Issued 2026-09-25 at $12.99 · now $12.99 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, BHVN has typically landed between $9.67 and $18.03 — a range of −25.5% to +38.8% from the issuance price $12.99.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
984 overlapping 1 month windows · 2022-09-23 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($12.99) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where BHVN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $12.99 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $12.99 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $13.11 (+1.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $11.37–$14.86
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $9.67–$18.03
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-10-15 | −53.5% | −55.1% | +4.3% |
| 2025-10-14 | −52.3% | −53.2% | +8.7% |
| 2025-10-09 | −52.1% | −52.1% | +5.1% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2022-09-30 | +163.0% | +0.0% | +163.0% |
| 2022-10-03 | +139.4% | +0.0% | +139.4% |
| 2022-09-29 | +126.8% | −6.8% | +126.8% |
984 overlapping windows · 2022-09-23 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- October 2026 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2/Phase PHASE3 primary completion: Study to Determine if BHV-7000 is Effective and Safe in Adults With Refractory Focal Onset Epilepsy (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- December 2026 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: Long-term Safety and Tolerability of BHV-7000 (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- December 2026 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2/Phase PHASE3 primary completion: A Study to Determine if BHV-7000 is Effective and Safe in Adults With Refractory Focal Onset Epilepsy (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- August 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2/Phase PHASE3 primary completion: A Study to Determine if BHV-8000 is Effective, Safe and Tolerable as a Treatment for Adults Living With Early Parkinson's Disease (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- January 2028 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Study to Determine if BHV-1300 is Effective and Safe in Adults With Graves' Disease (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- February 2028 — Trial primary completion: Phase 1/Phase PHASE2 primary completion: A Phase 1/2 Study of BHV-1510 (Previously PBI-410) in Advanced Solid Tumors (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~4 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-17 | Clark George C. | officer | Purchase | 17,000 @ $8.52 | $145K | +566.7% of holding | +30.6% | −5.0% | 20,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | CHILDS JOHN W | director | Purchase | 3,333,333 @ $7.50 | $25.0M | +143.6% of holding | +38.3% | −5.5% | 5,653,904 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | Bailey Gregory | director | Purchase | 400,000 @ $7.50 | $3.0M | +24.7% of holding | +38.3% | −5.5% | 2,020,071 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | Coric Vlad | director | Purchase | 333,333 @ $7.50 | $2.5M | +38.7% of holding | +38.3% | −5.5% | 1,195,275 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | Coric Vlad | director | Purchase | 333,333 @ $7.50 | $2.5M | +81.9% of holding | +38.3% | −5.5% | 740,546 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-04 | CHILDS JOHN W | director | Purchase | 25,000 @ $30.39 | $760K | +1.1% of holding | −22.7% | −60.6% | 2,320,571 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-04 | CHILDS JOHN W | director | Purchase | 3,400 @ $30.73 | $104K | +4.6% of holding | −22.7% | −60.6% | 76,570 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-04 | CHILDS JOHN W | director | Purchase | 3,400 @ $30.73 | $104K | +16.2% of holding | −22.7% | −60.6% | 24,452 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-04 | CHILDS JOHN W | director | Purchase | 900 @ $30.73 | $28K | +3.7% of holding | −22.7% | −60.6% | 25,291 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-30 | CHILDS JOHN W | director | Purchase | 29,000 @ $35.94 | $1.0M | +1.2% of holding | +4.6% | −66.1% | 2,368,741 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-10-02 | Coric Vlad | director | Purchase | 21,052 @ $47.50 | $1000K | +2.5% of holding | +3.7% | −50.7% | 861,942 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-10-02 | CHILDS JOHN W | director | Purchase | 21,052 @ $47.50 | $1000K | ownership Δ n/a | +3.7% | −50.7% | 21,052 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-09-24 | Bailey Gregory | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $44.19 | $221K | +0.3% of holding | +15.9% | −36.9% | 1,620,071 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-07-18 | CHILDS JOHN W | director | Purchase | 28,400 @ $35.67 | $1.0M | +1.2% of holding | +10.9% | −0.5% | 2,339,741 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-06-17 | Car Bruce | officer | Purchase | 30,000 @ $33.58 | $1.0M | ownership Δ n/a | +3.9% | +14.0% | 30,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2024-05-30 | CHILDS JOHN W | director | Purchase | 28,000 @ $35.58 | $996K | +1.2% of holding | −4.5% | +16.3% | 2,311,341 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-05-13 | CHILDS JOHN W | director | Purchase | 28,500 @ $35.17 | $1.0M | +1.3% of holding | −4.0% | +39.5% | 2,283,341 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-05-13 | Bailey Gregory | director | Purchase | 15,000 @ $34.19 | $513K | +0.9% of holding | −4.0% | +39.5% | 1,615,071 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-04-24 | Bailey Gregory | director | Purchase | 25,503 @ $39.18 | $999K | +1.6% of holding | −9.8% | +21.2% | 1,600,071 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-04-22 | Coric Vlad | director | Purchase | 121,951 @ $41.00 | $5.0M | +7.3% of holding | −5.3% | +16.4% | 1,788,417 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-04-22 | CHILDS JOHN W | director | Purchase | 97,560 @ $41.00 | $4.0M | +2.4% of holding | −5.3% | +16.4% | 4,096,512 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-04-22 | CHILDS JOHN W | director | Purchase | 73,170 @ $41.00 | $3.0M | +3.4% of holding | −5.3% | +16.4% | 2,254,841 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-04-22 | Bailey Gregory | director | Purchase | 48,780 @ $41.00 | $2.0M | +3.2% of holding | −5.3% | +16.4% | 1,574,568 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-04-22 | CHILDS JOHN W | director | Purchase | 24,391 @ $41.00 | $1.0M | ownership Δ n/a | −5.3% | +16.4% | 24,391 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
77 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Gentile Kimberly | officer | Award / grant | 1,000 | 1,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | Antonijevic Irina | director | Award / grant | 68,693 | 68,693 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | Mehta Kishan | director | Award / grant | 68,693 | 68,693 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | GREGORY JULIA P | director | Award / grant | 68,693 | 68,693 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | Bailey Gregory | director | Award / grant | 68,693 | 68,693 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | Heffernan Michael Thomas | director | Award / grant | 68,693 | 68,693 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | HUGIN ROBERT J | director | Award / grant | 68,693 | 68,693 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | CHILDS JOHN W | director | Award / grant | 68,693 | 68,693 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-17 | Mehta Kishan | director | Gift | 17,342 | 5,320 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-17 | Mehta Kishan | director | Gift | 17,342 | 17,342 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Buten Matthew | officer | Award / grant | 175,000 | 175,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Coric Vlad | director | Award / grant | 550,000 | 550,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Gentile Kimberly | officer | Award / grant | 175,000 | 175,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Car Bruce | officer | Award / grant | 175,000 | 175,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Clark George C. | officer | Award / grant | 50,000 | 50,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Coric Vlad | director | Withheld for tax | 7,430 | 1,803,968 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Buten Matthew | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,594 | 195,652 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Car Bruce | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,381 | 7,715 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Gentile Kimberly | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,956 | 99,557 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Clark George C. | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,117 | 66,978 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Clark George C. | officer | Option exercise | 2,500 | 68,095 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Buten Matthew | officer | Option exercise | 4,250 | 198,246 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Coric Vlad | director | Option exercise | 14,250 | 1,811,398 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Coric Vlad | director | Option exercise | 14,250 | 28,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Car Bruce | officer | Option exercise | 4,750 | 10,096 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Car Bruce | officer | Option exercise | 4,750 | 9,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Gentile Kimberly | officer | Option exercise | 3,750 | 101,513 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Gentile Kimberly | officer | Option exercise | 3,750 | 7,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Clark George C. | officer | Option exercise | 2,500 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Buten Matthew | officer | Option exercise | 4,250 | 8,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-05 | Antonijevic Irina | director | Award / grant | 31,716 | 31,716 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-05 | Bailey Gregory | director | Award / grant | 31,716 | 31,716 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-05 | GREGORY JULIA P | director | Award / grant | 31,716 | 31,716 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-05 | Mehta Kishan | director | Award / grant | 31,716 | 31,716 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-05 | CHILDS JOHN W | director | Award / grant | 31,716 | 31,716 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-05 | HUGIN ROBERT J | director | Award / grant | 31,716 | 31,716 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-05 | Heffernan Michael Thomas | director | Award / grant | 31,716 | 31,716 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-05 | Coric Vlad | director | Withheld for tax | 6,805 | 1,796,604 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-05 | Buten Matthew | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,561 | 193,452 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-05 | Car Bruce | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,331 | 4,802 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.