BHBiglari Holdings Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Restaurantsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $355.72 · now $355.72 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BH has typically landed between $304.40 and $437.33 — a range of −14.4% to +22.9% from the issuance price $355.72.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($355.72) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where BH has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $355.72 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$304.4worst · -14.4%$437.33best · +22.9%
  • now $355.72 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $355.56 (-0.0%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $325.75–$385.36
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $304.4–$437.33
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-20−63.9%−63.9%+3.0%
2020-02-21−62.0%−64.0%+2.6%
2020-02-19−60.2%−60.2%+4.2%
3 best
2008-11-20+107.2%+0.0%+111.9%
2008-11-19+105.6%−3.0%+105.6%
2008-11-24+77.7%+0.0%+87.1%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
45%
−0.3%
n=20
Feb
70%
+3.2%
n=20
Mar
45%
−1.2%
n=20
Apr
60%
+2.8%
n=20
May
30%
−5.0%
n=20
Jun
55%
+4.1%
n=20
Jul
60%
+0.2%
n=20
Aug
50%
+1.3%
n=20
Sep
35%
−0.0%
n=20
Oct
55%
−1.5%
n=20
Nov
50%
+2.6%
n=20
Dec
75%
+6.9%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$477$2482026-06-05: 1 insider purchase, $159K — BIGLARI, SARDAR2026-06-04: 1 insider purchase, $500K — BIGLARI, SARDAR2026-05-14: 1 insider purchase, $3.7M — BIGLARI, SARDAR2026-05-13: 1 insider purchase, $4.0M — BIGLARI, SARDAR2026-05-12: 1 insider purchase, $5.7M — BIGLARI, SARDAR2026-03-13: 1 insider purchase, $849K — BIGLARI, SARDAR2026-03-09: 1 insider purchase, $1000K — BIGLARI, SARDAR2026-03-06: 1 insider purchase, $750K — BIGLARI, SARDAR2026-03-03: 1 insider purchase, $379K — BIGLARI, SARDAR2025-12-17: 2 insider purchases, $1.6M — BIGLARI, SARDAR …2025-12-16: 1 insider purchase, $250K — BIGLARI, SARDAR2025-12-15: 2 insider purchases, $148K — BIGLARI, SARDAR …2025-12-12: 1 insider purchase, $150K — BIGLARI, SARDAR2025-12-10: 1 insider purchase, $100K — BIGLARI, SARDAR2025-12-09: 1 insider purchase, $299K — BIGLARI, SARDAR2025-12-08: 1 insider purchase, $307K — BIGLARI, SARDAR2025-12-05: 1 insider purchase, $450K — BIGLARI, SARDAR2025-12-04: 1 insider purchase, $349K — BIGLARI, SARDAR2025-12-03: 1 insider purchase, $850K — BIGLARI, SARDAR2025-11-24: 2 insider purchases, $799K — BIGLARI, SARDAR …2025-11: 2 open-market purchases, $799K2025-12: 12 open-market purchases, $4.5M2026-03: 4 open-market purchases, $3.0M2026-05: 3 open-market purchases, $13.4M2026-06: 2 open-market purchases, $659K↑ buys↓ salesdirector BIGLARI, SARDAR — Purchase on 2026-06-05, filed same daydirector BIGLARI, SARDAR — Purchase on 2026-06-04, filed 1 day after the tradedirector BIGLARI, SARDAR — Purchase on 2026-05-14, filed same daydirector BIGLARI, SARDAR — Purchase on 2026-05-13, filed 1 day after the tradedirector BIGLARI, SARDAR — Purchase on 2026-05-12, filed 2 days after the tradedirector BIGLARI, SARDAR — Purchase on 2026-03-13, filed same daydirector BIGLARI, SARDAR — Purchase on 2026-03-09, filed same daydirector BIGLARI, SARDAR — Purchase on 2026-03-06, filed same daydirector BIGLARI, SARDAR — Purchase on 2026-03-03, filed same daydirector BIGLARI, SARDAR — Purchase on 2025-12-17, filed same daydirector BIGLARI, SARDAR — Purchase on 2025-12-17, filed same daydirector BIGLARI, SARDAR — Purchase on 2025-12-16, filed same daydirector BIGLARI, SARDAR — Purchase on 2025-12-15, filed 1 day after the tradedirector BIGLARI, SARDAR — Purchase on 2025-12-15, filed 1 day after the tradedirector BIGLARI, SARDAR — Purchase on 2025-12-12, filed 4 days after the tradedirector BIGLARI, SARDAR — Purchase on 2025-12-10, filed same daydirector BIGLARI, SARDAR — Purchase on 2025-12-09, filed 1 day after the tradedirector BIGLARI, SARDAR — Purchase on 2025-12-08, filed 2 days after the tradedirector BIGLARI, SARDAR — Purchase on 2025-12-05, filed same daydirector BIGLARI, SARDAR — Purchase on 2025-12-04, filed 1 day after the tradedirector BIGLARI, SARDAR — Purchase on 2025-12-03, filed 2 days after the tradedirector BIGLARI, SARDAR — Purchase on 2025-11-24, filed same daydirector BIGLARI, SARDAR — Purchase on 2025-11-24, filed same day
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-06-05BIGLARI, SARDARdirectorPurchase535 @ $297.14$159K+0.0% of holding+36.2%not yet — horizon still open1,400,382Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-04BIGLARI, SARDARdirectorPurchase1,743 @ $286.76$500K+0.1% of holding+40.1%not yet — horizon still open1,399,847Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-14BIGLARI, SARDARdirectorPurchase14,351 @ $258.06$3.7M+1.0% of holding+32.3%not yet — horizon still open1,398,104Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-13BIGLARI, SARDARdirectorPurchase15,358 @ $260.36$4.0M+1.1% of holding+34.3%not yet — horizon still open1,383,753Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-12BIGLARI, SARDARdirectorPurchase22,965 @ $249.84$5.7M+1.7% of holding+31.3%not yet — horizon still open1,368,395Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-13BIGLARI, SARDARdirectorPurchase2,810 @ $302.20$849K+0.2% of holding+6.3%+6.0%1,345,430Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-09BIGLARI, SARDARdirectorPurchase3,320 @ $301.06$1000K+0.2% of holding+11.2%+3.4%1,342,620Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-06BIGLARI, SARDARdirectorPurchase2,441 @ $307.20$750K+0.2% of holding+11.9%+10.8%1,339,300Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-03BIGLARI, SARDARdirectorPurchase1,146 @ $331.15$379K+0.1% of holding+2.7%+3.9%1,336,859Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-17BIGLARI, SARDARdirectorPurchase3,084 @ $323.71$998K+0.2% of holding+36.8%−8.0%1,335,713Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-17BIGLARI, SARDARdirectorPurchase368 @ $1633.52$601K+0.3% of holding+36.8%−8.0%128,812Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-16BIGLARI, SARDARdirectorPurchase156 @ $1599.87$250K+0.1% of holding+40.4%−7.8%128,444Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-15BIGLARI, SARDARdirectorPurchase60 @ $1635.37$98K+0.0% of holding+39.4%−6.1%128,288Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-15BIGLARI, SARDARdirectorPurchase152 @ $328.00$50K+0.0% of holding+39.4%−6.1%1,332,629Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-12BIGLARI, SARDARdirectorPurchase449 @ $333.14$150K+0.0% of holding+35.1%−7.7%1,332,477Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-10BIGLARI, SARDARdirectorPurchase310 @ $321.94$100K+0.0% of holding+32.4%−2.9%1,332,028Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-09BIGLARI, SARDARdirectorPurchase938 @ $319.08$299K+0.1% of holding+29.4%−3.9%1,331,718Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-08BIGLARI, SARDARdirectorPurchase973 @ $315.08$307K+0.1% of holding+27.6%−8.3%1,330,780Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-05BIGLARI, SARDARdirectorPurchase1,465 @ $306.90$450K+0.1% of holding+26.4%−8.1%1,329,807Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-04BIGLARI, SARDARdirectorPurchase1,139 @ $306.05$349K+0.1% of holding+19.1%−11.8%1,328,342Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-03BIGLARI, SARDARdirectorPurchase2,802 @ $303.32$850K+0.2% of holding+13.3%−13.3%1,327,203Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-24BIGLARI, SARDARdirectorPurchase1,819 @ $274.74$500K+0.1% of holding+22.4%−15.6%1,324,401Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-24BIGLARI, SARDARdirectorPurchase213 @ $1406.27$300K+0.2% of holding+22.4%−15.6%128,228Form 4 · filed same day
2024-12-17BIGLARI, SARDARdirectorPurchase682 @ $1250.34$853K+0.5% of holding−14.1%+13.5%128,015Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-17BIGLARI, SARDARdirectorPurchase2,589 @ $249.55$646K+0.2% of holding−14.1%+13.5%1,322,582Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-16BIGLARI, SARDARdirectorPurchase703 @ $234.12$165K+0.1% of holding−6.4%+20.8%1,319,993Form 4 · filed same day
2024-12-16BIGLARI, SARDARdirectorPurchase114 @ $1186.32$135K+0.1% of holding−6.4%+20.8%127,333Form 4 · filed same day
2024-12-13BIGLARI, SARDARdirectorPurchase128 @ $234.98$30K+0.0% of holding−5.4%+19.3%1,319,290Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-12-13BIGLARI, SARDARdirectorPurchase17 @ $1160.00$20K+0.0% of holding−5.4%+19.3%127,219Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-12-12BIGLARI, SARDARdirectorPurchase277 @ $1174.06$325K+0.2% of holding−5.7%+15.7%127,202Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-12-12BIGLARI, SARDARdirectorPurchase239 @ $234.13$56K+0.0% of holding−5.7%+15.7%1,319,162Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-12-05BIGLARI, SARDARdirectorPurchase2,167 @ $228.47$495K+0.2% of holding+5.4%+15.8%1,318,923Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.