BIIBBiogen Inc.Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Generalas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $216.01 · now $216.01 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BIIB has typically landed between $191.65 and $243.00 — a range of −11.3% to +12.5% from the issuance price $216.01.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($216.01) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where BIIB has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $216.01 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$191.65worst · -11.3%$243best · +12.5%
  • now $216.01 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $213.18 (-1.3%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $202.2–$224.16
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $191.65–$243
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2019-02-21−32.5%−32.5%+4.0%
2019-02-20−32.3%−32.3%+0.0%
2019-02-22−32.3%−33.4%+2.7%
3 best
2021-05-11+49.0%−4.0%+49.0%
2021-05-10+47.7%−3.1%+47.7%
2021-05-06+45.5%−1.8%+45.5%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$29.9B
market cap
$9.34
EPS (TTM)
21.6
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-29
next earnings
Revenue$9.8B
'20'25
Net income$1.3B
'20'25
Free cash flow$2.1B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr13.2%
'20'25
ROE · by yr7.1%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.38
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 54 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $216.01$119.85$658.51
  • DCF (intrinsic)$621.36
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 27.4× · n=54$256.29
  • Analyst target · range $157.00–$280.00$225.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$216.01

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
61%
+2.5%
n=18
Feb
42%
−0.7%
n=19
Mar
58%
+0.5%
n=19
Apr
32%
+0.5%
n=19
May
63%
+1.7%
n=19
Jun
53%
+0.7%
n=19
Jul
68%
+3.1%
n=19
Aug
53%
−1.1%
n=19
Sep
42%
+1.8%
n=19
Oct
33%
−1.1%
n=18
Nov
56%
+2.9%
n=18
Dec
44%
+1.1%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$225$1292026-08-04: 1 insider sale, $119K — Minor Lloyd2026-08-03: 1 insider sale, $121K — Minor Lloyd2026-02-12: 1 insider purchase, $585 — Murphy Nicole2026-02-09: 1 insider sale, $532K — Singhal Priya2026-02-02: 1 insider sale, $134K — Singhal Priya2025-09-02: 1 insider sale, $69K — Singhal Priya2025-09: 1 open-market sale, $69K2026-02: 1 open-market purchase, $5852026-02: 2 open-market sales, $666K2026-08: 2 open-market sales, $240K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Minor Lloyd — Sale on 2026-08-04, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Minor Lloyd — Sale on 2026-08-03, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Murphy Nicole — Purchase on 2026-02-12, filed 5 days after the tradeofficer Singhal Priya — Sale on 2026-02-09, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Singhal Priya — Sale on 2026-02-02, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Singhal Priya — Sale on 2025-09-02, filed same day
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-04Minor LloyddirectorSale593 @ $200.96$119K−18.1% of holding+7.6%not yet — horizon still open2,689Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-03Minor LloyddirectorSale593 @ $203.34$121K−15.3% of holding+6.5%not yet — horizon still open3,282Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-12Murphy NicoleofficerPurchase3 @ $195.03$585+0.0% of holding−4.5%−7.2%19,611Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-02-09Singhal PriyaofficerSale2,660 @ $199.83$532K−24.9% of holding+0.8%−6.4%8,043Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-02Singhal PriyaofficerSale748 @ $179.30$134K−10.7% of holding+7.5%+4.9%6,271Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-02Singhal PriyaofficerSale517 @ $133.55$69K−8.2% of holding+5.8%+28.4%5,772Form 4 · filed same day
2025-07-08Izzar RachidofficerSale2,223 @ $135.00$300K−26.0% of holding−5.8%+23.6%6,330Form 4 · filed 8 days after the trade
2025-05-19Singhal PriyaofficerSale3,806 @ $126.25$481K−41.2% of holding−2.7%+14.7%5,427Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-02DORSA CAROLINEdirectorPurchase1,235 @ $122.72$152K+4.6% of holding+1.6%+3.8%27,842Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-03-07SHERWIN STEPHEN AdirectorSale8,760 @ $150.02$1.3M−43.6% of holding−8.6%−19.3%11,318Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-12-09Singhal PriyaofficerSale110 @ $157.21$17K−2.0% of holding−1.2%−15.9%5,426Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

222 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-01Parini MichaelofficerAward / grant7,4057,405Form 4
2026-06-09Minor LloyddirectorAward / grant1,5053,875Form 4
2026-06-09Pangalos Menelas NdirectorOption exercise2,3702,370Form 4
2026-06-09Pangalos Menelas NdirectorAward / grant1,5053,875Form 4
2026-06-09Pangalos Menelas NdirectorOption exercise2,3700Form 4
2026-06-09Patolawala Monish DdirectorAward / grant1,5055,215Form 4
2026-06-09LANGER SUSANdirectorAward / grant1,5056,634Form 4
2026-06-09Mantas Jesus BdirectorAward / grant1,50511,263Form 4
2026-06-09Rowinsky Eric KdirectorAward / grant1,50525,844Form 4
2026-06-09SHERWIN STEPHEN AdirectorAward / grant1,50515,193Form 4
2026-06-09HAWKINS WILLIAM AdirectorAward / grant1,50510,365Form 4
2026-06-09Freire Maria CdirectorAward / grant2,0058,820Form 4
2026-05-01Keeney AdamofficerWithheld for tax4556,365Form 4
2026-05-01Keeney AdamofficerOption exercise9390Form 4
2026-05-01Keeney AdamofficerOption exercise9396,820Form 4
2026-04-01Godbout SeanofficerWithheld for tax541,342Form 4
2026-04-01Godbout SeanofficerOption exercise181364Form 4
2026-04-01Godbout SeanofficerOption exercise1811,396Form 4
2026-02-13Gregory GingerofficerAward / grant8,0258,025Form 4
2026-02-13ALEXANDER SUSAN HofficerAward / grant8,4508,450Form 4
2026-02-13Godbout SeanofficerAward / grant1,8001,800Form 4
2026-02-13Grogan JaneofficerAward / grant8,4508,450Form 4
2026-02-13Izzar RachidofficerAward / grant7,3907,390Form 4
2026-02-13Keeney AdamofficerAward / grant8,0258,025Form 4
2026-02-13Murphy NicoleofficerAward / grant10,56010,560Form 4
2026-02-13Kramer RobindirectorAward / grant8,4508,450Form 4
2026-02-13Singhal PriyaofficerAward / grant10,56010,560Form 4
2026-02-13Viehbacher ChristopherdirectorAward / grant38,01538,015Form 4
2026-02-06Viehbacher ChristopherdirectorWithheld for tax6,62429,924Form 4
2026-02-06Viehbacher ChristopherdirectorWithheld for tax4,35621,095Form 4
2026-02-06ALEXANDER SUSAN HofficerWithheld for tax1,51441,807Form 4
2026-02-06Singhal PriyaofficerWithheld for tax1,41210,703Form 4
2026-02-06Murphy NicoleofficerWithheld for tax1,40819,608Form 4
2026-02-06Gregory GingerofficerWithheld for tax1,13222,359Form 4
2026-02-06Kramer RobindirectorWithheld for tax1,06311,472Form 4
2026-02-06ALEXANDER SUSAN HofficerWithheld for tax1,05937,396Form 4
2026-02-06Singhal PriyaofficerWithheld for tax1,0567,432Form 4
2026-02-06Murphy NicoleofficerWithheld for tax1,01715,307Form 4
2026-02-06Keeney AdamofficerWithheld for tax9945,881Form 4
2026-02-06ALEXANDER SUSAN HofficerWithheld for tax93138,405Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Maria Elvira SalazarHousesale2026-07-072026-06-02$15–50K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2026-07-022026-06-05$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-27$1–15K
Maria Elvira SalazarHousepurchase2026-06-082026-05-11$1–15K
Maria Elvira SalazarHousepurchase2026-06-082026-05-11$50–100K
Maria Elvira SalazarHousepurchase2026-06-082026-05-12$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-03-092026-02-06$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2026-02-132026-01-30$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-29$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-09-092025-08-26$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-09-092025-08-26$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.