BHC · TickerCove

BHCBausch Health Companies Inc.Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Genericas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $5.69 · now $5.69 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BHC has typically landed between $4.35 and $7.23 — a range of −23.5% to +27.0% from the issuance price $5.69.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($5.69) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$5.69 · 36% of range

$4.43 low$7.9 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−1.9%

typical move · IQR 20.7%

−23.5%worst (p90)+27.0%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where BHC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $5.69 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $5.69 (+0.0%)
typical $5.58 (-1.9%)
middle 50% $4.99–$6.17
90% range $4.35–$7.23

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2016-02-18	−71.3%	−71.3%	+0.0%
2016-02-17	−68.6%	−68.6%	+0.0%
2016-02-25	−65.9%	−68.2%	+0.0%
3 best
2015-11-16	+61.6%	−4.1%	+61.6%
2025-06-02	+58.9%	+0.0%	+58.9%
2015-11-17	+58.4%	+0.0%	+68.5%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

55%

+4.8%

n=20

Feb

70%

+3.1%

n=20

Mar

50%

−5.2%

n=20

Apr

70%

+1.1%

n=20

May

45%

−1.4%

n=20

Jun

40%

+2.8%

n=20

Jul

45%

+0.4%

n=20

Aug

40%

+0.9%

n=20

Sep

50%

+1.4%

n=20

Oct

60%

−3.6%

n=20

Nov

55%

+3.3%

n=20

Dec

65%

+4.5%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-19	Lenar Aimee J.	officer	Sale	36,827 @ $7.03	$259K	−9.9% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	334,853	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-19	Lee Frank D.	director	Sale	24,456 @ $5.43	$133K	−33.1% of holding	−12.4%	not yet — horizon still open	49,339	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-03	Carson Seana	officer	Sale	4,420 @ $5.77	$26K	−0.7% of holding	+0.8%	+0.3%	616,761	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-02	Carson Seana	officer	Sale	6,856 @ $5.78	$40K	−0.9% of holding	−4.3%	−5.3%	776,076	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-27	Carson Seana	officer	Sale	8,388 @ $5.95	$50K	−1.0% of holding	−7.6%	−6.2%	809,258	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-25	PAULSON & CO. INC.	other	Purchase	2,500,000 @ $6.25	$15.6M	+3.5% of holding	+11.4%	−27.9%	73,255,869	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-09-08	Carson Seana	officer	Sale	13,370 @ $7.31	$98K	−2.6% of holding	−16.2%	−31.3%	499,585	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-21	Lee Frank D.	director	Sale	15,912 @ $7.66	$122K	−17.7% of holding	−14.4%	−28.3%	73,795	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-14	Paulson John	director	Purchase	34,721,118 @ $9.00	$312.5M	+96.4% of holding	−6.9%	−26.6%	70,755,869	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-13	Paulson John	director	Purchase	86,409 @ $7.06	$610K	+0.2% of holding	−0.7%	−24.8%	36,034,751	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-12	Paulson John	director	Purchase	1,156,640 @ $6.88	$8.0M	+3.3% of holding	+1.2%	−21.4%	35,948,342	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-11	Paulson John	director	Purchase	2,000,000 @ $6.35	$12.7M	+6.1% of holding	+4.8%	−17.0%	34,791,702	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-13	Paulson John	director	Purchase	3,564,059 @ $5.94	$21.2M	+12.2% of holding	+2.8%	+0.9%	32,791,702	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-12	Paulson John	director	Purchase	1,005,376 @ $5.47	$5.5M	+3.6% of holding	+13.2%	+12.4%	29,227,643	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-11	Paulson John	director	Purchase	1,029,098 @ $5.24	$5.4M	+3.8% of holding	+14.7%	+13.0%	28,222,267	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-10	Paulson John	director	Purchase	754,134 @ $5.05	$3.8M	+2.9% of holding	+22.2%	+19.4%	27,193,169	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

79 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-07-17	Lenar Aimee J.	officer	Withheld for tax	5,260	371,680	Form 4
2026-07-15	Lenar Aimee J.	officer	Withheld for tax	23,395	376,940	Form 4
2026-07-14	LEE STEVEN HYOSIG	officer	Withheld for tax	3,125	70,114	Form 4
2026-06-30	Paulson John	director	Award / grant	12,677	430,242	Form 4
2026-06-30	LEUNG SANDRA	director	Award / grant	6,845	97,070	Form 4
2026-06-30	WECHSLER AMY B	director	Award / grant	1,394	314,979	Form 4
2026-05-22	POWER ROBERT N	director	Award / grant	45,871	300,594	Form 4
2026-05-22	WECHSLER AMY B	director	Award / grant	45,871	313,585	Form 4
2026-05-22	ROBERTS EIRY	director	Award / grant	45,871	45,871	Form 4
2026-05-22	Garcia Christian A	director	Award / grant	45,871	135,578	Form 4
2026-05-22	GOETTLER MICHAEL	director	Award / grant	45,871	76,020	Form 4
2026-05-22	KAVANAGH SARAH B	director	Award / grant	45,871	282,230	Form 4
2026-05-22	Lee Frank D.	director	Award / grant	45,871	95,210	Form 4
2026-05-22	LEUNG SANDRA	director	Award / grant	45,871	90,225	Form 4
2026-05-22	Paulson John	director	Award / grant	45,871	417,565	Form 4
2026-03-31	Paulson John	director	Award / grant	11,574	371,694	Form 4
2026-03-31	LEUNG SANDRA	director	Award / grant	5,946	44,354	Form 4
2026-03-31	WECHSLER AMY B	director	Award / grant	1,273	267,714	Form 4
2026-03-02	APPIO THOMAS	director	Other acquisition	1,137,862	2,315,374	Form 4
2026-03-02	Carson Seana	officer	Other acquisition	137,922	621,181	Form 4
2026-03-02	APPIO THOMAS	director	Withheld for tax	83,705	3,453,236	Form 4
2026-03-02	Carson Seana	officer	Withheld for tax	16,973	759,103	Form 4
2026-02-27	APPIO THOMAS	director	Withheld for tax	83,093	3,536,941	Form 4
2026-02-27	Charhon Jean-Jacques	officer	Withheld for tax	49,060	706,478	Form 4
2026-02-27	Carson Seana	officer	Withheld for tax	26,326	782,932	Form 4
2026-02-26	APPIO THOMAS	director	Withheld for tax	116,502	3,620,034	Form 4
2026-02-26	Charhon Jean-Jacques	officer	Withheld for tax	35,977	755,538	Form 4
2026-02-26	Carson Seana	officer	Withheld for tax	32,211	817,646	Form 4
2026-02-26	Lenar Aimee J.	officer	Withheld for tax	17,578	400,335	Form 4
2026-02-25	APPIO THOMAS	director	Award / grant	815,425	3,736,536	Form 4
2026-02-25	Charhon Jean-Jacques	officer	Award / grant	276,055	791,515	Form 4
2026-02-25	Carson Seana	officer	Award / grant	212,350	849,857	Form 4
2026-02-25	Lenar Aimee J.	officer	Award / grant	157,139	417,913	Form 4
2026-02-25	LEE STEVEN HYOSIG	officer	Award / grant	45,868	73,239	Form 4
2026-02-09	APPIO THOMAS	director	Award / grant	1,137,862	2,921,111	Form 4
2026-02-09	Carson Seana	officer	Award / grant	137,922	637,507	Form 4
2025-12-31	Paulson John	director	Award / grant	8,992	360,120	Form 4
2025-12-31	WECHSLER AMY B	director	Award / grant	989	266,441	Form 4
2025-12-31	LEUNG SANDRA	director	Award / grant	4,586	38,408	Form 4
2025-09-30	WECHSLER AMY B	director	Award / grant	1,065	265,452	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i