Issued 2026-09-25 at $7.05 · now $7.05 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, BIOA has typically landed between $4.92 and $10.71 — a range of −30.3% to +51.9% from the issuance price $7.05.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
478 overlapping 1 month windows · 2024-09-26 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($7.05) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where BIOA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $7.05 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $7.05 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $7.19 (+2.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $6.18–$8.21
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $4.92–$10.71
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2024-11-11 | −79.8% | −80.3% | +0.0% |
| 2024-11-13 | −79.5% | −79.5% | +0.0% |
| 2024-11-14 | −79.0% | −79.0% | +3.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-12-12 | +78.0% | −4.5% | +78.0% |
| 2025-12-17 | +73.3% | +0.0% | +86.3% |
| 2025-12-15 | +72.6% | −1.3% | +83.9% |
478 overlapping windows · 2024-09-26 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- 2026-11-30 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: A Phase 2 Study to Evaluate the Pharmacodynamics, Safety and Tolerability of BGE-102 in Participants With Obesity and Cardiovascular Risk Factors (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~2 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | Barton Shane | officer | Sale | 20,216 @ $25.19 | $509K | −100.0% of holding | +2.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-29 | Barton Shane | officer | Sale | 42,350 @ $25.21 | $1.1M | −100.0% of holding | −9.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | RUBIN PAUL D | officer | Sale | 8,820 @ $17.81 | $157K | −100.0% of holding | −15.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | RUBIN PAUL D | officer | Sale | 7,433 @ $20.30 | $151K | −100.0% of holding | −14.4% | −67.7% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | RUBIN PAUL D | officer | Sale | 7,433 @ $18.75 | $139K | −100.0% of holding | +6.3% | −56.7% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-13 | Fortney Kristen | director | Sale | 233,107 @ $18.12 | $4.2M | −19.3% of holding | −1.8% | −1.7% | 976,949 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-13 | GOLDSTEIN DOV A MD | director | Sale | 11,663 @ $20.54 | $240K | −32.4% of holding | −1.8% | −1.7% | 24,331 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-13 | GOLDSTEIN DOV A MD | director | Sale | 8,974 @ $18.43 | $165K | −18.2% of holding | −1.8% | −1.7% | 40,434 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-13 | GOLDSTEIN DOV A MD | director | Sale | 4,440 @ $19.45 | $86K | −11.0% of holding | −1.8% | −1.7% | 35,994 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-13 | GOLDSTEIN DOV A MD | director | Sale | 1,923 @ $21.08 | $41K | −7.9% of holding | −1.8% | −1.7% | 22,408 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | RUBIN PAUL D | officer | Sale | 7,433 @ $12.85 | $95K | −100.0% of holding | +54.3% | +80.2% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | RUBIN PAUL D | officer | Sale | 18,000 @ $12.00 | $216K | −100.0% of holding | +14.4% | +27.8% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-04 | RUBIN PAUL D | officer | Sale | 68,897 @ $10.19 | $702K | −100.0% of holding | +45.4% | +39.1% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-10-03 | Pande Vijay Satyanand | director | Purchase | 25,306 @ $19.90 | $504K | +2.3% of holding | +4.5% | −73.4% | 1,119,195 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-10-02 | Pande Vijay Satyanand | director | Purchase | 67,096 @ $19.73 | $1.3M | +6.5% of holding | +19.7% | −72.9% | 1,093,889 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-10-01 | Pande Vijay Satyanand | director | Purchase | 126,793 @ $19.73 | $2.5M | +14.1% of holding | +19.7% | −73.2% | 1,026,793 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-09-27 | Pande Vijay Satyanand | director | Purchase | 900,000 @ $18.00 | $16.2M | ownership Δ n/a | +13.4% | −82.8% | 900,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-09-27 | HEALY JAMES | director | Purchase | 588,888 @ $18.00 | $10.6M | +35.9% of holding | +13.4% | −82.8% | 2,227,124 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-09-27 | Cormorant Asset Management, LP | other | Purchase | 450,000 @ $18.00 | $8.1M | +38.2% of holding | +13.4% | −82.8% | 1,629,529 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-09-27 | ENRIGHT PATRICK G | director | Purchase | 400,000 @ $18.00 | $7.2M | +30.5% of holding | +13.4% | −82.8% | 1,710,589 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-09-27 | HEALY JAMES | director | Purchase | 26,497 @ $18.00 | $477K | ownership Δ n/a | +13.4% | −82.8% | 26,497 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-09-27 | HEALY JAMES | director | Purchase | 21,814 @ $18.00 | $393K | ownership Δ n/a | +13.4% | −82.8% | 21,814 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-09-27 | HEALY JAMES | director | Purchase | 18,353 @ $18.00 | $330K | ownership Δ n/a | +13.4% | −82.8% | 18,353 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-09-27 | HEALY JAMES | director | Purchase | 11,113 @ $18.00 | $200K | ownership Δ n/a | +13.4% | −82.8% | 11,113 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-09-27 | Barton Shane | officer | Purchase | 2,632 @ $18.00 | $47K | ownership Δ n/a | +13.4% | −82.8% | 2,632 | Form 4 · filed 164 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
115 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | Barton Shane | officer | Option exercise | 4,290 | 4,290 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Barton Shane | officer | Option exercise | 7,861 | 20,216 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Barton Shane | officer | Option exercise | 4,000 | 8,290 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Barton Shane | officer | Option exercise | 4,065 | 12,355 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Barton Shane | officer | Option exercise | 7,861 | 67,941 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Barton Shane | officer | Option exercise | 4,000 | 17,016 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Barton Shane | officer | Option exercise | 4,290 | 13,299 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Barton Shane | officer | Option exercise | 4,065 | 26,977 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Barton Shane | officer | Option exercise | 9,301 | 11,933 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Barton Shane | officer | Option exercise | 14,198 | 42,350 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Barton Shane | officer | Option exercise | 7,261 | 19,194 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Barton Shane | officer | Option exercise | 8,958 | 28,152 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Barton Shane | officer | Option exercise | 8,958 | 31,042 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Barton Shane | officer | Option exercise | 7,261 | 21,016 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Barton Shane | officer | Option exercise | 14,198 | 75,802 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Barton Shane | officer | Option exercise | 9,301 | 17,589 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Davidson Michael H. | director | Award / grant | 22,000 | 22,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | GARNIER JEAN PIERRE | director | Award / grant | 22,000 | 22,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | HEALY JAMES | director | Award / grant | 22,000 | 22,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | ENRIGHT PATRICK G | director | Award / grant | 22,000 | 22,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Hemrajani Rekha | director | Award / grant | 22,000 | 22,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Pande Vijay Satyanand | director | Award / grant | 22,000 | 22,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-23 | GOLDSTEIN DOV A MD | director | Option exercise | 3,542 | 36,575 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-23 | GOLDSTEIN DOV A MD | director | Option exercise | 3,542 | 155,833 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | RUBIN PAUL D | officer | Option exercise | 5,437 | 5,437 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | RUBIN PAUL D | officer | Option exercise | 3,383 | 8,820 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | RUBIN PAUL D | officer | Option exercise | 5,437 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | RUBIN PAUL D | officer | Option exercise | 3,383 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | RUBIN PAUL D | officer | Option exercise | 5,433 | 5,433 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | RUBIN PAUL D | officer | Option exercise | 2,000 | 7,433 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | RUBIN PAUL D | officer | Option exercise | 2,000 | 3,383 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | RUBIN PAUL D | officer | Option exercise | 5,433 | 5,437 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | GOLDSTEIN DOV A MD | director | Option exercise | 3,542 | 33,033 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | GOLDSTEIN DOV A MD | director | Option exercise | 3,542 | 159,375 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | RUBIN PAUL D | officer | Award / grant | 110,000 | 110,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Morgen Eric | director | Award / grant | 110,000 | 110,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Fortney Kristen | director | Award / grant | 330,000 | 330,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Morgen Eric | director | Award / grant | 12,500 | 12,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | GOLDSTEIN DOV A MD | director | Award / grant | 110,000 | 110,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Barton Shane | officer | Award / grant | 45,000 | 45,000 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.