Issued 2026-09-16 at $7.26 · now $7.26 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BFLY has typically landed between $4.95 and $11.07 — a range of −31.8% to +52.5% from the issuance price $7.26.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,532 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-07-13 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($7.26) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where BFLY has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $7.26 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $7.26 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $7.19 (-1.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $5.94–$8.44
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $4.95–$11.07
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,532 windows spanning 2020-07-13 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2023-09-15 | −51.9% | −51.9% | +0.0% |
| 2023-09-13 | −49.0% | −49.0% | +0.0% |
| 2025-02-14 | −45.5% | −46.8% | +1.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2022-07-14 | +133.2% | −3.0% | +133.2% |
| 2022-07-13 | +132.7% | −2.7% | +132.7% |
| 2022-07-15 | +129.7% | −2.7% | +133.8% |
1,532 overlapping windows · 2020-07-13 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~7 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
+1.2%
n=6
Feb
33%
−0.0%
n=6
Mar
17%
−13.7%
n=6
Apr
50%
−6.0%
n=6
May
50%
+1.9%
n=6
Jun
50%
+11.8%
n=6
Jul
50%
+4.7%
n=6
Aug
43%
+4.4%
n=7
Sep
29%
+0.0%
n=7
Oct
50%
+2.4%
n=6
Nov
67%
+17.9%
n=6
Dec
50%
+4.6%
n=6
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Cashman Steve | officer | Sale | 140,112 @ $7.30 | $1.0M | −8.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,490,295 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Carlson Megan | officer | Sale | 13,804 @ $7.30 | $101K | −3.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 412,085 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Caezza Nicholas | officer | Sale | 1,709 @ $8.15 | $14K | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 305,166 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | ROBBINS LARRY | director | Sale | 582,500 @ $8.97 | $5.2M | −16.4% of holding | −17.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,964,187 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-14 | ROBBINS LARRY | director | Sale | 824,700 @ $8.70 | $7.2M | −18.9% of holding | −9.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,546,687 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Phanstiel S. Louise | director | Purchase | 115,200 @ $8.68 | $1000K | +62.2% of holding | −9.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 300,461 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | ROBBINS LARRY | director | Sale | 500,000 @ $9.24 | $4.6M | −4.1% of holding | −14.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,743,530 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | ROBBINS LARRY | director | Sale | 215,233 @ $9.54 | $2.1M | −1.7% of holding | −14.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,243,530 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | ROBBINS LARRY | director | Sale | 175,300 @ $8.86 | $1.6M | −3.9% of holding | −14.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,371,387 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Caezza Nicholas | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $9.75 | $98K | −3.2% of holding | −22.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 300,307 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | DEVIVO JOSEPH | director | Sale | 68,346 @ $10.01 | $684K | −0.9% of holding | −21.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,603,700 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | ROBBINS LARRY | director | Sale | 156,163 @ $8.10 | $1.3M | −1.2% of holding | −1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,458,763 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-31 | ROBBINS LARRY | director | Sale | 1,720,129 @ $7.39 | $12.7M | −12.0% of holding | +8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,614,926 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | Carlson Megan | officer | Sale | 68,852 @ $7.86 | $541K | −13.9% of holding | +8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 425,889 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-22 | ROTHBERG JONATHAN M | director | Sale | 496,680 @ $6.47 | $3.2M | −100.0% of holding | +36.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-22 | ROTHBERG JONATHAN M | director | Sale | 72,724 @ $6.47 | $471K | −100.0% of holding | +36.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-22 | ROTHBERG JONATHAN M | director | Sale | 54,143 @ $6.47 | $350K | −100.0% of holding | +36.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-22 | ROTHBERG JONATHAN M | director | Sale | 36,366 @ $6.47 | $235K | −100.0% of holding | +36.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-21 | ROTHBERG JONATHAN M | director | Sale | 753,320 @ $6.74 | $5.1M | −60.3% of holding | +31.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 496,680 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-20 | ROTHBERG JONATHAN M | director | Sale | 1,177,276 @ $6.61 | $7.8M | −94.2% of holding | +31.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 72,724 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-20 | DEVIVO JOSEPH | director | Sale | 211,798 @ $6.56 | $1.4M | −2.7% of holding | +31.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,672,046 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-20 | Doherty John N. | officer | Sale | 57,136 @ $6.56 | $375K | −3.9% of holding | +31.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,397,276 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-20 | Ku Victor | officer | Sale | 48,540 @ $6.56 | $318K | −4.6% of holding | +31.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,015,099 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-17 | ROTHBERG JONATHAN M | director | Sale | 1,195,857 @ $6.60 | $7.9M | −95.7% of holding | +32.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 54,143 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-16 | ROTHBERG JONATHAN M | director | Sale | 1,213,634 @ $7.09 | $8.6M | −97.1% of holding | +22.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 36,366 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-16 | ROTHBERG JONATHAN M | director | Sale | 253,867 @ $7.09 | $1.8M | −70.6% of holding | +22.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 105,881 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-15 | ROTHBERG JONATHAN M | director | Sale | 1,730,319 @ $7.32 | $12.7M | −82.8% of holding | +18.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 359,748 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-14 | ROTHBERG JONATHAN M | director | Sale | 815,632 @ $7.72 | $6.3M | −28.1% of holding | +19.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,090,067 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | DEVIVO JOSEPH | director | Sale | 204,725 @ $7.87 | $1.6M | −2.5% of holding | +8.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,883,844 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Doherty John N. | officer | Sale | 55,229 @ $7.87 | $435K | −3.7% of holding | +8.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,454,412 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Ku Victor | officer | Sale | 35,649 @ $7.87 | $281K | −3.2% of holding | +8.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,063,639 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Carlson Megan | officer | Sale | 41,303 @ $7.96 | $329K | −8.1% of holding | +5.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 465,906 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-08 | Cashman Steve | officer | Sale | 294,680 @ $4.66 | $1.4M | −15.3% of holding | +65.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,630,407 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | Cashman Steve | officer | Sale | 104,781 @ $4.96 | $520K | −5.2% of holding | +59.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,925,087 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Caezza Nicholas | officer | Sale | 1,733 @ $4.52 | $8K | −0.6% of holding | +69.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 310,307 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Carlson Megan | officer | Sale | 110,422 @ $4.75 | $524K | −17.9% of holding | −20.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 507,209 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-29 | Cashman Steve | officer | Sale | 147,518 @ $4.91 | $724K | −6.8% of holding | −13.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,029,868 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-16 | Cashman Steve | officer | Sale | 200,000 @ $5.22 | $1.0M | −8.4% of holding | −32.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,177,386 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | DEVIVO JOSEPH | director | Sale | 482,149 @ $3.71 | $1.8M | −5.7% of holding | +12.9% | +79.8% | 8,030,899 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | DEVIVO JOSEPH | director | Sale | 161,275 @ $3.71 | $599K | −1.9% of holding | +14.6% | +109.7% | 8,513,048 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Cashman Steve | officer | Sale | 42,540 @ $3.71 | $158K | −1.8% of holding | +14.6% | +109.7% | 2,377,386 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Carlson Megan | officer | Sale | 41,978 @ $3.71 | $156K | −6.4% of holding | +14.6% | +109.7% | 617,631 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Caezza Nicholas | officer | Sale | 14,209 @ $3.71 | $53K | −4.4% of holding | +14.6% | +109.7% | 312,040 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | Cashman Steve | officer | Sale | 250,000 @ $4.35 | $1.1M | −11.5% of holding | −8.3% | +74.3% | 1,931,884 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-08 | ROTHBERG JONATHAN M | director | Sale | 335,834 @ $4.18 | $1.4M | −100.0% of holding | −20.4% | +86.0% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-07 | ROTHBERG JONATHAN M | director | Sale | 452,729 @ $4.14 | $1.9M | −57.4% of holding | −19.9% | +79.5% | 335,834 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-07 | Doherty John N. | officer | Sale | 60,182 @ $3.98 | $240K | −4.6% of holding | −19.9% | +79.5% | 1,234,688 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-06 | ROTHBERG JONATHAN M | director | Sale | 351,617 @ $4.03 | $1.4M | −30.8% of holding | −18.4% | +88.3% | 788,563 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | Ku Victor | officer | Sale | 35,968 @ $3.82 | $137K | −4.2% of holding | −4.9% | +80.7% | 811,962 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-26 | ROTHBERG JONATHAN M | director | Sale | 14,911 @ $4.01 | $60K | −1.3% of holding | +11.2% | +109.9% | 1,140,180 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-24 | ROTHBERG JONATHAN M | director | Sale | 2,673 @ $4.00 | $11K | −0.2% of holding | +11.7% | +117.7% | 1,155,091 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-23 | ROTHBERG JONATHAN M | director | Sale | 44,781 @ $4.01 | $179K | −3.7% of holding | +11.5% | +118.5% | 1,157,764 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-16 | ROTHBERG JONATHAN M | director | Sale | 196,662 @ $3.14 | $617K | −100.0% of holding | +22.4% | +155.6% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-16 | ROTHBERG JONATHAN M | director | Sale | 50,360 @ $3.14 | $158K | −100.0% of holding | +22.4% | +155.6% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-16 | ROTHBERG JONATHAN M | director | Sale | 37,964 @ $3.14 | $119K | −3.1% of holding | +22.4% | +155.6% | 1,202,545 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | ROTHBERG JONATHAN M | director | Sale | 601,308 @ $3.16 | $1.9M | −75.4% of holding | +39.3% | +67.9% | 196,662 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | Phanstiel S. Louise | director | Purchase | 185,261 @ $3.08 | $571K | ownership Δ n/a | +39.3% | +67.9% | 185,261 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-12 | ROTHBERG JONATHAN M | director | Sale | 111,031 @ $3.08 | $342K | −100.0% of holding | +62.9% | +77.0% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-12 | ROTHBERG JONATHAN M | director | Sale | 82,262 @ $3.08 | $253K | −62.0% of holding | +62.9% | +77.0% | 50,360 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-11 | ROTHBERG JONATHAN M | director | Sale | 123,354 @ $3.08 | $380K | −48.2% of holding | +41.9% | +72.6% | 132,622 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
33 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | DEVIVO JOSEPH | director | Gift | 250,000 | 7,353,700 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | Neubauer Caroll H | director | Award / grant | 25,447 | 98,617 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | Edelman Elazer R | director | Award / grant | 25,447 | 392,893 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | Phanstiel S. Louise | director | Award / grant | 25,447 | 390,952 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | ROBBINS LARRY | director | Award / grant | 25,447 | 390,952 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | ROTHBERG JONATHAN M | director | Award / grant | 25,447 | 2,905,699 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | Schwartz Erica | director | Award / grant | 25,447 | 401,699 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | Neubauer Caroll H | director | Award / grant | 73,170 | 73,170 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Carlson Megan | officer | Award / grant | 97,883 | 659,609 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Caezza Nicholas | officer | Award / grant | 89,359 | 326,249 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Ku Victor | officer | Award / grant | 287,326 | 1,099,288 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | DEVIVO JOSEPH | director | Award / grant | 1,424,534 | 8,674,323 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Cashman Steve | officer | Award / grant | 488,042 | 2,419,926 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Doherty John N. | officer | Award / grant | 274,953 | 1,509,641 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-08 | Doherty John N. | officer | Award / grant | 431,623 | 1,294,870 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-08 | Doherty John N. | officer | Award / grant | 863,247 | 863,247 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-22 | Ku Victor | officer | Award / grant | 565,287 | 565,287 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-22 | Ku Victor | officer | Award / grant | 282,643 | 847,930 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-13 | ROBBINS LARRY | director | Award / grant | 80,434 | 365,505 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-13 | ROTHBERG JONATHAN M | director | Award / grant | 80,434 | 2,880,252 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-13 | Carfora Dawn | director | Award / grant | 80,434 | 377,514 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-13 | Schwartz Erica | director | Award / grant | 80,434 | 376,252 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-13 | Edelman Elazer R | director | Award / grant | 80,434 | 367,446 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-13 | Phanstiel S. Louise | director | Award / grant | 80,434 | 365,505 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-04 | Stoica Andrei G | officer | Withheld for tax | 11,470 | 1,605,341 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-03 | DEVIVO JOSEPH | director | Withheld for tax | 443,711 | 7,570,004 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-03 | Getz Heather C | director | Withheld for tax | 282,649 | 2,984,730 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-03 | Stoica Andrei G | officer | Withheld for tax | 178,130 | 1,616,811 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-01 | Stoica Andrei G | officer | Award / grant | 328,947 | 1,794,941 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-01 | DEVIVO JOSEPH | director | Award / grant | 1,185,526 | 8,013,715 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-01 | Cashman Steve | officer | Award / grant | 438,553 | 2,274,474 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-01 | Getz Heather C | director | Award / grant | 569,211 | 3,267,379 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-17 | DEVIVO JOSEPH | director | Withheld for tax | 209,867 | 6,799,354 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.