BFST · TickerCove

BFSTBusiness First Bancshares, Inc.Financial Services · Banks - Regionalas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $30.97 · now $30.97 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BFST has typically landed between $27.47 and $35.54 — a range of −11.3% to +14.8% from the issuance price $30.97.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

2,099 overlapping 1 month windows · 2018-04-11 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($30.97) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$30.97 · 87% of range

$22.35 low$32.28 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−0.2%

typical move · IQR 11.6%

−11.3%worst (p90)+14.8%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where BFST has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $30.97 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $30.97 (+0.0%)
typical $30.91 (-0.2%)
middle 50% $29.11–$32.71
90% range $27.47–$35.54

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,099 windows spanning 2018-04-11 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-19	−62.3%	−62.3%	+0.5%
2020-02-21	−61.3%	−62.1%	+0.0%
2020-02-20	−61.3%	−62.5%	+0.0%
3 best
2020-05-06	+48.7%	−5.6%	+48.7%
2020-05-15	+44.7%	+0.0%	+51.7%
2023-07-07	+42.0%	−0.3%	+43.2%

2,099 overlapping windows · 2018-04-11 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~9 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

25%

−1.4%

n=8

Feb

50%

+0.9%

n=8

Mar

13%

−8.8%

n=8

Apr

38%

−3.2%

n=8

May

67%

+0.7%

n=9

Jun

78%

+3.2%

n=9

Jul

56%

+5.5%

n=9

Aug

67%

+0.8%

n=9

Sep

44%

−1.1%

n=9

Oct

88%

+6.2%

n=8

Nov

75%

+3.7%

n=8

Dec

63%

+2.0%

n=8

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-24	Cummings George W. III	director	Sale	10,000 @ $31.33	$313K	−5.2% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	183,745	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-21	Cummings George W. III	director	Sale	4,200 @ $31.27	$131K	−2.1% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	193,745	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-19	Cummings George W. III	director	Sale	3,235 @ $31.80	$103K	−1.6% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	197,945	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-18	Cummings George W. III	director	Sale	10,000 @ $31.78	$318K	−4.7% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	201,180	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-06	Carter Donald Chad	officer	Sale	1,875 @ $31.64	$59K	−12.9% of holding	+0.2%	not yet — horizon still open	12,642	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-05	Hall William G.	director	Sale	9,723 @ $31.97	$311K	−100.0% of holding	−2.0%	not yet — horizon still open	0	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-05	Hall William G.	director	Sale	1,666 @ $31.97	$53K	−31.9% of holding	−2.0%	not yet — horizon still open	3,550	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-05	Strong Saundra	officer	Sale	1,000 @ $31.98	$32K	−17.0% of holding	−2.0%	not yet — horizon still open	4,878	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-03	Cummings George W. III	director	Sale	10,000 @ $31.87	$319K	−4.5% of holding	−4.4%	not yet — horizon still open	211,180	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-31	Cummings George W. III	director	Sale	10,000 @ $31.50	$315K	−4.3% of holding	−5.2%	not yet — horizon still open	221,180	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-07-30	Cummings George W. III	director	Sale	10,000 @ $32.08	$321K	−4.1% of holding	−6.0%	not yet — horizon still open	231,180	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-30	MANSFIELD KEITH	officer	Sale	4,200 @ $32.08	$135K	−5.2% of holding	−6.0%	not yet — horizon still open	77,139	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-29	Cummings George W. III	director	Sale	10,000 @ $31.88	$319K	−4.0% of holding	−8.1%	not yet — horizon still open	241,180	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-29	Johnson Joseph Vernon	director	Sale	2,000 @ $31.15	$62K	−1.1% of holding	−8.1%	not yet — horizon still open	172,073	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-28	Cummings George W. III	director	Sale	10,000 @ $31.86	$319K	−3.8% of holding	−6.4%	not yet — horizon still open	251,180	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-28	Johnson Joseph Vernon	director	Sale	10,000 @ $31.75	$318K	−5.4% of holding	−6.4%	not yet — horizon still open	174,073	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-28	Day Rick D.	director	Purchase	1,500 @ $31.61	$47K	+0.6% of holding	−6.4%	not yet — horizon still open	269,901	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-11	Cummings George W. III	director	Sale	5,000 @ $28.78	$144K	−1.9% of holding	+1.6%	not yet — horizon still open	261,180	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-10	Cummings George W. III	director	Sale	15,000 @ $28.89	$433K	−5.3% of holding	+1.5%	not yet — horizon still open	266,180	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-08	Cummings George W. III	director	Sale	15,000 @ $28.54	$428K	−5.1% of holding	+3.7%	not yet — horizon still open	281,180	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-27	Cummings George W. III	director	Sale	11,595 @ $27.92	$324K	−3.8% of holding	+12.1%	not yet — horizon still open	296,180	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-22	Cummings George W. III	director	Sale	10,000 @ $27.99	$280K	−3.1% of holding	+9.7%	not yet — horizon still open	307,775	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-03-04	Cummings George W. III	director	Sale	11,000 @ $27.60	$304K	−3.3% of holding	+3.9%	+1.9%	317,775	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-03	Cummings George W. III	director	Sale	9,800 @ $27.42	$269K	−2.9% of holding	+2.8%	−0.7%	328,775	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-02	Cummings George W. III	director	Sale	200 @ $27.80	$6K	−0.1% of holding	+2.6%	+0.2%	338,575	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-25	Cummings George W. III	director	Sale	20,000 @ $28.00	$560K	−5.6% of holding	+1.3%	−0.8%	338,775	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-10	Folse Mark P.	director	Sale	4,854 @ $29.51	$143K	−8.3% of holding	−6.6%	−1.8%	53,286	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-10	MCCOLLISTER ROLFE H. JR.	director	Purchase	120 @ $29.56	$4K	+0.1% of holding	−6.6%	−1.8%	93,080	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-09	Folse Mark P.	director	Sale	5,146 @ $29.75	$153K	−8.1% of holding	−8.2%	−2.5%	58,140	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-29	Carter Donald Chad	officer	Sale	3,778 @ $27.27	$103K	−21.4% of holding	+1.9%	+8.3%	13,863	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-27	Day Rick D.	director	Purchase	1,500 @ $27.55	$41K	+0.6% of holding	+5.7%	+13.2%	267,385	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-01	ROBERTSON GREG	officer	Sale	1,400 @ $26.41	$37K	−2.0% of holding	−1.1%	−4.9%	67,835	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-28	Day Rick D.	director	Purchase	1,600 @ $24.21	$39K	+0.6% of holding	+9.0%	+7.9%	265,885	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-22	Strong Saundra	officer	Sale	2,363 @ $25.38	$60K	−28.3% of holding	−8.1%	+3.3%	5,997	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-08-04	Buquet James J. III	director	Sale	5,164 @ $23.08	$119K	−15.3% of holding	+7.1%	+18.4%	28,523	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-31	Ducrest John P.	director	Purchase	2,225 @ $23.62	$53K	+19.4% of holding	+3.8%	+9.9%	13,716	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-06	MCCOLLISTER ROLFE H. JR.	director	Purchase	680 @ $23.40	$16K	+0.7% of holding	+6.7%	−0.7%	92,960	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

263 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-26	Hall William G.	director	Option exercise	1,016	20,990	Form 4
2026-06-26	Sanchez Alejandro M	director	Option exercise	1,016	998	Form 4
2026-06-26	Sidi Zeenat	director	Option exercise	1,016	1,674	Form 4
2026-06-26	Sidi Zeenat	director	Option exercise	1,016	998	Form 4
2026-06-26	Tillage Keith Alexis	director	Option exercise	1,016	6,409	Form 4
2026-06-26	Hall William G.	director	Option exercise	1,016	998	Form 4
2026-06-26	Tillage Keith Alexis	director	Option exercise	1,016	998	Form 4
2026-06-26	WHITE STEVEN GERARD	director	Option exercise	1,016	14,930	Form 4
2026-06-26	WHITE STEVEN GERARD	director	Option exercise	1,016	998	Form 4
2026-06-26	Johnson Joseph Vernon	director	Option exercise	1,016	184,073	Form 4
2026-06-26	Johnson Joseph Vernon	director	Option exercise	1,016	998	Form 4
2026-06-26	MCCOLLISTER ROLFE H. JR.	director	Option exercise	1,016	94,096	Form 4
2026-06-26	MCCOLLISTER ROLFE H. JR.	director	Option exercise	1,016	998	Form 4
2026-06-26	MOCKLER PATRICK E.	director	Option exercise	1,016	33,159	Form 4
2026-06-26	MOCKLER PATRICK E.	director	Option exercise	1,016	998	Form 4
2026-06-26	MONTGOMERY DAVID A. JR.	director	Option exercise	1,016	14,268	Form 4
2026-06-26	MONTGOMERY DAVID A. JR.	director	Option exercise	1,016	998	Form 4
2026-06-26	PRICE ARTHUR	director	Option exercise	1,016	11,680	Form 4
2026-06-26	PRICE ARTHUR	director	Option exercise	1,016	998	Form 4
2026-06-26	Quirk Aimee M	director	Option exercise	1,016	2,533	Form 4
2026-06-26	Quirk Aimee M	director	Option exercise	1,016	998	Form 4
2026-06-26	Sanchez Alejandro M	director	Option exercise	1,016	1,016	Form 4
2026-06-26	Sanchez Alejandro M	director	Option exercise	1,016	998	Form 4
2026-06-26	Sidi Zeenat	director	Option exercise	1,016	1,674	Form 4
2026-06-26	Sidi Zeenat	director	Option exercise	1,016	998	Form 4
2026-06-26	Tillage Keith Alexis	director	Option exercise	1,016	6,409	Form 4
2026-06-26	Tillage Keith Alexis	director	Option exercise	1,016	998	Form 4
2026-06-26	WHITE STEVEN GERARD	director	Option exercise	1,016	14,930	Form 4
2026-06-26	WHITE STEVEN GERARD	director	Option exercise	1,016	998	Form 4
2026-06-26	Day Rick D.	director	Option exercise	1,016	268,401	Form 4
2026-06-26	Day Rick D.	director	Option exercise	1,016	268,401	Form 4
2026-06-26	Day Rick D.	director	Option exercise	1,016	998	Form 4
2026-06-26	Ducrest John P.	director	Option exercise	1,016	14,732	Form 4
2026-06-26	Ducrest John P.	director	Disposition	1,016	13,716	Form 4
2026-06-26	Ducrest John P.	director	Option exercise	1,016	998	Form 4
2026-06-26	Folse Mark P.	director	Option exercise	1,016	54,302	Form 4
2026-06-26	Day Rick D.	director	Option exercise	1,016	998	Form 4
2026-06-26	Folse Mark P.	director	Option exercise	998	998	Form 4
2026-06-26	Hall William G.	director	Option exercise	1,016	20,990	Form 4
2026-06-26	Ducrest John P.	director	Option exercise	1,016	14,732	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

27d remaining

2026-09-174% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i