BFHBread Financial Holdings, Inc.Financial Services · Financial - Credit Servicesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $107.85 · now $107.85 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BFH has typically landed between $89.08 and $131.80 — a range of −17.4% to +22.2% from the issuance price $107.85.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($107.85) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where BFH has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $107.85 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$89.08worst · -17.4%$131.8best · +22.2%
  • now $107.85 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $109.02 (+1.1%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $100.15–$117.89
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $89.08–$131.8
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−77.5%−77.5%+2.6%
2020-02-19−75.0%−77.7%+1.7%
2020-02-20−73.3%−78.1%+0.0%
3 best
2020-04-03+71.2%+0.0%+107.3%
2020-10-28+71.0%+0.0%+72.1%
2020-03-18+67.5%+0.0%+85.9%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
−1.8%
n=20
Feb
50%
+0.4%
n=20
Mar
60%
−2.1%
n=20
Apr
60%
+4.6%
n=20
May
65%
+2.4%
n=20
Jun
60%
+0.3%
n=20
Jul
50%
+5.4%
n=20
Aug
50%
−1.1%
n=20
Sep
45%
−1.3%
n=20
Oct
60%
+0.4%
n=20
Nov
70%
+5.8%
n=20
Dec
65%
+1.7%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$113$542026-09-14: 1 insider purchase, $2K — McCarthy Dennis James2026-07-28: 1 insider sale, $297K — Lakhwara Praniti2026-05-29: 3 insider sales, $1.3M — Andretta Ralph J …2026-05-21: 1 insider purchase, $60K — Fawcett John J.2026-04-24: 1 insider sale, $875K — BALLOU ROGER H2026-04: 1 open-market sale, $875K2026-05: 1 open-market purchase, $60K2026-05: 3 open-market sales, $1.3M2026-07: 1 open-market sale, $297K2026-09: 1 open-market purchase, $2K↑ buys↓ salesofficer McCarthy Dennis James — Purchase on 2026-09-14, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Lakhwara Praniti — Sale on 2026-07-28, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Andretta Ralph J — Sale on 2026-05-29, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Andretta Ralph J — Sale on 2026-05-29, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Andretta Ralph J — Sale on 2026-05-29, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Fawcett John J. — Purchase on 2026-05-21, filed 1 day after the tradedirector BALLOU ROGER H — Sale on 2026-04-24, filed 3 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-14McCarthy Dennis JamesofficerPurchase16 @ $108.14$2K+0.1% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open29,546Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-28Lakhwara PranitidirectorSale2,802 @ $106.12$297K−38.6% of holding−3.6%not yet — horizon still open4,458Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-29Andretta Ralph JdirectorSale12,500 @ $89.17$1.1M−2.1% of holding+22.7%not yet — horizon still open583,241Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-29Andretta Ralph JdirectorSale1,500 @ $88.23$132K−0.3% of holding+22.7%not yet — horizon still open595,741Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-29Andretta Ralph JdirectorSale1,000 @ $89.57$90K−0.2% of holding+22.7%not yet — horizon still open582,241Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-21Fawcett John J.directorPurchase698 @ $86.43$60K+6.8% of holding+22.3%not yet — horizon still open11,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-24BALLOU ROGER HdirectorSale9,687 @ $90.32$875K−24.4% of holding−2.4%not yet — horizon still open30,079Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-07-30Fawcett John J.directorPurchase927 @ $61.79$57K+10.0% of holding+6.0%+9.0%10,202Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-30Fawcett John J.directorPurchase100 @ $61.80$6K+1.0% of holding+6.0%+9.0%10,302Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

142 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-15Gerspach John CdirectorAward / grant73049,574Form 4
2026-07-15Gerspach John CdirectorAward / grant73049,574Form 4
2026-06-15St Clair JoycedirectorAward / grant1,63811,307Form 4
2026-06-15THERIAULT TIMOTHY JdirectorAward / grant1,63827,384Form 4
2026-06-15Fawcett John J.directorAward / grant1,63812,638Form 4
2026-06-15TURNEY SHAREN JdirectorAward / grant1,63823,174Form 4
2026-06-15Gerspach John CdirectorAward / grant1,63848,844Form 4
2026-06-15Lakhwara PranitidirectorAward / grant1,6387,260Form 4
2026-06-15Natarajan RajeshdirectorAward / grant1,63821,442Form 4
2026-06-15Tucker Laurie AnnedirectorAward / grant1,63835,459Form 4
2026-06-15THERIAULT TIMOTHY JdirectorAward / grant1,63827,384Form 4
2026-06-15Gerspach John CdirectorAward / grant1,63848,844Form 4
2026-06-15TURNEY SHAREN JdirectorAward / grant1,63823,174Form 4
2026-06-15Tucker Laurie AnnedirectorAward / grant1,63835,459Form 4
2026-06-15St Clair JoycedirectorAward / grant1,63811,307Form 4
2026-06-15Fawcett John J.directorAward / grant1,63812,638Form 4
2026-06-15Natarajan RajeshdirectorAward / grant1,63821,442Form 4
2026-06-15Lakhwara PranitidirectorAward / grant1,6387,260Form 4
2026-04-15Gerspach John CdirectorAward / grant48347,206Form 4
2026-04-15Gerspach John CdirectorAward / grant48347,206Form 4
2026-02-19BALLOU ROGER HdirectorGift1,35139,766Form 4
2026-02-18Andretta Ralph JdirectorWithheld for tax5,326597,241Form 4
2026-02-18Driscoll Allegra SofficerWithheld for tax2,56459,968Form 4
2026-02-18Beberman Perry SofficerWithheld for tax2,014121,570Form 4
2026-02-18Greer Valerie EofficerWithheld for tax2,003155,352Form 4
2026-02-18McConnaughey Tammy MofficerWithheld for tax1,606123,320Form 4
2026-02-18Motes Joseph L IIIofficerWithheld for tax1,470129,617Form 4
2026-02-18Campbell Jonathan BryanofficerWithheld for tax1,31037,149Form 4
2026-02-17Andretta Ralph JdirectorWithheld for tax56,858602,567Form 4
2026-02-17Beberman Perry SofficerWithheld for tax43,007123,584Form 4
2026-02-17Greer Valerie EofficerWithheld for tax23,834157,355Form 4
2026-02-17McConnaughey Tammy MofficerWithheld for tax17,861124,926Form 4
2026-02-17Motes Joseph L IIIofficerWithheld for tax16,918131,087Form 4
2026-02-17Campbell Jonathan BryanofficerWithheld for tax2,95138,459Form 4
2026-02-17Driscoll Allegra SofficerWithheld for tax2,78762,532Form 4
2026-02-17Beberman Perry SofficerAward / grant5,543166,591Form 4
2026-02-17Driscoll Allegra SofficerAward / grant7,10954,656Form 4
2026-02-17Driscoll Allegra SofficerAward / grant10,66365,319Form 4
2026-02-17Andretta Ralph JdirectorAward / grant42,122577,119Form 4
2026-02-17Andretta Ralph JdirectorAward / grant63,183640,302Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.