Issued 2026-09-16 at $23.10 · now $23.10 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BEAM has typically landed between $17.08 and $30.70 — a range of −26.1% to +32.9% from the issuance price $23.10.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,628 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-02-06 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($23.10) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where BEAM has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $23.1 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $23.1 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $22.61 (-2.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $19.9–$25.31
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $17.08–$30.7
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-13 | −54.4% | −54.4% | +0.0% |
| 2025-03-12 | −46.6% | −47.0% | +0.0% |
| 2025-03-07 | −46.3% | −46.4% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-11-12 | +144.4% | +0.0% | +144.4% |
| 2020-11-19 | +125.6% | +0.0% | +125.6% |
| 2020-11-25 | +114.0% | +0.0% | +114.0% |
1,628 overlapping windows · 2020-02-06 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~7 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | Simon Amy | officer | Sale | 16,667 @ $25.74 | $429K | −16.3% of holding | −1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 85,696 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | Evans John M. | director | Sale | 23,100 @ $34.26 | $791K | −2.2% of holding | −24.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,049,105 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | Evans John M. | director | Sale | 1,900 @ $34.84 | $66K | −0.2% of holding | −24.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,047,205 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | Simon Amy | officer | Sale | 373 @ $34.73 | $13K | −0.4% of holding | −24.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 102,363 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-29 | Evans John M. | director | Sale | 13,421 @ $35.13 | $472K | −1.3% of holding | −28.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,058,784 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-29 | Evans John M. | director | Sale | 11,579 @ $35.91 | $416K | −1.1% of holding | −28.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,047,205 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-26 | FMR LLC | other | Sale | 251,488 @ $35.26 | $8.9M | −22.7% of holding | −30.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 854,583 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-25 | FMR LLC | other | Sale | 33,372 @ $35.12 | $1.2M | −2.9% of holding | −26.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,106,071 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Evans John M. | director | Sale | 30,078 @ $24.58 | $739K | −2.8% of holding | +16.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,047,205 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Ciaramella Giuseppe | officer | Sale | 11,810 @ $24.58 | $290K | −5.1% of holding | +16.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 218,406 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Simon Amy | officer | Sale | 6,700 @ $24.58 | $165K | −6.1% of holding | +16.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 102,735 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Bellon Christine | officer | Sale | 5,956 @ $24.58 | $146K | −5.1% of holding | +16.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 109,711 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Cavanagh Bethany J | officer | Sale | 3,242 @ $24.58 | $80K | −6.0% of holding | +16.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 51,171 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-31 | Evans John M. | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $22.76 | $569K | −2.5% of holding | +16.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 986,667 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-30 | Evans John M. | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $22.37 | $559K | −2.5% of holding | +21.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 986,667 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | Ciaramella Giuseppe | officer | Sale | 35,000 @ $32.00 | $1.1M | −15.5% of holding | −24.2% | −37.5% | 190,216 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-30 | Evans John M. | director | Sale | 22,094 @ $28.27 | $625K | −2.2% of holding | +0.2% | −6.5% | 989,573 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-30 | Evans John M. | director | Sale | 2,906 @ $29.00 | $84K | −0.3% of holding | +0.2% | −6.5% | 986,667 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-29 | Evans John M. | director | Sale | 16,333 @ $29.19 | $477K | −1.6% of holding | −0.9% | −20.4% | 995,334 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-29 | Evans John M. | director | Sale | 8,667 @ $29.74 | $258K | −0.9% of holding | −0.9% | −20.4% | 986,667 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-22 | Cavanagh Bethany J | officer | Sale | 6,198 @ $35.00 | $217K | −15.1% of holding | −16.4% | −34.1% | 34,813 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-22 | Bellon Christine | officer | Sale | 1,371 @ $34.00 | $47K | −1.4% of holding | −16.4% | −34.1% | 95,667 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-20 | Cavanagh Bethany J | officer | Sale | 3,034 @ $30.12 | $91K | −6.9% of holding | −11.0% | −24.9% | 41,011 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-15 | Bellon Christine | officer | Sale | 15,959 @ $34.72 | $554K | −14.1% of holding | −12.9% | −25.6% | 97,597 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-15 | Bellon Christine | officer | Sale | 2,111 @ $33.62 | $71K | −1.8% of holding | −12.9% | −25.6% | 113,556 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-15 | Bellon Christine | officer | Sale | 559 @ $35.40 | $20K | −0.6% of holding | −12.9% | −25.6% | 97,038 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-31 | Emany Sravan Kumar | director | Sale | 6,294 @ $27.10 | $171K | −7.9% of holding | −1.3% | +16.7% | 73,706 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-31 | Bellon Christine | officer | Sale | 1,254 @ $27.10 | $34K | −1.1% of holding | −1.3% | +16.7% | 115,667 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-27 | FMR LLC | other | Sale | 459 @ $26.68 | $12K | −97.0% of holding | −6.1% | +5.5% | 14 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-02 | Evans John M. | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $24.63 | $616K | −2.5% of holding | −4.2% | −4.3% | 986,667 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | Evans John M. | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $24.51 | $613K | −2.5% of holding | −3.1% | +3.5% | 986,667 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | Cavanagh Bethany J | officer | Sale | 467 @ $24.53 | $11K | −1.0% of holding | −3.1% | +3.5% | 44,045 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | Bellon Christine | officer | Sale | 373 @ $24.53 | $9K | −0.3% of holding | −3.1% | +3.5% | 116,921 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-30 | FMR LLC | other | Sale | 48,374 @ $20.50 | $992K | −2.3% of holding | −18.7% | +35.3% | 2,073,665 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-03 | Simon Amy | officer | Sale | 876 @ $20.12 | $18K | −1.3% of holding | −5.4% | +25.8% | 64,864 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-01 | Simon Amy | officer | Sale | 374 @ $16.94 | $6K | −0.6% of holding | +10.1% | +46.8% | 65,740 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-02 | Simon Amy | officer | Sale | 20,997 @ $17.73 | $372K | −24.2% of holding | +9.1% | +19.2% | 65,742 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-01 | Evans John M. | director | Sale | 30,663 @ $18.35 | $563K | −3.0% of holding | +12.9% | +16.9% | 986,249 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-01 | Simon Amy | officer | Sale | 9,566 @ $18.35 | $176K | −9.9% of holding | +12.9% | +16.9% | 86,739 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-01 | Ciaramella Giuseppe | officer | Sale | 7,434 @ $18.35 | $136K | −3.8% of holding | +12.9% | +16.9% | 190,216 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-01 | Bellon Christine | officer | Sale | 5,674 @ $18.35 | $104K | −4.6% of holding | +12.9% | +16.9% | 117,294 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-01 | Cavanagh Bethany J | officer | Sale | 3,015 @ $18.35 | $55K | −6.3% of holding | +12.9% | +16.9% | 44,512 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-18 | Cavanagh Bethany J | officer | Sale | 6,287 @ $35.00 | $220K | −14.3% of holding | −22.2% | −56.4% | 37,527 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-14 | Bellon Christine | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $34.00 | $340K | −8.9% of holding | −22.3% | −53.4% | 102,968 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-30 | Evans John M. | director | Sale | 29,800 @ $26.75 | $797K | −3.2% of holding | −4.5% | −34.3% | 908,859 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-30 | Evans John M. | director | Sale | 200 @ $27.28 | $5K | −0.0% of holding | −4.5% | −34.3% | 908,659 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-02 | Bellon Christine | officer | Sale | 1,241 @ $24.68 | $31K | −1.2% of holding | +1.3% | −24.6% | 102,968 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-02 | Cavanagh Bethany J | officer | Sale | 1,117 @ $24.68 | $28K | −2.5% of holding | +1.3% | −24.6% | 43,814 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
71 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | Evans John M. | director | Option exercise | 25,000 | 1,072,205 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Evans John M. | director | Option exercise | 25,000 | 205,804 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Evans John M. | director | Option exercise | 18,663 | 1,065,868 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Evans John M. | director | Option exercise | 6,337 | 1,072,205 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Evans John M. | director | Option exercise | 6,337 | 230,804 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Evans John M. | director | Option exercise | 18,663 | 9 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Ciaramella Giuseppe | officer | Option exercise | 29,000 | 253,911 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Ciaramella Giuseppe | officer | Option exercise | 6,505 | 224,911 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Ciaramella Giuseppe | officer | Option exercise | 6,505 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Ciaramella Giuseppe | officer | Option exercise | 29,000 | 56,946 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Walsh Kathleen E | director | Award / grant | 19,676 | 19,676 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | COOPER GRAHAM K | director | Award / grant | 19,676 | 19,676 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | MARAGANORE JOHN | director | Award / grant | 19,676 | 19,676 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Shaw Christi | director | Award / grant | 19,676 | 19,676 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Guindo Chirfi | director | Award / grant | 19,676 | 19,676 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Fishman Mark | director | Award / grant | 19,676 | 19,676 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Evans John M. | director | Option exercise | 25,000 | 1,011,667 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Cavanagh Bethany J | officer | Award / grant | 20,000 | 54,813 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Evans John M. | director | Award / grant | 90,000 | 1,076,667 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Evans John M. | director | Option exercise | 25,000 | 18,672 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Simon Amy | officer | Award / grant | 31,750 | 109,114 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Bellon Christine | officer | Award / grant | 20,000 | 115,667 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Ciaramella Giuseppe | officer | Award / grant | 40,000 | 230,216 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Emany Sravan Kumar | director | Award / grant | 31,750 | 105,456 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-30 | Evans John M. | director | Option exercise | 25,000 | 1,011,667 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-30 | Evans John M. | director | Option exercise | 25,000 | 43,672 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Ciaramella Giuseppe | officer | Option exercise | 35,000 | 225,216 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Ciaramella Giuseppe | officer | Option exercise | 35,000 | 397,313 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-31 | Emany Sravan Kumar | director | Award / grant | 63,500 | 63,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-31 | Simon Amy | officer | Award / grant | 88,500 | 88,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-31 | Bellon Christine | officer | Award / grant | 40,000 | 40,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-31 | Cavanagh Bethany J | officer | Award / grant | 40,000 | 40,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-31 | Evans John M. | director | Award / grant | 180,000 | 180,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-31 | Ciaramella Giuseppe | officer | Award / grant | 80,000 | 80,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-30 | Evans John M. | director | Option exercise | 25,000 | 1,011,667 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-30 | Evans John M. | director | Option exercise | 25,000 | 68,672 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-29 | Evans John M. | director | Option exercise | 19,336 | 1,006,003 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-29 | Evans John M. | director | Option exercise | 5,664 | 1,011,667 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-29 | Evans John M. | director | Option exercise | 19,336 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-29 | Evans John M. | director | Option exercise | 5,664 | 93,672 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.