BHFBrighthouse Financial, Inc.as of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $48.79 · now $48.79 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BHF has typically landed between $40.90 and $57.14 — a range of −16.2% to +17.1% from the issuance price $48.79.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

2,272 overlapping 1 month windows · 2017-07-17 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($48.79) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where BHF has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $48.79 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$40.9worst · -16.2%$57.14best · +17.1%
  • now $48.79 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $48.6 (-0.4%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $45.45–$51.76
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $40.9–$57.14
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,272 windows spanning 2017-07-17 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-20−65.9%−65.9%+0.0%
2020-02-18−64.5%−64.5%+0.7%
2020-02-21−63.8%−65.0%+0.0%
3 best
2020-05-06+47.6%+0.0%+47.6%
2020-04-21+46.9%+0.0%+48.8%
2025-10-16+45.7%+0.0%+46.2%

2,272 overlapping windows · 2017-07-17 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~10 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
56%
+7.7%
n=9
Feb
33%
−3.2%
n=9
Mar
22%
−5.5%
n=9
Apr
67%
+2.6%
n=9
May
44%
−2.3%
n=9
Jun
33%
−3.9%
n=9
Jul
67%
+3.5%
n=9
Aug
30%
−2.7%
n=10
Sep
40%
+0.1%
n=10
Oct
67%
+6.2%
n=9
Nov
67%
+5.1%
n=9
Dec
33%
−3.9%
n=9

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$67$43↑ buys↓ sales
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2025-06-03Lambert MylesofficerSale7,091 @ $58.58$415K−19.8% of holding−15.0%−4.1%28,686Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-03Lambert MylesofficerSale1,309 @ $59.10$77K−4.6% of holding−15.0%−4.1%27,377Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-02Huss VondaofficerSale3,000 @ $59.51$179K−14.0% of holding−14.0%−4.5%18,441Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-27Steigerwalt Eric TdirectorSale25,000 @ $58.84$1.5M−7.5% of holding−15.2%−6.0%307,236Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-03Lambert MylesofficerSale8,180 @ $59.91$490K−18.5% of holding+3.8%−30.9%35,997Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-03Huss VondaofficerSale3,000 @ $59.33$178K−12.3% of holding+3.8%−30.9%21,441Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-03Lambert MylesofficerSale220 @ $60.33$13K−0.6% of holding+3.8%−30.9%35,777Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-26Steigerwalt Eric TdirectorSale13,327 @ $59.68$795K−4.7% of holding+5.5%−29.0%271,072Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-26Steigerwalt Eric TdirectorSale11,673 @ $58.46$682K−3.9% of holding+5.5%−29.0%284,399Form 4 · filed same day
2025-01-31Rosenthal JohnofficerSale10,000 @ $61.00$610K−13.1% of holding−6.8%−29.4%66,262Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

194 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-02Zlatkus Lizabeth HdirectorOption exercise2,8377,234Form 4
2026-06-02Offereins Diane EdirectorOption exercise2,8370Form 4
2026-06-02Zlatkus Lizabeth HdirectorOption exercise2,8370Form 4
2026-06-02Zlatkus Lizabeth HdirectorAward / grant2,6512,651Form 4
2026-06-02CHAPLIN C EDWARDdirectorOption exercise4,55654,454Form 4
2026-06-02CHAPLIN C EDWARDdirectorOption exercise4,5560Form 4
2026-06-02CHAPLIN C EDWARDdirectorAward / grant4,2574,257Form 4
2026-06-02Offereins Diane EdirectorAward / grant2,6512,651Form 4
2026-06-02MALLESCH EILEEN AdirectorOption exercise2,8370Form 4
2026-06-02MALLESCH EILEEN AdirectorOption exercise2,83720,820Form 4
2026-06-02MALLESCH EILEEN AdirectorAward / grant2,6512,651Form 4
2026-06-02Inserra Michael J.directorOption exercise1,4189,116Form 4
2026-06-02Inserra Michael J.directorOption exercise1,4180Form 4
2026-06-02Inserra Michael J.directorOption exercise1,4190Form 4
2026-06-02Inserra Michael J.directorOption exercise1,4193,618Form 4
2026-06-02Inserra Michael J.directorAward / grant2,6512,651Form 4
2026-06-02Offereins Diane EdirectorOption exercise2,83728,634Form 4
2026-06-02Hooley Stephen CdirectorOption exercise2,8370Form 4
2026-06-02Hooley Stephen CdirectorOption exercise2,83720,716Form 4
2026-06-02Hooley Stephen CdirectorAward / grant2,6512,651Form 4
2026-06-02Juel CaroldirectorOption exercise2,8370Form 4
2026-06-02Juel CaroldirectorOption exercise2,83710,390Form 4
2026-06-02Juel CaroldirectorAward / grant2,6512,651Form 4
2026-06-02Wetzel Paul M.directorOption exercise2,83723,663Form 4
2026-06-02Wetzel Paul M.directorOption exercise2,8370Form 4
2026-06-02Wetzel Paul M.directorAward / grant2,6512,651Form 4
2026-05-01Juel CaroldirectorOption exercise3,3615,157Form 4
2026-05-01Wetzel Paul M.directorOption exercise1,12017,123Form 4
2026-05-01Juel CaroldirectorOption exercise3,3617,553Form 4
2026-05-01Wetzel Paul M.directorOption exercise3,70320,826Form 4
2026-05-01Wetzel Paul M.directorOption exercise1,1208,674Form 4
2026-05-01Wetzel Paul M.directorOption exercise3,7034,971Form 4
2026-04-08Pavlovich Melissa B.officerWithheld for tax1,58812,644Form 4
2026-04-08Pavlovich Melissa B.officerOption exercise5,5810Form 4
2026-04-08Pavlovich Melissa B.officerOption exercise5,58114,232Form 4
2026-04-08Pavlovich Melissa B.officerOption exercise5,58114,232Form 4
2026-03-02Steigerwalt Eric TdirectorWithheld for tax13,996374,641Form 4
2026-03-02Spehar Edward A.officerWithheld for tax6,49664,413Form 4
2026-03-02Rosenthal JohnofficerWithheld for tax5,49891,380Form 4
2026-03-02Lambert MylesofficerWithheld for tax4,84349,788Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Jonathan JacksonHousesale2023-05-122023-04-14$15–50K
Jonathan JacksonHousepurchase2023-05-122023-02-28$15–50K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2020-04-162020-03-18$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2020-02-102020-01-08$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2019-04-112019-03-26$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2019-03-082019-02-20$1–15K
Dean PhillipsHousesale2019-02-182019-01-04$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2018-11-092018-10-25$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2018-09-122018-08-28$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2017-12-212017-11-24$15–50K
David E. PriceHousesale2017-12-082017-11-24$1–15K
David E. PriceHouseexchange2017-10-172017-08-10$1–15K
K. Michael ConawayHousesale2017-10-042017-08-09$1–15K
K. Michael ConawayHousesale2017-10-042017-08-08$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.