BGSB&G Foods, Inc.Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foodsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $3.14 · now $3.14 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BGS has typically landed between $2.46 and $3.69 — a range of −21.8% to +17.6% from the issuance price $3.14.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,839 overlapping 1 month windows · 2007-05-23 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($3.14) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where BGS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $3.14 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$2.46worst · -21.8%$3.69best · +17.6%
  • now $3.14 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $3.09 (-1.7%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $2.84–$3.34
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $2.46–$3.69
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,839 windows spanning 2007-05-23 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-25−66.2%−66.2%+0.0%
2008-09-26−61.9%−65.9%+0.0%
2008-09-30−61.1%−64.1%+0.0%
3 best
2008-10-24+104.2%+0.0%+104.2%
2008-10-29+92.9%+0.0%+96.6%
2008-10-28+82.8%−7.0%+82.8%

4,839 overlapping windows · 2007-05-23 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
37%
+0.9%
n=19
Feb
32%
−2.9%
n=19
Mar
74%
+7.1%
n=19
Apr
58%
+2.1%
n=19
May
58%
−1.6%
n=19
Jun
60%
+4.2%
n=20
Jul
55%
−0.5%
n=20
Aug
40%
−1.4%
n=20
Sep
55%
−1.9%
n=20
Oct
16%
−4.8%
n=19
Nov
74%
+4.9%
n=19
Dec
58%
+2.0%
n=19

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$6$32026-09-14: 1 insider purchase, $18K — Brunts DeAnn L2026-03-13: 2 insider sales, $205K — Vogel Andrew D, Wenner David L2026-03-12: 1 insider sale, $61K — Schoch Martin C.2025-11-26: 1 insider sale, $85K — Mullen Dennis M2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $85K2026-03: 3 open-market sales, $266K2026-09: 1 open-market purchase, $18K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Brunts DeAnn L — Purchase on 2026-09-14, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Vogel Andrew D — Sale on 2026-03-13, filed same daydirector Wenner David L — Sale on 2026-03-13, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Schoch Martin C. — Sale on 2026-03-12, filed same daydirector Mullen Dennis M — Sale on 2025-11-26, filed 5 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-14Brunts DeAnn LdirectorPurchase5,616 @ $3.21$18K+5.1% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open116,454Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-13Vogel Andrew DofficerSale20,000 @ $5.19$104K−28.3% of holding+5.4%−51.4%50,679Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-13Wenner David LdirectorSale19,500 @ $5.19$101K−2.4% of holding+5.4%−51.4%787,566Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-12Schoch Martin C.officerSale11,321 @ $5.40$61K−24.8% of holding+3.8%−51.7%34,347Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-26Mullen Dennis MdirectorSale18,795 @ $4.50$85K−18.3% of holding+1.4%−16.4%83,956Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-05-30Hart Eric HofficerSale1,500 @ $4.18$6K−1.3% of holding+5.2%+2.9%112,411Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-16Schoch Martin C.officerSale3,931 @ $4.45$18K−10.3% of holding−2.2%−1.5%34,347Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

80 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-10Mills Robert DdirectorAward / grant134,408234,064Form 4
2026-08-10Mills Robert DdirectorAward / grant900,000900,000Form 4
2026-06-01SHERRILL STEPHENdirectorAward / grant189,111189,111Form 4
2026-06-01Mills Robert DdirectorAward / grant26,91599,656Form 4
2026-06-01MARCY CHARLES FdirectorAward / grant26,915122,636Form 4
2026-06-01Brunts DeAnn LdirectorAward / grant26,915110,838Form 4
2026-06-01Chase Debra MdirectorAward / grant26,91587,456Form 4
2026-06-01Mullen Dennis MdirectorAward / grant26,915110,871Form 4
2026-06-01POE ALFREDdirectorAward / grant26,915107,596Form 4
2026-06-01Palmer Cheryl MdirectorAward / grant26,915107,136Form 4
2026-06-01Wenner David LdirectorAward / grant26,915814,481Form 4
2026-06-01SHERRILL STEPHENdirectorAward / grant26,915404,666Form 4
2026-04-07Schum Ellen MofficerWithheld for tax3,729172,708Form 4
2026-04-07Schum Ellen MofficerAward / grant10,886176,437Form 4
2026-03-25Keller Kenneth C JrdirectorWithheld for tax80,929868,943Form 4
2026-03-25Lerner Scott EofficerWithheld for tax9,905311,035Form 4
2026-03-25Wacha Bruce CofficerWithheld for tax9,849204,973Form 4
2026-03-25Schum Ellen MofficerWithheld for tax7,535165,551Form 4
2026-03-25Hart Eric HofficerWithheld for tax6,846166,228Form 4
2026-03-25Vogel Andrew DofficerWithheld for tax6,49081,528Form 4
2026-03-25Schoch Martin C.officerWithheld for tax4,84064,090Form 4
2026-03-25Thompson Kristen A.officerWithheld for tax2,80526,548Form 4
2026-03-25Adasczik MichaelofficerWithheld for tax2,62549,673Form 4
2026-03-25Ozgopoyan John A.officerAward / grant37,57137,571Form 4
2026-03-25Wacha Bruce CofficerAward / grant57,253214,822Form 4
2026-03-25Hart Eric HofficerAward / grant39,117173,074Form 4
2026-03-25Keller Kenneth C JrdirectorAward / grant311,351949,872Form 4
2026-03-25Lerner Scott EofficerAward / grant57,574320,940Form 4
2026-03-25Vogel Andrew DofficerAward / grant37,33988,018Form 4
2026-03-25Adasczik MichaelofficerAward / grant14,99152,298Form 4
2026-03-25Schoch Martin C.officerAward / grant34,58368,930Form 4
2026-03-25Schum Ellen MofficerAward / grant42,518173,086Form 4
2026-03-02Keller Kenneth C JrdirectorWithheld for tax116,971638,521Form 4
2026-03-02Lerner Scott EofficerWithheld for tax16,618263,366Form 4
2026-03-02Wacha Bruce CofficerWithheld for tax16,531157,569Form 4
2026-03-02Hart Eric HofficerWithheld for tax12,992133,957Form 4
2026-03-02Schoch Martin C.officerWithheld for tax7,54645,668Form 4
2026-03-02Schum Ellen MofficerWithheld for tax7,531130,568Form 4
2026-03-02Vogel Andrew DofficerWithheld for tax6,47470,679Form 4
2026-03-02Adasczik MichaelofficerWithheld for tax5,28937,307Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.