BFCBank First CorporationFinancial Services · Banks - Regionalas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $150.54 · now $150.54 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BFC has typically landed between $136.86 and $169.77 — a range of −9.1% to +12.8% from the issuance price $150.54.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($150.54) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where BFC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $150.54 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$136.86worst · -9.1%$169.77best · +12.8%
  • now $150.54 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $152.38 (+1.2%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $146.42–$158.33
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $136.86–$169.77
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-12-31−44.9%−44.9%+0.0%
2009-01-02−44.9%−44.9%+0.0%
2009-01-05−44.9%−44.9%+0.0%
3 best
2009-03-16+65.3%−1.5%+65.3%
2009-03-13+65.3%−1.5%+65.3%
2009-03-12+65.3%−1.5%+65.3%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
45%
−1.0%
n=20
Feb
65%
+0.1%
n=20
Mar
80%
+3.6%
n=20
Apr
60%
+2.8%
n=20
May
60%
+1.8%
n=20
Jun
75%
+3.0%
n=20
Jul
60%
−0.1%
n=20
Aug
45%
−0.8%
n=20
Sep
50%
+1.2%
n=20
Oct
65%
+0.6%
n=20
Nov
65%
+3.6%
n=20
Dec
50%
+0.6%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$158$1182026-09-11: 1 insider sale, $287K — Van Sistine Peter J.2026-08-17: 1 insider purchase, $161K — Pearson Tracy C2026-04-22: 1 insider purchase, $63K — Sprang Todd A.2026-04-21: 1 insider purchase, $32K — Stayer-Suprick Michael S2026-02-11: 1 insider sale, $1.2M — Eldred Steven M2026-02-06: 1 insider sale, $1.2M — Eldred Steven M2026-01-27: 1 insider purchase, $21K — Sprang Todd A.2025-08-19: 1 insider purchase, $50K — Stayer-Suprick Michael S2025-08: 1 open-market purchase, $50K2026-01: 1 open-market purchase, $21K2026-02: 2 open-market sales, $2.4M2026-04: 2 open-market purchases, $94K2026-08: 1 open-market purchase, $161K2026-09: 1 open-market sale, $287K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Van Sistine Peter J. — Sale on 2026-09-11, filed same daydirector Pearson Tracy C — Purchase on 2026-08-17, filed 7 days after the tradedirector Sprang Todd A. — Purchase on 2026-04-22, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Stayer-Suprick Michael S — Purchase on 2026-04-21, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Eldred Steven M — Sale on 2026-02-11, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Eldred Steven M — Sale on 2026-02-06, filed 6 days after the tradedirector Sprang Todd A. — Purchase on 2026-01-27, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Stayer-Suprick Michael S — Purchase on 2025-08-19, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-11Van Sistine Peter J.directorSale1,848 @ $155.57$287K−19.5% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open7,640Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-17Pearson Tracy CdirectorPurchase1,024 @ $156.97$161Kownership Δ n/a−1.6%not yet — horizon still open1,024Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade
2026-04-22Sprang Todd A.directorPurchase450 @ $138.96$63K+28.8% of holding−2.0%not yet — horizon still open2,015Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-21Stayer-Suprick Michael SdirectorPurchase225 @ $140.04$32K+5.1% of holding−3.0%not yet — horizon still open4,597Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-11Eldred Steven MdirectorSale8,000 @ $151.95$1.2M−6.0% of holding−3.6%−4.4%125,680Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-06Eldred Steven MdirectorSale8,000 @ $145.02$1.2M−5.6% of holding−7.8%−10.8%133,680Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade
2026-01-27Sprang Todd A.directorPurchase150 @ $141.06$21K+14.9% of holding+2.1%+5.1%1,158Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-08-19Stayer-Suprick Michael SdirectorPurchase410 @ $122.67$50K+11.5% of holding+2.6%+9.5%3,965Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-04MCCONEGHY DANIEL CdirectorPurchase380 @ $105.72$40K+23.5% of holding+0.5%+16.4%2,000Form 4 · filed 15 days after the trade
2025-02-19Stayer-Suprick Michael SdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $102.07$102K+49.1% of holding+7.8%+19.1%3,035Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

40 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-30Eldred Steven MdirectorGift1,00310,284Form 4
2026-04-09LeMahieu Kevin M.officerGift1,78522,021Form 4
2026-03-06Molepske Michael B.directorAward / grant4,47057,398Form 4
2026-03-06McFarlane Timothy J.directorAward / grant2,79368,646Form 4
2026-03-06LeMahieu Kevin M.officerAward / grant2,31623,806Form 4
2026-03-06Molepske Michael B.directorWithheld for tax2,27755,121Form 4
2026-03-06Krepline Jason VofficerAward / grant1,38033,449Form 4
2026-03-06Dvorak Kelly MofficerAward / grant1,0299,658Form 4
2026-03-06Krepline Jason VofficerWithheld for tax74532,704Form 4
2026-03-06Maples Phillip RdirectorAward / grant4074,251Form 4
2026-03-06Van Sistine Peter J.directorAward / grant4079,488Form 4
2026-03-06Gregorski Robert D.directorAward / grant40739,010Form 4
2026-03-06Stayer-Suprick Michael SdirectorAward / grant4074,372Form 4
2026-03-06Sprang Todd A.directorAward / grant4071,561Form 4
2026-03-06Johnson Stephen EdirectorAward / grant40727,690Form 4
2026-03-06Bourbulas Mary KaydirectorAward / grant4078,126Form 4
2026-03-06MCCONEGHY DANIEL CdirectorAward / grant4072,407Form 4
2026-03-06Davis Erin AdirectorAward / grant4072,927Form 4
2026-03-06Dvorak Kelly MofficerWithheld for tax3979,261Form 4
2026-02-18Molepske Michael B.directorGift1,45047,449Form 4
2025-09-03LeMahieu Kevin M.officerGift2,00021,438Form 4
2025-05-22Molepske Michael B.directorGift2,14448,899Form 4
2025-03-03Molepske Michael B.directorAward / grant4,37755,708Form 4
2025-03-03Molepske Michael B.directorWithheld for tax2,78052,928Form 4
2025-03-03McFarlane Timothy J.directorAward / grant2,73665,853Form 4
2025-03-03LeMahieu Kevin M.officerAward / grant2,26824,319Form 4
2025-03-03Krepline Jason VofficerAward / grant1,35331,973Form 4
2025-03-03LeMahieu Kevin M.officerWithheld for tax1,19023,129Form 4
2025-03-03Dvorak Kelly MofficerAward / grant1,0088,511Form 4
2025-03-03Krepline Jason VofficerWithheld for tax94631,027Form 4
2025-03-03Kohler Laura EdirectorAward / grant5205,373Form 4
2025-03-03Van Sistine Peter J.directorAward / grant5208,298Form 4
2025-03-03Maples Phillip RdirectorAward / grant5203,844Form 4
2025-03-03Davis Erin AdirectorAward / grant5202,520Form 4
2025-03-03MCCONEGHY DANIEL CdirectorAward / grant5201,620Form 4
2025-03-03Johnson Stephen EdirectorAward / grant52027,283Form 4
2025-03-03Heun Judy LdirectorAward / grant5203,880Form 4
2025-03-03Gregorski Robert D.directorAward / grant52038,603Form 4
2025-03-03Bourbulas Mary KaydirectorAward / grant5207,569Form 4
2025-03-03Stayer-Suprick Michael SdirectorAward / grant5203,555Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.