Issued 2026-09-16 at $12.36 · now $12.36 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BETR has typically landed between $8.40 and $17.88 — a range of −32.1% to +44.7% from the issuance price $12.36.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,327 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-04-30 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($12.36) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where BETR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $12.36 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $12.36 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $12.35 (-0.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $11.53–$13.16
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $8.4–$17.88
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,327 windows spanning 2021-04-30 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2023-08-08 | −98.6% | −98.6% | +0.0% |
| 2023-08-07 | −98.6% | −98.6% | +0.0% |
| 2023-08-09 | −98.4% | −98.6% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2023-06-29 | +374.4% | −0.8% | +374.4% |
| 2023-06-27 | +345.4% | +0.0% | +345.4% |
| 2023-06-30 | +322.7% | −0.8% | +374.4% |
1,327 overlapping windows · 2021-04-30 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
40%
−3.4%
n=5
Feb
60%
+1.8%
n=5
Mar
20%
−1.1%
n=5
Apr
60%
+5.4%
n=5
May
17%
−9.0%
n=6
Jun
33%
+4.2%
n=6
Jul
67%
+56.9%
n=6
Aug
50%
−16.9%
n=6
Sep
33%
+17.0%
n=6
Oct
60%
+3.5%
n=5
Nov
60%
−7.0%
n=5
Dec
40%
+0.5%
n=5
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Smith Chad M. | officer | Sale | 3,307 @ $12.85 | $43K | −66.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,693 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | FRATER HUGH R | director | Purchase | 5,150 @ $24.34 | $125K | +437.9% of holding | −0.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,326 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-22 | Talwar Harit | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $25.34 | $127K | +12.6% of holding | +3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 44,698 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Garg Vishal | director | Purchase | 15,600 @ $24.89 | $388K | +15.2% of holding | +3.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 118,260 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-20 | Garg Vishal | director | Purchase | 15,000 @ $25.00 | $375K | +17.1% of holding | +7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 102,660 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-20 | Garg Vishal | director | Purchase | 600 @ $24.99 | $15K | +0.7% of holding | +7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 87,660 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-18 | Garg Vishal | director | Purchase | 6,510 @ $25.00 | $163K | +8.1% of holding | +8.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 87,060 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-18 | Garg Vishal | director | Purchase | 3,900 @ $24.74 | $96K | +5.2% of holding | +8.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 78,693 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-18 | Garg Vishal | director | Purchase | 3,333 @ $24.71 | $82K | +4.7% of holding | +8.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 74,793 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-18 | Garg Vishal | director | Purchase | 1,257 @ $24.99 | $31K | +1.6% of holding | +8.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 80,550 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-18 | Garg Vishal | director | Purchase | 600 @ $24.97 | $15K | +0.8% of holding | +8.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 79,293 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-12 | Advani Loveen | officer | Purchase | 400 @ $30.55 | $12K | +363.6% of holding | −20.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 510 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Advani Loveen | officer | Purchase | 100 @ $31.25 | $3K | +1000.0% of holding | −21.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 110 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-08 | Talwar Harit | director | Purchase | 3,000 @ $30.43 | $91K | +8.2% of holding | −16.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 39,698 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-08 | Smith Chad M. | officer | Sale | 1,366 @ $29.81 | $41K | −5.8% of holding | −16.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 22,150 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-08 | Smith Chad M. | officer | Sale | 971 @ $30.51 | $30K | −4.4% of holding | −16.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,179 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-08 | Smith Chad M. | officer | Sale | 118 @ $31.38 | $4K | −0.6% of holding | −16.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,061 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-07 | Garg Vishal | director | Purchase | 6,483 @ $30.00 | $194K | +10.0% of holding | −17.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 71,460 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-07 | Garg Vishal | director | Purchase | 100 @ $29.95 | $3K | +0.2% of holding | −17.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 64,977 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-10 | Framework Ventures IV L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 54,384 @ $32.96 | $1.8M | +5.7% of holding | −14.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,006,696 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-09 | Talwar Harit | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $32.89 | $164K | +15.8% of holding | −15.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 36,698 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-08 | Garg Vishal | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $35.05 | $351K | +18.2% of holding | −21.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 64,877 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-08 | Orn Jonsson Sigurgeir | officer | Purchase | 979 @ $36.09 | $35K | +38.9% of holding | −21.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,497 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-08 | Talwar Harit | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $33.34 | $33K | +3.3% of holding | −21.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 31,698 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-08 | MENON BHASKAR | director | Purchase | 590 @ $34.13 | $20K | +39.3% of holding | −21.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,090 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-08 | Orn Jonsson Sigurgeir | officer | Purchase | 21 @ $36.05 | $757 | +0.8% of holding | −21.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,518 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-08 | Advani Loveen | officer | Purchase | 10 @ $35.50 | $355 | ownership Δ n/a | −21.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 10 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-02 | Talwar Harit | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $35.24 | $176K | +19.5% of holding | +1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,698 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-25 | Garg Vishal | director | Purchase | 2,217 @ $29.90 | $66K | +4.2% of holding | +26.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 54,877 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-24 | Garg Vishal | director | Purchase | 6,701 @ $28.37 | $190K | +15.9% of holding | +35.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 48,761 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-24 | Garg Vishal | director | Purchase | 2,900 @ $30.06 | $87K | +5.8% of holding | +35.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 52,660 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-24 | Garg Vishal | director | Purchase | 999 @ $29.08 | $29K | +2.0% of holding | +35.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 49,760 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-23 | Framework Ventures IV L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 40,000 @ $29.60 | $1.2M | +4.4% of holding | +49.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 952,312 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-23 | Garg Vishal | director | Purchase | 9,850 @ $29.56 | $291K | +30.6% of holding | +49.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 42,060 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-23 | Garg Vishal | director | Purchase | 750 @ $28.50 | $21K | +2.4% of holding | +49.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 32,210 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-19 | Framework Ventures IV L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 53,000 @ $28.48 | $1.5M | +6.2% of holding | +56.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 912,312 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-17 | Smith Chad M. | officer | Sale | 2,374 @ $28.51 | $68K | −11.3% of holding | +14.7% | −73.4% | 18,575 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-16 | Framework Ventures IV L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 25,000 @ $29.55 | $739K | +3.0% of holding | +28.4% | −69.3% | 859,312 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-16 | Smith Chad M. | officer | Sale | 2,567 @ $29.80 | $77K | −10.9% of holding | +28.4% | −69.3% | 20,949 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-13 | Framework Ventures IV L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 29,494 @ $34.12 | $1.0M | +3.7% of holding | −4.3% | −78.4% | 834,312 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-11 | Framework Ventures IV L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 21,598 @ $39.73 | $858K | +2.8% of holding | −18.7% | −79.6% | 804,818 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-09 | Framework Ventures IV L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 10,000 @ $35.46 | $355K | +1.8% of holding | −1.8% | −75.4% | 571,908 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Smith Chad M. | officer | Sale | 5,004 @ $30.01 | $150K | −23.2% of holding | −5.7% | −71.2% | 16,586 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Smith Chad M. | officer | Sale | 996 @ $30.39 | $30K | −6.0% of holding | −5.7% | −71.2% | 15,590 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | Tuffin Paula | officer | Sale | 4,987 @ $28.46 | $142K | −9.9% of holding | +0.2% | −67.5% | 45,518 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | Tuffin Paula | officer | Sale | 3,031 @ $29.02 | $88K | −6.7% of holding | +0.2% | −67.5% | 42,487 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Smith Chad M. | officer | Sale | 2,056 @ $27.98 | $58K | −9.5% of holding | +32.0% | −60.3% | 19,534 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-03 | Smith Chad M. | officer | Sale | 3,097 @ $27.06 | $84K | −14.3% of holding | +21.2% | −48.5% | 18,493 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-15 | Smith Chad M. | officer | Sale | 4,880 @ $36.50 | $178K | −17.7% of holding | −13.5% | −45.1% | 22,710 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-15 | Smith Chad M. | officer | Sale | 1,120 @ $37.58 | $42K | −4.9% of holding | −13.5% | −45.1% | 21,590 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-12 | Tuffin Paula | officer | Sale | 7,698 @ $38.52 | $297K | −22.5% of holding | −23.6% | −45.7% | 26,500 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-12 | Tuffin Paula | officer | Sale | 302 @ $39.16 | $12K | −1.1% of holding | −23.6% | −45.7% | 26,198 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-06 | Smith Chad M. | officer | Sale | 2,843 @ $35.15 | $100K | −9.3% of holding | −25.8% | −36.1% | 27,590 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-30 | MENON BHASKAR | director | Purchase | 1,500 @ $33.94 | $51K | ownership Δ n/a | −8.8% | −22.2% | 1,500 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | Smith Chad M. | officer | Sale | 5,390 @ $40.34 | $217K | −16.0% of holding | −9.4% | −40.9% | 28,200 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-15 | Smith Chad M. | officer | Sale | 610 @ $41.75 | $25K | −2.2% of holding | −9.4% | −40.9% | 27,590 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-12 | Smith Chad M. | officer | Sale | 2,378 @ $47.67 | $113K | −6.6% of holding | −11.2% | −40.7% | 33,590 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Tuffin Paula | officer | Sale | 5,300 @ $46.00 | $244K | −13.1% of holding | −21.0% | −50.8% | 35,044 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Tuffin Paula | officer | Sale | 1,888 @ $47.38 | $89K | −5.4% of holding | −21.0% | −50.8% | 33,156 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Tuffin Paula | officer | Sale | 712 @ $48.22 | $34K | −2.1% of holding | −21.0% | −50.8% | 32,444 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
211 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | FEIERSTEIN BARRY | officer | Option exercise | 18,750 | 18,750 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Smith Chad M. | officer | Option exercise | 10,000 | 22,936 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Smith Chad M. | officer | Award / grant | 11,243 | 11,243 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Tuffin Paula | officer | Award / grant | 6,132 | 44,039 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Smith Chad M. | officer | Option exercise | 10,000 | 25,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Smith Chad M. | officer | Option exercise | 5,000 | 35,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Smith Chad M. | officer | Option exercise | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Orn Jonsson Sigurgeir | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,995 | 7,906 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Orn Jonsson Sigurgeir | officer | Option exercise | 3,906 | 9,901 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Orn Jonsson Sigurgeir | officer | Option exercise | 3,906 | 50,781 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-20 | Massenet Arnaud | director | Award / grant | 6,416 | 6,416 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-20 | Barse David Michael | director | Award / grant | 6,851 | 6,851 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-20 | FRATER HUGH R | director | Award / grant | 6,851 | 6,851 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-20 | Talwar Harit | director | Award / grant | 9,787 | 9,787 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-20 | MENON BHASKAR | director | Award / grant | 10,113 | 10,113 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-20 | Farello Michael J. | director | Award / grant | 6,090 | 6,090 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-20 | Narasimhan Prabhu | director | Award / grant | 5,437 | 5,437 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Advani Loveen | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,510 | 13,824 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Advani Loveen | officer | Option exercise | 9,167 | 91,666 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Advani Loveen | officer | Option exercise | 9,167 | 16,334 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Advani Loveen | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,510 | 7,167 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Advani Loveen | officer | Option exercise | 9,167 | 9,677 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Advani Loveen | officer | Option exercise | 9,167 | 100,833 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Barse David Michael | director | Option exercise | 10,389 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Barse David Michael | director | Option exercise | 10,389 | 10,389 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | FRATER HUGH R | director | Option exercise | 1,176 | 1,176 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | FRATER HUGH R | director | Option exercise | 1,176 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Talwar Harit | director | Option exercise | 20,191 | 64,889 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Talwar Harit | director | Option exercise | 20,191 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | MENON BHASKAR | director | Option exercise | 12,388 | 14,478 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | MENON BHASKAR | director | Option exercise | 12,388 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Farello Michael J. | director | Option exercise | 11,327 | 11,327 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Farello Michael J. | director | Option exercise | 11,327 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Narasimhan Prabhu | director | Option exercise | 11,327 | 71,242 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Narasimhan Prabhu | director | Option exercise | 11,327 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Massenet Arnaud | director | Option exercise | 11,327 | 39,170 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Massenet Arnaud | director | Option exercise | 11,327 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | Smith Chad M. | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,545 | 2,455 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | Smith Chad M. | officer | Option exercise | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Smith Chad M. | officer | Option exercise | 5,000 | 40,000 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.