Issued 2026-09-16 at $1.94 · now $1.94 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BDTX has typically landed between $1.27 and $2.81 — a range of −34.6% to +45.1% from the issuance price $1.94.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,644 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-01-30 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($1.94) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where BDTX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $1.94 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $1.94 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $1.9 (-2.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $1.54–$2.26
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $1.27–$2.81
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-05-20 | −55.3% | −55.3% | +0.0% |
| 2026-05-21 | −54.6% | −54.6% | +0.0% |
| 2022-09-12 | −54.4% | −54.4% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2023-05-25 | +231.2% | +0.0% | +231.2% |
| 2023-05-26 | +182.6% | +0.0% | +221.9% |
| 2023-05-30 | +171.5% | −2.2% | +208.1% |
1,644 overlapping windows · 2020-01-30 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- November 2028 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: Study of Silevertinib With Temozolomide for the Treatment of Newly Diagnosed GBM With Unmethylated MGMT and EGFRvIII (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~7 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-19 | BIOTECH GROWTH N V | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 2,000,000 @ $2.00 | $4.0M | −32.2% of holding | −9.4% | +77.3% | 4,217,839 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-19 | BIOTECH GROWTH N V | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,000,000 @ $2.31 | $2.3M | −13.9% of holding | −9.4% | +77.3% | 6,217,839 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-19 | BIOTECH GROWTH N V | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,000,000 @ $2.07 | $2.1M | −11.7% of holding | −9.4% | +77.3% | 7,517,839 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-19 | BIOTECH GROWTH N V | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 584,292 @ $1.95 | $1.1M | −15.3% of holding | −9.4% | +77.3% | 3,233,547 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-19 | BIOTECH GROWTH N V | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 500,000 @ $2.12 | $1.1M | −15.5% of holding | −9.4% | +77.3% | 2,733,547 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-19 | BIOTECH GROWTH N V | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 400,000 @ $2.09 | $837K | −9.5% of holding | −9.4% | +77.3% | 3,817,839 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-19 | BIOTECH GROWTH N V | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 300,000 @ $1.94 | $583K | −4.0% of holding | −9.4% | +77.3% | 7,217,839 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
42 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-26 | Kulkarni Samarth | director | Award / grant | 40,000 | 40,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Raman Prakash | director | Award / grant | 40,000 | 40,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Campbell Shannon | director | Award / grant | 40,000 | 40,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Behbahani Ali | director | Award / grant | 40,000 | 40,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Dhingra Kapil | director | Award / grant | 40,000 | 40,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Menzel Garry E | director | Award / grant | 40,000 | 40,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-19 | Behbahani Ali | director | Award / grant | 8,961 | 102,529 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-19 | Raman Prakash | director | Award / grant | 7,907 | 45,039 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Behbahani Ali | director | Award / grant | 6,919 | 93,568 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Raman Prakash | director | Award / grant | 6,105 | 37,132 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-21 | Velleca Mark A. | director | Award / grant | 600,000 | 600,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-21 | Yurasov Sergey | officer | Award / grant | 250,000 | 250,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-21 | Hatzis-Schoch Brent | officer | Award / grant | 250,000 | 250,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-21 | Buck Elizabeth | officer | Award / grant | 250,000 | 250,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-21 | Jones Erika | officer | Award / grant | 200,000 | 200,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-12 | Behbahani Ali | director | Award / grant | 5,208 | 86,649 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-12 | Raman Prakash | director | Award / grant | 4,665 | 31,027 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-19 | Behbahani Ali | director | Award / grant | 4,291 | 81,441 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-19 | Raman Prakash | director | Award / grant | 3,843 | 26,362 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-20 | Behbahani Ali | director | Award / grant | 6,170 | 77,150 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-20 | Raman Prakash | director | Award / grant | 5,526 | 22,519 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-12 | Kulkarni Samarth | director | Award / grant | 30,550 | 30,550 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-12 | Menzel Garry E | director | Award / grant | 30,550 | 30,550 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-12 | Campbell Shannon | director | Award / grant | 30,550 | 30,550 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-12 | Behbahani Ali | director | Award / grant | 30,550 | 30,550 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-12 | Dhingra Kapil | director | Award / grant | 30,550 | 30,550 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-12 | Raman Prakash | director | Award / grant | 30,550 | 30,550 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-21 | Behbahani Ali | director | Award / grant | 7,646 | 70,980 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-21 | Raman Prakash | director | Award / grant | 6,848 | 16,993 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-30 | Velleca Mark A. | director | Award / grant | 500,000 | 500,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-30 | Hatzis-Schoch Brent | officer | Award / grant | 75,000 | 83,400 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-30 | Yurasov Sergey | officer | Award / grant | 200,000 | 200,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-30 | Yurasov Sergey | officer | Award / grant | 75,000 | 75,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-30 | Hatzis-Schoch Brent | officer | Award / grant | 175,000 | 175,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-30 | Jones Erika | officer | Award / grant | 75,000 | 85,150 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-30 | Jones Erika | officer | Award / grant | 125,000 | 125,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-30 | Buck Elizabeth | officer | Award / grant | 75,000 | 170,192 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-30 | Buck Elizabeth | officer | Award / grant | 175,000 | 175,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-30 | Velleca Mark A. | director | Award / grant | 75,000 | 121,522 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-13 | Behbahani Ali | director | Award / grant | 5,750 | 63,334 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.