BENFranklin Resources, Inc.Financial Services · Asset Managementas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $32.72 · now $32.72 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BEN has typically landed between $28.63 and $38.37 — a range of −12.5% to +17.3% from the issuance price $32.72.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($32.72) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where BEN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $32.72 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$28.63worst · -12.5%$38.37best · +17.3%
  • now $32.72 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $32.75 (+0.1%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $30.59–$34.9
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $28.63–$38.37
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-26−45.2%−45.2%+0.0%
2008-09-25−42.0%−42.0%+3.0%
2008-09-24−41.2%−41.2%+4.0%
3 best
2009-03-06+53.7%+0.0%+56.1%
2009-03-05+53.1%−1.9%+53.1%
2009-03-09+43.9%+0.0%+52.9%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$16.9B
market cap
$1.34
EPS (TTM)
24.2
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-31
next earnings
Revenue$8.8B
'20'25
Net income$525M
'20'25
Free cash flow$912M
'20'25
Net margin · by yr6.0%
'20'25
ROE · by yr4.3%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr1.10
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 69 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $32.72$20.91$36.04
  • DCF (intrinsic)$25.23
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 16.4× · n=69$21.95
  • Analyst target · range $34.00–$35.00$34.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$32.72

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
44%
+0.1%
n=18
Feb
53%
−0.4%
n=19
Mar
53%
+1.0%
n=19
Apr
58%
+1.4%
n=19
May
58%
+0.8%
n=19
Jun
53%
+0.4%
n=19
Jul
68%
+4.2%
n=19
Aug
47%
−2.5%
n=19
Sep
37%
−2.5%
n=19
Oct
61%
+0.3%
n=18
Nov
72%
+4.5%
n=18
Dec
50%
+0.7%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$36$202025-11-20: 1 insider purchase, $1.1M — JOHNSON CHARLES B2025-11-18: 1 insider purchase, $1.1M — JOHNSON CHARLES B2025-11: 2 open-market purchases, $2.1M↑ buys↓ salestenPercentOwner JOHNSON CHARLES B — Purchase on 2025-11-20, filed 1 day after the tradetenPercentOwner JOHNSON CHARLES B — Purchase on 2025-11-18, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2025-11-20JOHNSON CHARLES BtenPercentOwnerPurchase50,000 @ $21.20$1.1M+0.1% of holding+10.8%+38.1%90,137,677Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-18JOHNSON CHARLES BtenPercentOwnerPurchase50,000 @ $21.49$1.1M+0.1% of holding+9.0%+34.9%90,087,677Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-04JOHNSON CHARLES BtenPercentOwnerPurchase420 @ $17.72$7K+0.0% of holding+4.0%+2.4%89,375,487Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-04-04JOHNSON CHARLES BtenPercentOwnerSale420 @ $17.57$7K−0.0% of holding+4.0%+2.4%89,375,067Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-03-04JOHNSON CHARLES BtenPercentOwnerPurchase100,000 @ $19.57$2.0M+0.1% of holding+2.8%+22.3%89,375,067Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

122 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-31JOHNSON JENNIFER MdirectorWithheld for tax116,0533,437,981Form 4
2026-08-31Gamba DanielofficerWithheld for tax64,136608,584Form 4
2026-08-31Nicholls MatthewofficerWithheld for tax61,533717,264Form 4
2026-08-31Murphy TerrenceofficerWithheld for tax25,125390,884Form 4
2026-08-31JOHNSON GREGORY EdirectorWithheld for tax10,5682,676,986Form 4
2026-08-31Merchant Thomas CofficerWithheld for tax9,80782,805Form 4
2026-08-31Oshita Lindsey HarumiofficerWithheld for tax2,59826,129Form 4
2026-07-21Gamba DanielofficerAward / grant229,850672,720Form 4
2026-07-21JOHNSON JENNIFER MdirectorAward / grant229,8503,554,034Form 4
2026-07-21Murphy TerrenceofficerAward / grant229,850416,009Form 4
2026-07-21Nicholls MatthewofficerAward / grant229,850778,797Form 4
2026-07-01King Karen MatsushimadirectorAward / grant1,00672,435Form 4
2026-07-01Kim John YdirectorAward / grant98478,893Form 4
2026-05-02King Karen MatsushimadirectorAward / grant8471,429Form 4
2026-04-01King Karen MatsushimadirectorAward / grant1,45270,432Form 4
2026-04-01Kim John YdirectorAward / grant1,42076,909Form 4
2026-02-04Noto AnthonydirectorAward / grant7,59347,152Form 4
2026-02-03YANG GEOFFREY YdirectorAward / grant7,59374,064Form 4
2026-02-03Thiel John WdirectorAward / grant7,59340,792Form 4
2026-02-03Byerwalter Mariann HdirectorAward / grant7,59334,781Form 4
2026-02-03Kim John YdirectorAward / grant7,59375,489Form 4
2026-02-03Friedman Alexander SdirectorAward / grant7,59346,009Form 4
2026-02-03Waugh Seth H.directorAward / grant7,59346,009Form 4
2026-02-03King Karen MatsushimadirectorAward / grant7,59368,980Form 4
2026-01-11King Karen MatsushimadirectorAward / grant9761,387Form 4
2026-01-05JOHNSON JENNIFER MdirectorGift3,920605,929Form 4
2026-01-05JOHNSON JENNIFER MdirectorGift6,2723,324,184Form 4
2026-01-05JOHNSON JENNIFER MdirectorGift3,920605,929Form 4
2026-01-05JOHNSON JENNIFER MdirectorGift6,2723,324,184Form 4
2026-01-02King Karen MatsushimadirectorAward / grant1,43960,530Form 4
2026-01-02Kim John YdirectorAward / grant1,40867,052Form 4
2025-12-26JOHNSON CHARLES BtenPercentOwnerGift25,44090,108,421Form 4
2025-12-26JOHNSON JENNIFER MdirectorGift1,2723,330,456Form 4
2025-12-26JOHNSON JENNIFER MdirectorGift6,360602,009Form 4
2025-12-26JOHNSON GREGORY EdirectorGift1,27227,716Form 4
2025-12-26JOHNSON GREGORY EdirectorGift2,544254,959Form 4
2025-12-26JOHNSON GREGORY EdirectorGift1,2722,687,554Form 4
2025-12-26JOHNSON GREGORY EdirectorGift2,544254,959Form 4
2025-12-26JOHNSON GREGORY EdirectorGift1,2722,687,554Form 4
2025-12-26JOHNSON CHARLES BtenPercentOwnerGift25,44090,108,421Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-10$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-29$1–15K
Thomas H. Kean JrHousesale2025-10-142025-09-03$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-10-032025-09-29$1–15K
Thomas H. Kean JrHousesale2025-05-152025-04-28$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-05-122025-04-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-04-102025-03-06$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-03-062025-02-19$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-02-062025-01-22$1–15K
Thomas H. Kean JrHousesale2025-01-222024-12-16$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2024-12-052024-11-15$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.