BHRBBurke & Herbert Financial Services Corp.Financial Services · Banks - Regionalas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $70.58 · now $70.58 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BHRB has typically landed between $62.78 and $81.27 — a range of −11.1% to +15.2% from the issuance price $70.58.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,002 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($70.58) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where BHRB has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $70.58 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$62.78worst · -11.1%$81.27best · +15.2%
  • now $70.58 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $70.79 (+0.3%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $67.31–$74.27
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $62.78–$81.27
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,002 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2023-06-13−36.8%−36.8%+0.6%
2023-06-14−36.6%−37.2%+0.0%
2023-06-20−36.3%−36.3%+0.0%
3 best
2012-11-12+68.0%+0.0%+68.0%
2012-11-09+67.5%−0.3%+67.5%
2012-11-08+67.5%−0.3%+67.5%

5,002 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
−0.7%
n=20
Feb
60%
+2.9%
n=20
Mar
55%
+0.0%
n=20
Apr
50%
−0.2%
n=20
May
50%
−0.1%
n=20
Jun
55%
+0.9%
n=20
Jul
40%
+0.3%
n=20
Aug
60%
+1.1%
n=20
Sep
50%
−0.1%
n=20
Oct
40%
−0.5%
n=20
Nov
80%
+9.8%
n=20
Dec
50%
+2.7%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$75$562026-08-20: 1 insider purchase, $2K — WILSON DAVID2026-08-14: 2 insider sales, $229K — Geary James P II …2026-08-12: 1 insider purchase, $88K — Poillon Diane2026-08-11: 1 insider sale, $110K — Burke James Mason2026-08-06: 1 insider purchase, $73K — McLaughlin Shawn Patrick2026-08-04: 1 insider purchase, $3K — WILSON DAVID2026-08-03: 3 insider sales, $380K — Geary James P II, George Georgette R., Bonnafe Katherine Diane2026-07-31: 1 insider purchase, $7K — WILSON DAVID2026-06-03: 1 insider purchase, $314K — Barnwell Julian Forrest Jr.2026-05-20: 1 insider sale, $70K — Upson Jill S2026-05-12: 2 insider purchases, $81K — Riojas Jose David …2026-05-11: 1 insider purchase, $315K — Barnwell Julian Forrest Jr.2026-04-29: 1 insider purchase, $64K — McLaughlin Shawn Patrick2026-04-28: 1 insider purchase, $65K — McLaughlin Shawn Patrick2025-10-28: 1 insider purchase, $61K — McLaughlin Shawn Patrick2025-09-15: 2 insider purchases, $105K — HINKLE GARY L …2025-09: 2 open-market purchases, $105K2025-10: 1 open-market purchase, $61K2026-04: 2 open-market purchases, $128K2026-05: 3 open-market purchases, $396K2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $70K2026-06: 1 open-market purchase, $314K2026-07: 1 open-market purchase, $7K2026-08: 4 open-market purchases, $167K2026-08: 6 open-market sales, $719K↑ buys↓ salesdirector WILSON DAVID — Purchase on 2026-08-20, filed same daydirector Geary James P II — Sale on 2026-08-14, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Geary James P II — Sale on 2026-08-14, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Poillon Diane — Purchase on 2026-08-12, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Burke James Mason — Sale on 2026-08-11, filed 1 day after the tradedirector McLaughlin Shawn Patrick — Purchase on 2026-08-06, filed same daydirector WILSON DAVID — Purchase on 2026-08-04, filed same daydirector Geary James P II — Sale on 2026-08-03, filed 2 days after the tradedirector George Georgette R. — Sale on 2026-08-03, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Bonnafe Katherine Diane — Sale on 2026-08-03, filed 2 days after the tradedirector WILSON DAVID — Purchase on 2026-07-31, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Barnwell Julian Forrest Jr. — Purchase on 2026-06-03, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Upson Jill S — Sale on 2026-05-20, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Riojas Jose David — Purchase on 2026-05-12, filed same daydirector Riojas Jose David — Purchase on 2026-05-12, filed same daydirector Barnwell Julian Forrest Jr. — Purchase on 2026-05-11, filed 1 day after the tradedirector McLaughlin Shawn Patrick — Purchase on 2026-04-29, filed same daydirector McLaughlin Shawn Patrick — Purchase on 2026-04-28, filed same daydirector McLaughlin Shawn Patrick — Purchase on 2025-10-28, filed same daydirector HINKLE GARY L — Purchase on 2025-09-15, filed same daydirector HINKLE GARY L — Purchase on 2025-09-15, filed same day
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-20WILSON DAVIDdirectorPurchase35 @ $70.57$2K+8.8% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open435Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-14Geary James P IIdirectorSale2,887 @ $72.82$210K−23.4% of holding+0.2%not yet — horizon still open9,457Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-14Geary James P IIdirectorSale263 @ $72.91$19K−2.1% of holding+0.2%not yet — horizon still open12,344Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-12Poillon DianedirectorPurchase1,200 @ $73.67$88K+41.0% of holding−2.1%not yet — horizon still open4,128Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-11Burke James MasondirectorSale1,500 @ $73.03$110K−0.6% of holding−1.2%not yet — horizon still open258,480Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-06McLaughlin Shawn PatrickdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $73.25$73K+1.4% of holding−2.1%not yet — horizon still open71,000Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-04WILSON DAVIDdirectorPurchase34 @ $73.69$3K+17.2% of holding−2.4%not yet — horizon still open232Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-03Geary James P IIdirectorSale3,150 @ $73.93$233K−25.0% of holding−4.6%not yet — horizon still open9,457Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-03George Georgette R.directorSale1,000 @ $73.67$74K−2.5% of holding−4.6%not yet — horizon still open38,321Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-03Bonnafe Katherine DianedirectorSale1,000 @ $73.65$74K−10.9% of holding−4.6%not yet — horizon still open8,200Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-31WILSON DAVIDdirectorPurchase100 @ $73.68$7K+0.4% of holding−5.3%not yet — horizon still open23,448Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-03Barnwell Julian Forrest Jr.directorPurchase5,000 @ $62.76$314K+23.2% of holding+12.4%not yet — horizon still open26,580Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-20Upson Jill SdirectorSale1,112 @ $63.30$70K−35.7% of holding+2.9%not yet — horizon still open2,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-12Riojas Jose DaviddirectorPurchase1,000 @ $62.00$62K+5.3% of holding+7.4%not yet — horizon still open20,000Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-12Riojas Jose DaviddirectorPurchase300 @ $62.00$19K+2.7% of holding+7.4%not yet — horizon still open11,500Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-11Barnwell Julian Forrest Jr.directorPurchase5,000 @ $63.05$315K+2.5% of holding+7.6%not yet — horizon still open208,939Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-29McLaughlin Shawn PatrickdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $63.55$64K+1.5% of holding−5.4%not yet — horizon still open69,000Form 4 · filed same day
2026-04-28McLaughlin Shawn PatrickdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $64.80$65K+1.5% of holding−6.9%not yet — horizon still open68,000Form 4 · filed same day
2025-10-28McLaughlin Shawn PatrickdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $61.00$61K+1.5% of holding+8.1%+1.6%67,000Form 4 · filed same day
2025-09-15HINKLE GARY LdirectorPurchase1,600 @ $61.70$99K+0.6% of holding−1.4%+0.4%250,159Form 4 · filed same day
2025-09-15HINKLE GARY LdirectorPurchase100 @ $61.50$6K+0.0% of holding−1.4%+0.4%248,559Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-05Riojas Jose DaviddirectorPurchase500 @ $55.85$28K+2.7% of holding+8.3%+5.4%19,000Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-02Anderson Mark GuthriedirectorPurchase1,500 @ $56.32$84K+5.7% of holding+7.0%+3.0%27,700Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-02Anderson Mark GuthriedirectorPurchase500 @ $56.62$28K+1.9% of holding+7.0%+3.0%26,200Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-29McLaughlin Shawn PatrickdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $56.25$56K+1.5% of holding−0.4%−0.0%66,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-23Hinson Samuel Laing IIIdirectorPurchase4,802 @ $55.00$264K+16.7% of holding−0.8%+2.0%33,602Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-19Anderson Mark GuthriedirectorPurchase2,300 @ $57.25$132K+10.3% of holding−2.7%−7.2%24,700Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-07McLaughlin Shawn PatrickdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $56.50$57K+1.6% of holding−3.7%−11.1%64,000Form 4 · filed same day
2025-04-30PICCIRILLO CHARLESdirectorPurchase500 @ $54.45$27K+2.7% of holding−3.5%−15.0%19,320Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-29Hinson Samuel Laing IIIdirectorPurchase4,000 @ $53.00$212K+16.1% of holding−2.7%−12.3%28,800Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-29Anderson Mark GuthriedirectorPurchase3,000 @ $52.99$159K+15.5% of holding−2.7%−12.3%22,400Form 4 · filed same day
2025-04-29Riojas Jose DaviddirectorPurchase500 @ $55.00$28K+2.8% of holding−2.7%−12.3%18,500Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-21Huffman Patrick KipofficerPurchase1,000 @ $0.00$0ownership Δ n/a+3.1%−6.4%1,000Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-03-17Hintelmann Robert Victor Jr.officerPurchase3,500 @ $0.00$0ownership Δ n/a−10.0%−11.0%3,500Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-13Barnwell Julian Forrest Jr.directorPurchase1,140 @ $58.38$67K+1.3% of holding−13.5%−12.1%91,361Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-11Riojas Jose DaviddirectorPurchase500 @ $58.00$29K+2.9% of holding−8.2%−8.5%18,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-11Riojas Jose DaviddirectorPurchase100 @ $58.00$6K+1.0% of holding−8.2%−8.5%10,200Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-10Barnwell Julian Forrest Jr.directorPurchase1,000 @ $58.80$59K+1.2% of holding−3.1%−7.2%84,083Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-07Barnwell Julian Forrest Jr.directorPurchase1,000 @ $59.75$60K+1.2% of holding−5.5%−7.0%83,083Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-03-06Riojas Jose DaviddirectorPurchase500 @ $60.20$30K+2.9% of holding−4.8%−7.1%17,500Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-06Riojas Jose DaviddirectorPurchase100 @ $60.20$6K+1.0% of holding−4.8%−7.1%10,100Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-05Barnwell Julian Forrest Jr.directorPurchase2,000 @ $60.50$121K+1.0% of holding−7.1%−5.4%203,939Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-04Barnwell Julian Forrest Jr.directorPurchase2,000 @ $62.00$124K+1.0% of holding−6.4%−7.3%199,939Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-04Barnwell Julian Forrest Jr.directorPurchase2,000 @ $61.75$124K+1.0% of holding−6.4%−7.3%201,939Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-26Barnwell Julian Forrest Jr.directorPurchase2,000 @ $61.75$124K+1.0% of holding−3.7%−4.9%197,939Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-24Barnwell Julian Forrest Jr.directorPurchase4,000 @ $62.40$250K+2.1% of holding−3.6%−5.6%195,939Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-24Barnwell Julian Forrest Jr.directorPurchase2,000 @ $62.25$125K+1.1% of holding−3.6%−5.6%191,939Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-24McLaughlin Shawn PatrickdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $62.35$62K+1.6% of holding−3.6%−5.6%63,000Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-21Barnwell Julian Forrest Jr.directorPurchase2,000 @ $62.50$125K+1.1% of holding−1.9%−4.1%189,939Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-13Barnwell Julian Forrest Jr.directorPurchase5,000 @ $63.75$319K+2.7% of holding−0.7%−11.0%187,939Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-10HINKLE GARY LdirectorPurchase3,000 @ $64.97$195K+1.2% of holding−0.2%−11.8%248,459Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-05HINKLE GARY LdirectorPurchase1,104 @ $64.43$71K+0.5% of holding−1.3%−16.4%245,459Form 4 · filed same day
2025-01-31HINKLE GARY LdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $64.48$64K+0.4% of holding+0.3%−14.9%244,355Form 4 · filed same day
2025-01-29McLaughlin Shawn PatrickdirectorPurchase500 @ $63.25$32K+0.8% of holding+0.1%−12.9%61,500Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-29McLaughlin Shawn PatrickdirectorPurchase500 @ $62.75$31K+0.8% of holding+0.1%−12.9%62,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-13HINKLE GARY LdirectorPurchase4,890 @ $69.14$338K+2.1% of holding−9.7%−16.7%243,245Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-12-13Barnwell Julian Forrest Jr.directorPurchase3,000 @ $68.75$206K+1.7% of holding−9.7%−16.7%182,939Form 4 · filed same day
2024-12-13HINKLE GARY LdirectorPurchase110 @ $69.65$8K+0.0% of holding−9.7%−16.7%243,355Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-12-09McLaughlin Shawn PatrickdirectorPurchase555 @ $69.35$38K+0.9% of holding−15.4%−14.9%61,000Form 4 · filed same day
2024-12-05McLaughlin Shawn PatrickdirectorPurchase195 @ $69.50$14K+0.3% of holding−13.4%−14.3%60,445Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

187 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-21George Georgette R.directorCode W9,8589,858Form 4
2026-08-04Barnwell Julian Forrest Jr.directorOther acquisition91,3610Form 4
2026-08-04Barnwell Julian Forrest Jr.directorOther acquisition91,36191,361Form 4
2026-07-31WILSON DAVIDdirectorGift10023,348Form 4
2026-07-30TISSUE ROBERT SofficerWithheld for tax12,91458,064Form 4
2026-07-30TISSUE ROBERT SofficerOption exercise8,43670,978Form 4
2026-07-30TISSUE ROBERT SofficerOption exercise8,68462,542Form 4
2026-07-30TISSUE ROBERT SofficerOption exercise8,4360Form 4
2026-07-30TISSUE ROBERT SofficerOption exercise8,6840Form 4
2026-07-29Freeman Danyl RofficerWithheld for tax2,0024,685Form 4
2026-07-29Freeman Danyl RofficerOption exercise2,8366,687Form 4
2026-07-29Freeman Danyl RofficerOption exercise2,8360Form 4
2026-07-28BOYLE DAVID PdirectorGift1,75265,184Form 4
2026-07-17TISSUE ROBERT SofficerWithheld for tax9,77753,858Form 4
2026-07-17TISSUE ROBERT SofficerOption exercise8,59959,525Form 4
2026-07-17TISSUE ROBERT SofficerOption exercise4,11063,635Form 4
2026-07-17TISSUE ROBERT SofficerOption exercise4,1100Form 4
2026-07-17TISSUE ROBERT SofficerOption exercise8,5990Form 4
2026-07-16Ritchie Bradford EofficerWithheld for tax2,22223,605Form 4
2026-07-16Ritchie Bradford EofficerOption exercise2,74925,827Form 4
2026-07-16Ritchie Bradford EofficerOption exercise2,7490Form 4
2026-07-01Zirk Angela RofficerWithheld for tax1,0513,287Form 4
2026-07-01Zirk Angela RofficerOption exercise1,4684,338Form 4
2026-07-01Zirk Angela RofficerOption exercise1,4681,101Form 4
2026-06-29MADDY H CHARLES IIIdirectorWithheld for tax18,35451,012Form 4
2026-06-29MADDY H CHARLES IIIdirectorOption exercise14,82369,366Form 4
2026-06-29MADDY H CHARLES IIIdirectorOption exercise7,90154,543Form 4
2026-06-29MADDY H CHARLES IIIdirectorOption exercise14,8230Form 4
2026-06-29MADDY H CHARLES IIIdirectorOption exercise7,9010Form 4
2026-06-25MADDY H CHARLES IIIdirectorWithheld for tax12,38046,642Form 4
2026-06-25MADDY H CHARLES IIIdirectorOption exercise15,93459,022Form 4
2026-06-25MADDY H CHARLES IIIdirectorOption exercise15,9340Form 4
2026-06-19George Georgette R.directorAward / grant1,00022,971Form 4
2026-06-19Snyder KristendirectorAward / grant1,0009,418Form 4
2026-06-19Poillon DianedirectorAward / grant1,0002,928Form 4
2026-06-19Riojas Jose DaviddirectorAward / grant1,00012,500Form 4
2026-06-19Burke James MasondirectorAward / grant1,0009,480Form 4
2026-06-19McLaughlin Shawn PatrickdirectorAward / grant1,00070,000Form 4
2026-06-19Hinson Samuel Laing IIIdirectorAward / grant1,00028,560Form 4
2026-06-19Anderson Mark GuthriedirectorAward / grant1,00028,700Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.