Issued 2026-09-16 at $181.85 · now $181.85 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BDX has typically landed between $166.53 and $199.09 — a range of −8.4% to +9.5% from the issuance price $181.85.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($181.85) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where BDX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $181.85 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $181.85 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $182.63 (+0.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $176.32–$188.94
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $166.53–$199.09
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-04-02 | −25.5% | −25.5% | +0.0% |
| 2025-04-01 | −25.0% | −25.0% | +0.2% |
| 2025-04-03 | −24.6% | −24.6% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-23 | +33.0% | +0.0% | +33.0% |
| 2020-03-25 | +31.7% | +0.0% | +31.7% |
| 2020-03-24 | +30.7% | +0.0% | +31.5% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$56.6B
market cap
$3.95
EPS (TTM)
39.6
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-06
next earnings
Revenue$21.8B
'20'25
Net income$1.7B
'20'25
Free cash flow$2.7B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr7.7%
'20'25
ROE · by yr6.6%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.76
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 54 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$998.44
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 27.4× · n=54$108.39
- Analyst target · range $159.00–$204.00$175.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$181.85
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
61%
+3.0%
n=18
Feb
47%
−1.1%
n=19
Mar
68%
+1.1%
n=19
Apr
47%
−0.0%
n=19
May
37%
−1.5%
n=19
Jun
74%
+1.8%
n=19
Jul
79%
+3.3%
n=19
Aug
63%
+0.5%
n=19
Sep
26%
−2.0%
n=19
Oct
44%
−0.1%
n=18
Nov
72%
+2.3%
n=18
Dec
78%
+2.4%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Feld Michael | officer | Sale | 165 @ $188.49 | $31K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 19,720 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Polen Thomas E Jr | director | Sale | 4,152 @ $185.00 | $768K | −3.6% of holding | +2.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 110,163 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Goette Roland | officer | Sale | 2,438 @ $180.84 | $441K | −14.1% of holding | −1.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,856 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | Feld Michael | officer | Sale | 75 @ $157.13 | $12K | −0.4% of holding | +15.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,934 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-26 | Feld Michael | officer | Sale | 75 @ $152.80 | $11K | −0.4% of holding | +5.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,009 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-24 | Garrison Michael David | officer | Sale | 1,100 @ $145.66 | $160K | −7.7% of holding | +5.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,172 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | Garrison Michael David | officer | Sale | 1,100 @ $151.48 | $167K | −7.2% of holding | +0.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,272 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Polen Thomas E Jr | director | Sale | 2,764 @ $146.35 | $405K | −2.4% of holding | +7.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 110,163 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Feld Michael | officer | Sale | 75 @ $147.35 | $11K | −0.4% of holding | +5.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,084 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-27 | Feld Michael | officer | Sale | 74 @ $151.94 | $11K | −0.3% of holding | −6.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,159 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-26 | Feld Michael | officer | Sale | 75 @ $156.83 | $12K | −0.4% of holding | −15.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,233 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | Feld Michael | officer | Sale | 75 @ $181.84 | $14K | −0.4% of holding | −4.2% | −4.5% | 21,308 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | SCOTT BERTRAM L | director | Sale | 953 @ $182.61 | $174K | −2.5% of holding | −9.9% | −8.6% | 36,763 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-26 | Feld Michael | officer | Sale | 75 @ $202.73 | $15K | −0.5% of holding | +13.1% | −2.1% | 16,431 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-15 | Garrison Michael David | officer | Sale | 1,010 @ $206.54 | $209K | −7.7% of holding | +9.6% | −12.2% | 12,095 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-15 | Garrison Michael David | officer | Sale | 600 @ $209.00 | $125K | −4.4% of holding | +9.6% | −12.2% | 13,105 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-26 | Feld Michael | officer | Sale | 74 @ $196.08 | $15K | −0.4% of holding | +2.1% | −9.4% | 16,506 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-17 | Garrison Michael David | officer | Sale | 629 @ $196.03 | $123K | −4.6% of holding | +2.9% | −18.9% | 13,105 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-01 | Feld Michael | officer | Sale | 75 @ $193.36 | $15K | −0.5% of holding | +1.2% | −13.8% | 16,580 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-07 | SCOTT BERTRAM L | director | Sale | 217 @ $176.58 | $38K | −0.6% of holding | +5.0% | −3.9% | 35,816 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-27 | Feld Michael | officer | Sale | 57 @ $186.01 | $11K | −0.7% of holding | +6.0% | −4.4% | 8,245 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-26 | Feld Michael | officer | Sale | 58 @ $181.03 | $10K | −0.7% of holding | −2.2% | +11.8% | 8,302 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-10 | Fraser Claire | director | Sale | 917 @ $187.50 | $172K | −4.0% of holding | −2.8% | +6.3% | 22,226 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-22 | Feld Michael | officer | Sale | 57 @ $197.99 | $11K | −0.7% of holding | −9.1% | +10.4% | 8,360 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-11 | HAYES GREGORY | director | Purchase | 5,250 @ $191.57 | $1.0M | +659.5% of holding | −4.1% | +5.2% | 6,046 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-08 | Fraser Claire | director | Sale | 863 @ $192.30 | $166K | −3.6% of holding | −3.1% | −1.2% | 23,143 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-18 | Garrison Michael David | officer | Sale | 1,184 @ $180.29 | $213K | −19.5% of holding | +6.5% | +6.2% | 4,888 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-18 | Garrison Michael David | officer | Sale | 1 @ $181.50 | $182 | −0.0% of holding | +6.5% | +6.2% | 4,887 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-02 | Shan David | officer | Sale | 1,166 @ $171.19 | $200K | −20.3% of holding | +0.3% | −0.9% | 4,575 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-09 | Garrison Michael David | officer | Sale | 479 @ $197.28 | $94K | −8.9% of holding | −23.0% | −31.7% | 4,887 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-18 | Byrd Richard | officer | Sale | 459 @ $230.00 | $106K | −6.2% of holding | −7.6% | −36.5% | 6,952 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-12 | Byrd Richard | officer | Sale | 1,940 @ $224.91 | $436K | −20.7% of holding | −5.2% | −32.3% | 7,411 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-12 | SCOTT BERTRAM L | director | Sale | 700 @ $227.99 | $160K | −1.9% of holding | +7.4% | −20.2% | 36,033 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-10 | Henderson Jeffrey William | director | Purchase | 1,500 @ $233.62 | $350K | +23.0% of holding | +5.7% | −21.0% | 8,015 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-01-21 | Neal Shana Carol | officer | Sale | 787 @ $240.00 | $189K | −4.9% of holding | −6.4% | −28.9% | 15,414 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-21 | Shan David | officer | Sale | 500 @ $240.00 | $120K | −8.0% of holding | −6.4% | −28.9% | 5,741 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-17 | Garrison Michael David | officer | Sale | 597 @ $236.51 | $141K | −9.7% of holding | −6.7% | −28.6% | 5,544 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-07 | Neal Shana Carol | officer | Sale | 788 @ $235.00 | $185K | −4.6% of holding | −3.1% | −29.9% | 16,201 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-19 | Garrison Michael David | officer | Sale | 2,838 @ $223.33 | $634K | −31.6% of holding | +3.1% | −27.3% | 6,141 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-09 | Goette Roland | officer | Sale | 638 @ $219.03 | $140K | −4.3% of holding | +8.5% | −21.3% | 14,217 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-06 | Goette Roland | officer | Sale | 4,483 @ $221.01 | $991K | −15.6% of holding | +9.7% | −19.8% | 24,345 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-06 | Neal Shana Carol | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $220.49 | $220K | −5.6% of holding | +9.7% | −19.8% | 16,989 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-05 | Shan David | officer | Sale | 1,500 @ $220.25 | $330K | −19.3% of holding | +7.6% | −20.3% | 6,285 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
110 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Roque Vitor | officer | Withheld for tax | 190 | 8,041 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Feld Michael | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,049 | 19,885 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Polen Thomas E Jr | director | Disposition | 39,126 | 114,315 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Polen Thomas E Jr | director | Option exercise | 43,278 | 153,441 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Polen Thomas E Jr | director | Option exercise | 43,278 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Huffines Robert Luther | director | Award / grant | 189 | 595 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Byington Carrie L | director | Award / grant | 94 | 3,810 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | Muhsin Bilal | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,935 | 41,359 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Muhsin Bilal | officer | Award / grant | 14,342 | 43,294 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Polen Thomas E Jr | director | Disposition | 17,445 | 108,235 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Polen Thomas E Jr | director | Option exercise | 20,209 | 125,680 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Menziuso Peter | officer | Award / grant | 14,258 | 14,258 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Polen Thomas E Jr | director | Option exercise | 20,209 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Huffines Robert Luther | director | Award / grant | 210 | 404 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Byington Carrie L | director | Award / grant | 105 | 3,699 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Roque Vitor | officer | Award / grant | 1,721 | 8,231 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-06 | Neal Shana Carol | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,146 | 23,966 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | Minnix Lanesha | director | Award / grant | 7,492 | 7,492 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Spikner Pamela L. | officer | Award / grant | 931 | 3,323 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Roque Vitor | officer | Award / grant | 931 | 6,510 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-04 | Jones Christopher Ian Montague | director | Award / grant | 272 | 11,649 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-04 | Huffines Robert Luther | director | Award / grant | 100 | 100 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-04 | Byington Carrie L | director | Award / grant | 30 | 1,714 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-27 | SCOTT BERTRAM L | director | Award / grant | 1,098 | 37,716 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-27 | ECKERT R ANDREW | director | Award / grant | 1,098 | 10,423 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-27 | Brown William M | director | Award / grant | 1,098 | 4,663 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-27 | Byington Carrie L | director | Award / grant | 1,098 | 5,018 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-27 | Wright Jacqueline | director | Award / grant | 1,098 | 1,279 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-27 | Waldstreicher Joanne | director | Award / grant | 1,098 | 3,391 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-27 | Huffines Robert Luther | director | Award / grant | 1,098 | 1,279 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-27 | Henderson Jeffrey William | director | Award / grant | 1,098 | 9,143 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-27 | HAYES GREGORY | director | Award / grant | 1,098 | 7,159 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-27 | Jones Christopher Ian Montague | director | Award / grant | 1,098 | 24,304 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-27 | RING TIMOTHY M | director | Award / grant | 1,098 | 59,160 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-21 | Spikner Pamela L. | officer | Withheld for tax | 84 | 1,832 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | Garrison Michael David | officer | Disposition | 2,454 | 13,705 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | Garrison Michael David | officer | Option exercise | 3,054 | 16,159 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | Garrison Michael David | officer | Option exercise | 3,054 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-03 | Shan David | officer | Withheld for tax | 44 | 8,926 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-01 | Huffines Robert Luther | director | Award / grant | 180 | 180 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-02 | $1–15K |
| Thomas H. Kean Jr | House | sale | 2026-06-18 | 2026-05-21 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-01 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-24 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-23 | $1–15K |
| Kevin Hern | House | sale | 2026-04-03 | 2026-03-17 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-12-08 | 2025-11-03 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-12-08 | 2025-11-10 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.