Issued 2026-09-16 at $20.26 · now $20.26 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BETA has typically landed between $13.35 and $27.21 — a range of −34.1% to +34.3% from the issuance price $20.26.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
196 overlapping 1 month windows · 2025-11-04 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($20.26) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where BETA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $20.26 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $20.26 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $20.07 (-0.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $17.5–$22.65
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $13.35–$27.21
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 196 windows spanning 2025-11-04 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-01-06 | −46.5% | −46.5% | +0.0% |
| 2026-01-07 | −42.5% | −45.3% | +0.0% |
| 2026-01-08 | −41.4% | −44.7% | +0.2% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-07-17 | +44.1% | −4.5% | +47.7% |
| 2026-07-15 | +41.6% | −8.5% | +41.6% |
| 2026-07-16 | +40.9% | −3.9% | +48.8% |
196 overlapping windows · 2025-11-04 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Stone Michael Robert | director | Purchase | 13,125 @ $19.19 | $252K | +0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,792,994 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Stone Michael Robert | director | Purchase | 12,820 @ $19.58 | $251K | +0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,779,869 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Clark Kyle | director | Sale | 23,205 @ $25.22 | $585K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 5,235,936 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-20 | Clark Kyle | director | Sale | 30,000 @ $25.26 | $758K | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 5,259,141 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Clark Kyle | director | Sale | 30,000 @ $26.74 | $802K | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 5,289,141 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Clark Kyle | director | Sale | 30,000 @ $26.06 | $782K | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 5,319,141 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-17 | Clark Kyle | director | Sale | 30,000 @ $25.08 | $752K | −0.6% of holding | −18.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,349,141 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Clark Kyle | director | Sale | 17,800 @ $24.66 | $439K | −0.3% of holding | −14.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,379,141 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Clark Kyle | director | Sale | 30,000 @ $25.42 | $763K | −0.6% of holding | −19.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,396,941 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Clark Kyle | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $23.47 | $352K | −0.3% of holding | −9.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,426,941 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Clark Kyle | director | Sale | 17,005 @ $24.46 | $416K | −0.3% of holding | −17.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,441,941 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-10 | Clark Kyle | director | Sale | 15,891 @ $24.24 | $385K | −0.3% of holding | −13.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,458,946 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Clark Kyle | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $23.25 | $349K | −0.3% of holding | −9.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,474,837 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-16 | Clark Kyle | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $17.52 | $88K | −0.1% of holding | +37.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,489,837 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Clark Kyle | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $18.42 | $276K | −0.3% of holding | +38.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,494,837 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-14 | Clark Kyle | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $18.13 | $272K | −0.3% of holding | +27.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,509,837 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-13 | Clark Kyle | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $17.48 | $262K | −0.3% of holding | +38.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,524,837 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Clark Kyle | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $17.93 | $269K | −0.3% of holding | +5.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,539,837 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Clark Kyle | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $17.41 | $261K | −0.3% of holding | +8.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,554,837 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | Clark Kyle | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $16.60 | $249K | −0.3% of holding | +5.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,569,837 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-29 | Clark Kyle | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $16.38 | $246K | −0.3% of holding | +5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,584,837 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-26 | Clark Kyle | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $16.51 | $248K | −0.3% of holding | +8.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,599,837 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-25 | Clark Kyle | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $15.79 | $237K | −0.3% of holding | +11.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,614,837 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Clark Kyle | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $15.83 | $237K | −0.3% of holding | +15.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,629,837 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-23 | Clark Kyle | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $16.01 | $240K | −0.3% of holding | +15.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,644,837 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-23 | Clark Kyle | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $16.01 | $240K | −0.3% of holding | +15.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,644,837 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-22 | Clark Kyle | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $15.74 | $236K | −0.3% of holding | +16.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,659,837 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | Clark Kyle | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $15.74 | $236K | −0.3% of holding | +16.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,659,837 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Clark Kyle | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $15.78 | $237K | −0.3% of holding | +21.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,674,837 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Clark Kyle | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $15.78 | $237K | −0.3% of holding | +21.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,674,837 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | Clark Kyle | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $16.05 | $241K | −0.3% of holding | +24.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,689,837 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Clark Kyle | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $15.89 | $238K | −0.3% of holding | +13.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,704,837 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | Stone Michael Robert | director | Purchase | 17,135 @ $14.59 | $250K | +1.0% of holding | +8.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,767,049 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Clark Kyle | director | Sale | 67,296 @ $18.12 | $1.2M | −8.2% of holding | −3.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 748,915 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Donovan Sean | director | Sale | 19,008 @ $18.12 | $344K | −9.7% of holding | −3.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 176,195 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Churchill David Lawrence | director | Sale | 18,981 @ $18.12 | $344K | −3.3% of holding | −3.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 552,647 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Cueto Herman | officer | Sale | 18,586 @ $18.12 | $337K | −17.0% of holding | −3.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 90,465 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Dunkiel Brian | officer | Sale | 9,684 @ $18.12 | $175K | −6.8% of holding | −3.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 132,241 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Clark Kyle | director | Sale | 4,965 @ $18.12 | $90K | −9.1% of holding | −3.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 49,746 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Hunter Mark William | officer | Sale | 370 @ $18.12 | $7K | −2.5% of holding | −3.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,355 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Churchill David Lawrence | director | Sale | 38 @ $18.12 | $689 | −1.0% of holding | −3.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,602 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-05 | DAVIS CHARLES A | director | Purchase | 2,941,177 @ $32.98 | $97.0M | +20.0% of holding | −24.1% | −58.7% | 17,646,445 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-05 | Kamen Dean | director | Purchase | 50,000 @ $34.00 | $1.7M | ownership Δ n/a | −24.1% | −58.7% | 50,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-05 | Cueto Herman | officer | Purchase | 4,167 @ $34.00 | $142K | +26.6% of holding | −24.1% | −58.7% | 19,858 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-05 | Churchill David Lawrence | director | Purchase | 1,500 @ $34.00 | $51K | ownership Δ n/a | −24.1% | −58.7% | 1,500 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-05 | Dunkiel Brian | officer | Purchase | 1,500 @ $34.00 | $51K | +3.0% of holding | −24.1% | −58.7% | 51,216 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-05 | McConville James | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $34.00 | $34K | ownership Δ n/a | −24.1% | −58.7% | 1,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-05 | Hunter Mark William | officer | Purchase | 588 @ $34.00 | $20K | +6.3% of holding | −24.1% | −58.7% | 9,994 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
57 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Clark Kyle | director | Gift | 10,000 | 738,915 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Stone Michael Robert | director | Award / grant | 7,142 | 8,213 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Slattery John S. | director | Award / grant | 7,142 | 274,658 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | ROTHBLATT MARTINE A | director | Award / grant | 7,142 | 8,213 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | McConville James | director | Award / grant | 7,142 | 9,213 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | DAVIS CHARLES A | director | Award / grant | 7,142 | 8,213 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | ABELE JOHN E | director | Award / grant | 7,142 | 8,213 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | ABELE JOHN E | director | Other acquisition | 61,718 | 10,348,225 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-14 | Churchill David Lawrence | director | Award / grant | 35,491 | 571,628 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-14 | Hunter Mark William | officer | Award / grant | 946 | 14,725 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-14 | Cueto Herman | officer | Award / grant | 35,491 | 109,051 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-14 | Clark Kyle | director | Award / grant | 141,964 | 816,211 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-14 | Clark Kyle | director | Award / grant | 14,196 | 54,711 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-14 | Dunkiel Brian | officer | Award / grant | 17,982 | 141,925 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-14 | Churchill David Lawrence | director | Award / grant | 98 | 3,640 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-14 | Donovan Sean | director | Award / grant | 35,491 | 195,203 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-30 | Churchill David Lawrence | director | Award / grant | 47,321 | 536,137 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-30 | Clark Kyle | director | Award / grant | 18,928 | 40,515 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-30 | Cueto Herman | officer | Award / grant | 47,321 | 73,560 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-30 | Slattery John S. | director | Award / grant | 1,071 | 267,516 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-30 | Donovan Sean | director | Award / grant | 47,321 | 159,712 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-30 | Dunkiel Brian | officer | Award / grant | 47,321 | 123,943 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-30 | McConville James | director | Award / grant | 1,071 | 2,071 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-30 | ABELE JOHN E | director | Award / grant | 1,071 | 1,071 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-30 | Stone Michael Robert | director | Award / grant | 1,071 | 1,071 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-30 | ROTHBLATT MARTINE A | director | Award / grant | 1,071 | 1,071 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-30 | Hunter Mark William | officer | Award / grant | 3,785 | 13,779 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-30 | Kamen Dean | director | Award / grant | 1,071 | 51,071 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-30 | DAVIS CHARLES A | director | Award / grant | 1,071 | 1,071 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-30 | Churchill David Lawrence | director | Award / grant | 964 | 3,542 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-30 | Clark Kyle | director | Award / grant | 189,285 | 674,247 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | Dunkiel Brian | officer | Option exercise | 6,544 | 76,622 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | Dunkiel Brian | officer | Option exercise | 6,544 | 262,799 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-07 | Clark Kyle | director | Award / grant | 244,379 | 484,962 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-07 | Slattery John S. | director | Award / grant | 203,648 | 266,445 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-07 | Churchill David Lawrence | director | Award / grant | 53,965 | 488,816 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-07 | Churchill David Lawrence | director | Award / grant | 1,078 | 2,578 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-07 | Clark Kyle | director | Award / grant | 21,587 | 21,587 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-07 | Cueto Herman | officer | Award / grant | 6,381 | 26,239 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-07 | Donovan Sean | director | Award / grant | 53,965 | 112,391 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.