Issued 2026-08-13 at $10.48 · now $10.43 (2026-08-13, −0.5% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-08-13 close, BIOA has typically landed between $7.58 and $16.05 — a range of −27.7% to +53.1% from the issuance price $10.48.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
448 overlapping 1 month windows · 2024-09-26 – 2026-07-14 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.8% (90% CI 51.6–56.0%, ≈1,400 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-08-13 issuance close ($10.48) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-09-11, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where BIOA has typically landed a month from the 2026-08-13 close of $10.48 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $10.43 (-0.5%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $10.87 (+3.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $9.45–$12.3
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $7.58–$16.05
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2024-11-11 | −79.8% | −80.3% | +0.0% |
| 2024-11-13 | −79.5% | −79.5% | +0.0% |
| 2024-11-14 | −79.0% | −79.0% | +3.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-12-12 | +78.0% | −4.5% | +78.0% |
| 2025-12-17 | +73.3% | +0.0% | +86.3% |
| 2025-12-15 | +72.6% | −1.3% | +83.9% |
448 overlapping windows · 2024-09-26 – 2026-08-13 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- 2026-11-30 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: A Phase 2 Study to Evaluate the Pharmacodynamics, Safety and Tolerability of BGE-102 in Participants With Obesity and Cardiovascular Risk Factors (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~2 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Company insiders iOpen-market share purchases and sales by the company's own officers and directors, by filing date.
Last 90 days · as of 2026-08-13 · point-in-time by filing date
No insider transactions on record in the last 90 days.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. Full terms.