |
| 2018-09-25 | −23.0% | −23.0% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-04-23 | +40.2% | −1.7% | +40.2% |
| 2020-05-01 | +39.4% | +0.0% | +41.8% |
| 2020-04-30 | +39.4% | −0.6% | +41.0% |
2,044 overlapping windows · 2018-06-28 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~9 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
63%
+4.1%
n=8
Feb
50%
+1.2%
n=8
Mar
88%
+10.2%
n=8
Apr
50%
−0.1%
n=8
May
38%
+0.3%
n=8
Jun
75%
+2.6%
n=8
Jul
78%
+3.6%
n=9
Aug
67%
+4.5%
n=9
Sep
33%
−1.7%
n=9
Oct
50%
−2.0%
n=8
Nov
63%
+2.7%
n=8
Dec
38%
−4.0%
n=8
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | McGrail Joseph | officer | Sale | 1,500 @ $96.65 | $145K | −10.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 13,269 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Eddy Robert W. | director | Sale | 4,900 @ $100.01 | $490K | −1.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 274,330 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Eddy Robert W. | director | Sale | 7,900 @ $93.64 | $740K | −2.8% of holding | +4.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 274,430 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Eddy Robert W. | director | Sale | 100 @ $93.98 | $9K | −0.0% of holding | +4.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 274,330 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-29 | Eddy Robert W. | director | Sale | 73,016 @ $100.02 | $7.3M | −20.5% of holding | −15.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 282,330 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Eddy Robert W. | director | Sale | 4,124 @ $90.29 | $372K | −1.4% of holding | +0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 285,806 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Eddy Robert W. | director | Sale | 3,476 @ $91.30 | $317K | −1.2% of holding | +0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 282,330 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Eddy Robert W. | director | Sale | 400 @ $89.15 | $36K | −0.1% of holding | +0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 289,930 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Eddy Robert W. | director | Sale | 6,600 @ $90.21 | $595K | −2.2% of holding | +3.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 291,730 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Eddy Robert W. | director | Sale | 1,400 @ $91.35 | $128K | −0.5% of holding | +3.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 290,330 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | Schmadeke Scott | officer | Sale | 16,500 @ $92.17 | $1.5M | −44.6% of holding | −6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,471 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Eddy Robert W. | director | Sale | 5,543 @ $95.91 | $532K | −1.8% of holding | −8.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 300,787 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Eddy Robert W. | director | Sale | 2,457 @ $96.60 | $237K | −0.8% of holding | −8.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 298,330 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-15 | Eddy Robert W. | director | Sale | 7,700 @ $90.99 | $701K | −2.4% of holding | −1.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 306,630 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-15 | McGrail Joseph | officer | Sale | 2,050 @ $91.19 | $187K | −12.2% of holding | −1.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,769 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-15 | Eddy Robert W. | director | Sale | 300 @ $91.69 | $28K | −0.1% of holding | −1.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 306,330 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-13 | Morningstar Timothy Pierce | officer | Sale | 7,436 @ $93.19 | $693K | −16.1% of holding | −8.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 38,780 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-10 | Morningstar Timothy Pierce | officer | Sale | 7,436 @ $90.40 | $672K | −13.9% of holding | −10.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 46,216 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Felice Laura L. | director | Sale | 8,400 @ $104.95 | $882K | −9.5% of holding | −2.0% | −19.8% | 80,074 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Werner William C. | officer | Sale | 7,000 @ $91.09 | $638K | −12.2% of holding | −4.3% | −10.0% | 50,498 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | Eddy Robert W. | director | Sale | 6,998 @ $90.53 | $634K | −2.3% of holding | +1.3% | −6.2% | 296,735 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | Eddy Robert W. | director | Sale | 5,100 @ $89.04 | $454K | −1.6% of holding | +1.3% | −6.2% | 308,333 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | Eddy Robert W. | director | Sale | 4,600 @ $89.73 | $413K | −1.5% of holding | +1.3% | −6.2% | 303,733 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | Eddy Robert W. | director | Sale | 1,200 @ $87.67 | $105K | −0.4% of holding | +1.3% | −6.2% | 313,433 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | Eddy Robert W. | director | Sale | 11,744 @ $90.62 | $1.1M | −3.5% of holding | −3.0% | +9.4% | 320,789 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | Eddy Robert W. | director | Sale | 5,056 @ $91.05 | $460K | −1.6% of holding | −3.0% | +9.4% | 315,733 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | Eddy Robert W. | director | Sale | 600 @ $93.27 | $56K | −0.2% of holding | −3.0% | +9.4% | 314,633 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | Eddy Robert W. | director | Sale | 500 @ $92.15 | $46K | −0.2% of holding | −3.0% | +9.4% | 315,233 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-17 | Luce Graham | officer | Sale | 6,300 @ $99.86 | $629K | −35.2% of holding | −6.8% | −3.2% | 11,617 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | Eddy Robert W. | director | Sale | 17,700 @ $98.15 | $1.7M | −5.1% of holding | −12.6% | −6.2% | 332,733 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | Eddy Robert W. | director | Sale | 200 @ $98.71 | $20K | −0.1% of holding | −12.6% | −6.2% | 332,533 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-26 | Ortega Steven L | director | Purchase | 2,080 @ $96.09 | $200K | +20.2% of holding | −4.7% | −6.7% | 12,383 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-01 | Cichocki Paul | officer | Sale | 58,436 @ $110.08 | $6.4M | −33.9% of holding | −13.3% | −28.6% | 114,127 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-01 | Eddy Robert W. | director | Sale | 8,538 @ $108.03 | $922K | −2.3% of holding | −13.3% | −28.6% | 357,133 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-01 | Eddy Robert W. | director | Sale | 3,560 @ $109.93 | $391K | −1.0% of holding | −13.3% | −28.6% | 350,433 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-01 | Eddy Robert W. | director | Sale | 3,140 @ $109.03 | $342K | −0.9% of holding | −13.3% | −28.6% | 353,993 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-01 | Eddy Robert W. | director | Sale | 2,662 @ $107.13 | $285K | −0.7% of holding | −13.3% | −28.6% | 365,671 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-11 | Cichocki Paul | officer | Sale | 39,505 @ $106.59 | $4.2M | −18.3% of holding | −1.1% | −27.5% | 176,883 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-11 | Cichocki Paul | officer | Sale | 4,320 @ $107.20 | $463K | −2.4% of holding | −1.1% | −27.5% | 172,563 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-01 | Eddy Robert W. | director | Sale | 9,894 @ $107.27 | $1.1M | −2.6% of holding | −3.4% | −27.7% | 369,031 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-01 | Eddy Robert W. | director | Sale | 7,308 @ $106.73 | $780K | −1.9% of holding | −3.4% | −27.7% | 378,925 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-01 | Eddy Robert W. | director | Sale | 698 @ $108.03 | $75K | −0.2% of holding | −3.4% | −27.7% | 368,333 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-03 | Steele Robert Allan | director | Sale | 9,815 @ $112.21 | $1.1M | −40.3% of holding | −7.3% | −33.4% | 14,536 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-02 | Eddy Robert W. | director | Sale | 9,924 @ $111.60 | $1.1M | −2.5% of holding | −7.3% | −36.1% | 394,209 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-02 | Eddy Robert W. | director | Sale | 6,854 @ $112.34 | $770K | −1.7% of holding | −7.3% | −36.1% | 387,355 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-02 | Eddy Robert W. | director | Sale | 1,122 @ $113.21 | $127K | −0.3% of holding | −7.3% | −36.1% | 386,233 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-27 | Ortega Steven L | director | Purchase | 1,740 @ $114.60 | $199K | +25.2% of holding | −5.1% | −37.2% | 8,641 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-01 | Eddy Robert W. | director | Sale | 12,435 @ $117.39 | $1.5M | −2.9% of holding | −10.9% | −46.1% | 409,098 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-01 | Eddy Robert W. | director | Sale | 4,965 @ $117.90 | $585K | −1.2% of holding | −10.9% | −46.1% | 404,133 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-01 | Eddy Robert W. | director | Sale | 500 @ $115.95 | $58K | −0.1% of holding | −10.9% | −46.1% | 421,533 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-15 | McGrail Joseph | officer | Sale | 2,100 @ $119.74 | $251K | −12.9% of holding | −16.0% | −44.7% | 14,240 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-07 | Eddy Robert W. | director | Sale | 132,475 @ $114.33 | $15.1M | −21.0% of holding | −7.0% | −54.9% | 498,069 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-07 | Eddy Robert W. | director | Sale | 46,374 @ $115.19 | $5.3M | −9.3% of holding | −7.0% | −54.9% | 451,695 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-07 | Eddy Robert W. | director | Sale | 39,527 @ $113.55 | $4.5M | −5.9% of holding | −7.0% | −54.9% | 630,544 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-07 | Eddy Robert W. | director | Sale | 27,562 @ $116.29 | $3.2M | −6.1% of holding | −7.0% | −54.9% | 424,133 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-07 | Eddy Robert W. | director | Sale | 22,277 @ $112.27 | $2.5M | −3.2% of holding | −7.0% | −54.9% | 670,071 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-07 | Eddy Robert W. | director | Sale | 10,085 @ $111.45 | $1.1M | −1.4% of holding | −7.0% | −54.9% | 692,348 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-07 | Eddy Robert W. | director | Sale | 2,100 @ $116.91 | $246K | −0.5% of holding | −7.0% | −54.9% | 422,033 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-04 | Schwartz Monica | officer | Sale | 10,963 @ $115.65 | $1.3M | −48.0% of holding | −6.8% | −55.6% | 11,879 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-03 | Werner William C. | officer | Sale | 7,299 @ $118.32 | $864K | −21.7% of holding | −4.2% | −47.2% | 26,281 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
91 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Eddy Robert W. | director | Option exercise | 4,900 | 279,230 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Eddy Robert W. | director | Option exercise | 4,900 | 184,584 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Schwartz Monica | officer | Withheld for tax | 485 | 23,080 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | Eddy Robert W. | director | Option exercise | 73,016 | 355,346 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | Eddy Robert W. | director | Option exercise | 73,016 | 189,484 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Brown Darryl | director | Award / grant | 2,288 | 14,289 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Burwick David A | director | Award / grant | 2,288 | 5,982 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Ortega Steven L | director | Award / grant | 2,288 | 14,671 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Parent Kenneth M. | director | Award / grant | 2,288 | 28,301 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Peterson Christopher H | director | Award / grant | 2,288 | 26,413 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Robinson Cathy Marie | director | Award / grant | 2,288 | 8,396 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Steele Robert Allan | director | Award / grant | 2,288 | 18,486 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Naylor Maile | director | Award / grant | 2,288 | 22,226 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Gloeckler Michelle J. | director | Award / grant | 2,288 | 22,226 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Eddy Robert W. | director | Withheld for tax | 49,137 | 259,368 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Cichocki Paul | officer | Withheld for tax | 16,099 | 89,382 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Felice Laura L. | director | Withheld for tax | 11,225 | 79,128 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Morningstar Timothy Pierce | officer | Withheld for tax | 10,996 | 41,101 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Werner William C. | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,495 | 50,863 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Luce Graham | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,962 | 11,853 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Schwartz Monica | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,509 | 15,638 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Schmadeke Scott | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,883 | 28,780 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | McGrail Joseph | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,060 | 12,691 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Cichocki Paul | officer | Award / grant | 16,326 | 105,481 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Eddy Robert W. | director | Award / grant | 48,376 | 308,505 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Eddy Robert W. | director | Award / grant | 54,962 | 314,330 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Luce Graham | officer | Award / grant | 6,198 | 17,815 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Luce Graham | officer | Award / grant | 6,341 | 18,194 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Morningstar Timothy Pierce | officer | Award / grant | 12,551 | 53,652 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Morningstar Timothy Pierce | officer | Award / grant | 10,884 | 52,097 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Schmadeke Scott | officer | Award / grant | 2,569 | 33,663 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Schmadeke Scott | officer | Award / grant | 8,191 | 36,971 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Felice Laura L. | director | Award / grant | 10,279 | 90,353 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Felice Laura L. | director | Award / grant | 13,740 | 92,868 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Cichocki Paul | officer | Award / grant | 15,854 | 105,236 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | McGrail Joseph | officer | Award / grant | 1,511 | 15,751 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | McGrail Joseph | officer | Award / grant | 4,128 | 16,819 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Werner William C. | officer | Award / grant | 7,860 | 58,358 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Werner William C. | officer | Award / grant | 6,870 | 57,733 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Schwartz Monica | officer | Award / grant | 6,046 | 21,147 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.