BGCBGC Group, IncFinancial Services · Financial - Capital Marketsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $12.18 · now $12.18 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BGC has typically landed between $10.48 and $14.31 — a range of −13.9% to +17.5% from the issuance price $12.18.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($12.18) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where BGC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $12.18 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$10.48worst · -13.9%$14.31best · +17.5%
  • now $12.18 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $12.4 (+1.8%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $11.64–$13.16
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $10.48–$14.31
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-03-04−54.9%−54.9%+0.0%
2020-03-05−53.7%−53.7%+0.0%
2020-02-18−52.8%−52.8%+3.5%
3 best
2009-03-05+80.9%+0.0%+102.9%
2009-03-11+76.0%+0.0%+76.9%
2009-03-10+67.3%−2.8%+72.0%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
45%
−0.3%
n=20
Feb
65%
+4.6%
n=20
Mar
65%
+2.0%
n=20
Apr
60%
+3.7%
n=20
May
30%
−1.9%
n=20
Jun
50%
+0.3%
n=20
Jul
65%
+2.6%
n=20
Aug
45%
−0.7%
n=20
Sep
45%
−2.0%
n=20
Oct
65%
+6.2%
n=20
Nov
60%
+3.6%
n=20
Dec
55%
−1.4%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$13$82026-03-05: 1 insider sale, $96K — AUBIN JEAN-PIERRE2025-10-06: 9 insider purchases, $247.9M — Lutnick Brandon, CF GROUP MANAGEMENT INC, CANTOR FITZGERALD, L. P. …2025-10-06: 7 insider sales, $82.6M — LUTNICK HOWARD W …2025-08-21: 1 insider sale, $286K — Hauf Jason W.2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $286K2025-10: 9 open-market purchases, $247.9M2025-10: 7 open-market sales, $82.6M2026-03: 1 open-market sale, $96K↑ buys↓ salesofficer AUBIN JEAN-PIERRE — Sale on 2026-03-05, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Lutnick Brandon — Purchase on 2025-10-06, filed same daydirector CF GROUP MANAGEMENT INC — Purchase on 2025-10-06, filed same daydirector CANTOR FITZGERALD, L. P. — Purchase on 2025-10-06, filed same daydirector LUTNICK HOWARD W — Sale on 2025-10-06, filed same daydirector LUTNICK HOWARD W — Sale on 2025-10-06, filed same daydirector Lutnick Brandon — Purchase on 2025-10-06, filed same daydirector Lutnick Brandon — Purchase on 2025-10-06, filed same daydirector Lutnick Brandon — Purchase on 2025-10-06, filed same daydirector LUTNICK HOWARD W — Sale on 2025-10-06, filed same daydirector Lutnick Brandon — Purchase on 2025-10-06, filed same daydirector Lutnick Brandon — Purchase on 2025-10-06, filed same daydirector Lutnick Brandon — Purchase on 2025-10-06, filed same daydirector LUTNICK HOWARD W — Sale on 2025-10-06, filed same daydirector LUTNICK HOWARD W — Sale on 2025-10-06, filed same daydirector LUTNICK HOWARD W — Sale on 2025-10-06, filed same daydirector LUTNICK HOWARD W — Sale on 2025-10-06, filed same dayofficer Hauf Jason W. — Sale on 2025-08-21, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-03-05AUBIN JEAN-PIERREofficerSale10,000 @ $9.55$96K−0.9% of holding+12.2%+13.8%1,121,641Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-10-06Lutnick BrandondirectorPurchase8,973,721 @ $9.21$82.6M+8.9% of holding+1.8%+20.3%109,405,906Form 4 · filed same day
2025-10-06CF GROUP MANAGEMENT INCdirectorPurchase8,973,721 @ $9.21$82.6M+9.6% of holding+1.8%+20.3%102,314,198Form 4 · filed same day
2025-10-06CANTOR FITZGERALD, L. P.directorPurchase8,973,721 @ $9.21$82.6M+9.6% of holding+1.8%+20.3%102,314,198Form 4 · filed same day
2025-10-06LUTNICK HOWARD WdirectorSale8,973,721 @ $9.21$82.6M−100.0% of holding+1.8%+20.3%0Form 4 · filed same day
2025-10-06LUTNICK HOWARD WdirectorSale96,313,001—−96.1% of holding+1.8%+20.3%3,946,149Form 4 · filed same day
2025-10-06Lutnick BrandondirectorPurchase600,938—+43.6% of holding+1.8%+20.3%1,978,568Form 4 · filed same day
2025-10-06Lutnick BrandondirectorPurchase3,946,149—+4.1% of holding+1.8%+20.3%100,432,185Form 4 · filed same day
2025-10-06Lutnick BrandondirectorPurchase96,313,001—+2338.2% of holding+1.8%+20.3%100,432,185Form 4 · filed same day
2025-10-06LUTNICK HOWARD WdirectorSale600,939—−64.0% of holding+1.8%+20.3%337,765Form 4 · filed same day
2025-10-06Lutnick BrandondirectorPurchase96,313,001—+2338.2% of holding+1.8%+20.3%100,432,185Form 4 · filed same day
2025-10-06Lutnick BrandondirectorPurchase3,946,149—+4.1% of holding+1.8%+20.3%100,432,185Form 4 · filed same day
2025-10-06Lutnick BrandondirectorPurchase600,938—+43.6% of holding+1.8%+20.3%1,978,568Form 4 · filed same day
2025-10-06LUTNICK HOWARD WdirectorSale96,313,001—−96.1% of holding+1.8%+20.3%3,946,149Form 4 · filed same day
2025-10-06LUTNICK HOWARD WdirectorSale3,946,149—−100.0% of holding+1.8%+20.3%0Form 4 · filed same day
2025-10-06LUTNICK HOWARD WdirectorSale600,939—−64.0% of holding+1.8%+20.3%337,765Form 4 · filed same day
2025-10-06LUTNICK HOWARD WdirectorSale3,946,149—−100.0% of holding+1.8%+20.3%0Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-21Hauf Jason W.officerSale29,023 @ $9.86$286K−27.3% of holding−7.4%−12.5%77,196Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-10MBANEFO ARTHUR UdirectorSale18,151 @ $9.77$177K−48.5% of holding+2.2%−22.5%19,309Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

41 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-28AUBIN JEAN-PIERREofficerDisposition373,1911,082,071Form 4
2026-04-01MERKEL STEPHEN MdirectorAward / grant77,882212,317Form 4
2026-04-01MERKEL STEPHEN MdirectorWithheld for tax16,576195,741Form 4
2026-04-01Hauf Jason W.officerWithheld for tax6,320113,711Form 4
2026-04-01Windeatt Sean AofficerWithheld for tax5,649725,113Form 4
2026-04-01AUBIN JEAN-PIERREofficerAward / grant269,5571,455,262Form 4
2026-04-01Windeatt Sean AofficerAward / grant268,498730,762Form 4
2026-04-01Hauf Jason W.officerAward / grant42,835120,031Form 4
2026-04-01ABULARRAGE JOHN J.officerAward / grant350,727832,072Form 4
2026-04-01Windeatt Sean AofficerAward / grant268,498730,762Form 4
2026-04-01AUBIN JEAN-PIERREofficerAward / grant269,5571,455,262Form 4
2026-04-01Hauf Jason W.officerAward / grant42,835120,031Form 4
2026-04-01ABULARRAGE JOHN J.officerAward / grant350,727832,072Form 4
2026-03-15ABULARRAGE JOHN J.officerWithheld for tax41,516481,345Form 4
2026-03-15AUBIN JEAN-PIERREofficerWithheld for tax14,3921,185,705Form 4
2026-01-22Windeatt Sean AofficerDisposition246,360462,264Form 4
2025-11-12Bell Linda AdirectorAward / grant5,44741,044Form 4
2025-11-12Addas William DeandirectorAward / grant5,44732,652Form 4
2025-11-12Richards DaviddirectorAward / grant5,44724,999Form 4
2025-11-12MBANEFO ARTHUR UdirectorAward / grant5,44724,756Form 4
2025-10-06LUTNICK HOWARD WdirectorDisposition337,7650Form 4
2025-10-03MERKEL STEPHEN MdirectorDisposition16,511134,435Form 4
2025-07-30Hauf Jason W.officerWithheld for tax12,849106,219Form 4
2025-06-10MBANEFO ARTHUR UdirectorDisposition12,20537,460Form 4
2025-05-16LUTNICK HOWARD WdirectorDisposition10,498,4901,559,403Form 4
2025-05-16LUTNICK HOWARD WdirectorDisposition5,616,6120Form 4
2025-04-01MERKEL STEPHEN MdirectorWithheld for tax8,529150,946Form 4
2025-04-01Windeatt Sean AofficerWithheld for tax5,649708,624Form 4
2025-04-01Hauf Jason W.officerWithheld for tax3,228119,068Form 4
2025-04-01MERKEL STEPHEN MdirectorAward / grant72,751159,475Form 4
2025-04-01Windeatt Sean AofficerAward / grant73,098714,273Form 4
2025-04-01ABULARRAGE JOHN J.officerAward / grant164,890522,861Form 4
2025-04-01AUBIN JEAN-PIERREofficerAward / grant78,4561,200,097Form 4
2025-04-01AUBIN JEAN-PIERREofficerAward / grant78,4561,200,097Form 4
2025-04-01ABULARRAGE JOHN J.officerAward / grant164,890522,861Form 4
2025-04-01Hauf Jason W.officerAward / grant38,360122,296Form 4
2025-04-01Hauf Jason W.officerAward / grant38,360122,296Form 4
2025-04-01Windeatt Sean AofficerAward / grant73,098714,273Form 4
2025-04-01MERKEL STEPHEN MdirectorAward / grant72,751159,475Form 4
2025-03-04Bell Linda AdirectorDisposition12,72735,597Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.