BGBunge Global S.A.Consumer Defensive · Agricultural Farm Productsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $117.13 · now $117.13 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BG has typically landed between $103.00 and $133.21 — a range of −12.1% to +13.7% from the issuance price $117.13.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($117.13) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where BG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $117.13 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$103worst · -12.1%$133.21best · +13.7%
  • now $117.13 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $118.11 (+0.8%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $111.73–$124.5
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $103–$133.21
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-26−55.6%−55.6%+0.0%
2008-09-25−52.8%−52.8%+0.0%
2008-09-23−51.5%−51.5%+2.2%
3 best
2008-12-04+49.4%+0.0%+49.4%
2008-12-03+45.9%−0.6%+45.9%
2008-12-02+40.2%−1.6%+40.2%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$23.6B
market cap
$4.30
EPS (TTM)
28.3
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-29
next earnings
Revenue$70.3B
'20'25
Net income$816M
'20'25
Free cash flow−$923M
'20'25
Net margin · by yr1.2%
'20'25
ROE · by yr5.1%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr1.00
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 28 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $117.13$101.52$153.59
  • DCF (intrinsic)$110.68
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 24.4× · n=28$105.11
  • Analyst target · range $130.00–$150.00$130.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$117.13

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
39%
−0.2%
n=18
Feb
53%
+2.0%
n=19
Mar
63%
+1.5%
n=19
Apr
42%
+0.8%
n=19
May
53%
+2.3%
n=19
Jun
42%
−3.7%
n=19
Jul
58%
+2.9%
n=19
Aug
42%
−0.2%
n=19
Sep
47%
−2.8%
n=19
Oct
56%
+1.5%
n=18
Nov
67%
+2.3%
n=18
Dec
61%
+1.2%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$131$762026-08-04: 1 insider purchase, $161K — Mahoney Christopher2026-07-31: 1 insider purchase, $528K — Mahoney Christopher2026-02-11: 1 insider sale, $337K — Garros Julio2025-11-21: 2 insider sales, $2.4M — Dimopoulos Christos …2025-08-18: 1 insider purchase, $409K — Mahoney Christopher2025-08: 1 open-market purchase, $409K2025-11: 2 open-market sales, $2.4M2026-02: 1 open-market sale, $337K2026-07: 1 open-market purchase, $528K2026-08: 1 open-market purchase, $161K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Mahoney Christopher — Purchase on 2026-08-04, filed same daydirector Mahoney Christopher — Purchase on 2026-07-31, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Garros Julio — Sale on 2026-02-11, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Dimopoulos Christos — Sale on 2025-11-21, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Dimopoulos Christos — Sale on 2025-11-21, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Mahoney Christopher — Purchase on 2025-08-18, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-04Mahoney ChristopherdirectorPurchase1,500 @ $107.60$161K+11.3% of holding+15.9%not yet — horizon still open14,820Form 4 · filed same day
2026-07-31Mahoney ChristopherdirectorPurchase5,000 @ $105.53$528K+60.1% of holding+6.7%not yet — horizon still open13,320Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-11Garros JulioofficerSale2,831 @ $119.00$337K−2.2% of holding+7.1%−20.1%127,796Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-21Dimopoulos ChristosofficerSale20,000 @ $94.37$1.9M−16.1% of holding−11.1%+15.1%104,537Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-21Dimopoulos ChristosofficerSale5,300 @ $94.38$500K−4.1% of holding−11.1%+15.1%124,537Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-18Mahoney ChristopherdirectorPurchase5,000 @ $81.73$409K+231.1% of holding−1.8%+47.2%7,164Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

211 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-01HECKMAN GREGORY AdirectorAward / grant992276,765Form 4
2026-09-01Neppl John WofficerAward / grant253149,448Form 4
2026-09-01Garros JulioofficerAward / grant253142,899Form 4
2026-09-01Dimopoulos ChristosofficerAward / grant160118,514Form 4
2026-09-01Podwika JosephofficerAward / grant13992,271Form 4
2026-09-01Sears KellieofficerAward / grant11731,874Form 4
2026-09-01Simmons Jerry Matthews JRofficerAward / grant5558,998Form 4
2026-09-01Zenuk Mark NdirectorAward / grant2024,032Form 4
2026-09-01Browner Carol M.directorAward / grant1030,625Form 4
2026-09-01Isman AdriandirectorAward / grant103,330Form 4
2026-09-01Jojo Linda PdirectorAward / grant103,612Form 4
2026-09-01Lustosa de Andrade Eliane AleixodirectorAward / grant107,292Form 4
2026-09-01Simril KennethdirectorAward / grant109,824Form 4
2026-09-01Mahoney ChristopherdirectorAward / grant1014,830Form 4
2026-09-01Jensen AnnedirectorAward / grant103,330Form 4
2026-09-01WINSHIP HENRY WARD IVdirectorAward / grant1034,483Form 4
2026-09-01Walt MarkusdirectorAward / grant103,746Form 4
2026-09-01McGurk Monica HouledirectorAward / grant107,098Form 4
2026-06-01HECKMAN GREGORY AdirectorAward / grant927275,773Form 4
2026-06-01Neppl John WofficerAward / grant237149,195Form 4
2026-06-01Garros JulioofficerAward / grant237142,646Form 4
2026-06-01Dimopoulos ChristosofficerAward / grant149118,354Form 4
2026-06-01Podwika JosephofficerAward / grant13092,132Form 4
2026-06-01Sears KellieofficerAward / grant10931,757Form 4
2026-06-01Simmons Jerry Matthews JRofficerAward / grant5158,943Form 4
2026-06-01Zenuk Mark NdirectorAward / grant1824,012Form 4
2026-06-01Mahoney ChristopherdirectorAward / grant98,320Form 4
2026-06-01Simril KennethdirectorAward / grant99,814Form 4
2026-06-01Browner Carol M.directorAward / grant930,615Form 4
2026-06-01Walt MarkusdirectorAward / grant93,736Form 4
2026-06-01Lustosa de Andrade Eliane AleixodirectorAward / grant97,282Form 4
2026-06-01WINSHIP HENRY WARD IVdirectorAward / grant934,473Form 4
2026-06-01Jojo Linda PdirectorAward / grant93,602Form 4
2026-06-01Jensen AnnedirectorAward / grant93,320Form 4
2026-06-01Isman AdriandirectorAward / grant93,320Form 4
2026-06-01McGurk Monica HouledirectorAward / grant97,088Form 4
2026-05-20Zenuk Mark NdirectorAward / grant3,30823,994Form 4
2026-05-20Simril KennethdirectorAward / grant1,6549,805Form 4
2026-05-20Jojo Linda PdirectorAward / grant1,6543,593Form 4
2026-05-20Jensen AnnedirectorAward / grant1,6543,311Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2023-06-122023-05-23$1–15K
Earl BlumenauerHousesale2020-04-162020-03-19$1–15K
Earl BlumenauerHousepurchase2018-11-062018-11-02$1–15K
Josh GottheimerHousesale2018-08-132017-04-13$1–15K
Ms. Lois FrankelHousesale2014-06-182014-06-12$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.