BCRX · TickerCove

BCRXBioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc.Healthcare · Biotechnologyas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $8.43 · now $8.43 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BCRX has typically landed between $6.86 and $10.72 — a range of −18.7% to +27.2% from the issuance price $8.43.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,001 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($8.43) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$8.43 · 45% of range

$6.24 low$11.11 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−1.4%

typical move · IQR 17.1%

−18.7%worst (p90)+27.2%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where BCRX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $8.43 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $8.43 (+0.0%)
typical $8.31 (-1.4%)
middle 50% $7.59–$9.03
90% range $6.86–$10.72

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,001 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2016-01-07	−79.2%	−79.2%	+0.0%
2016-01-12	−78.8%	−79.5%	+0.0%
2016-01-08	−78.8%	−78.8%	+0.0%
3 best
2013-07-09	+287.0%	+0.0%	+287.0%
2013-07-05	+272.8%	+0.0%	+272.8%
2013-07-08	+267.9%	+0.0%	+272.8%

5,001 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

45%

−0.2%

n=20

Feb

55%

−0.5%

n=20

Mar

35%

+2.6%

n=20

Apr

55%

+7.3%

n=20

May

55%

+3.2%

n=20

Jun

55%

+2.5%

n=20

Jul

65%

+17.1%

n=20

Aug

60%

+7.8%

n=20

Sep

25%

−8.2%

n=20

Oct

45%

−6.7%

n=20

Nov

45%

+3.2%

n=20

Dec

55%

+2.5%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-05-18	McKee Amy E	director	Sale	11,180 @ $8.97	$100K	−26.3% of holding	−0.5%	not yet — horizon still open	31,252	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-13	Barnes Alane P	officer	Sale	62,500 @ $9.54	$596K	−13.5% of holding	−9.3%	not yet — horizon still open	400,703	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-20	HEGGIE THERESA	director	Sale	49,933 @ $10.11	$505K	−43.3% of holding	−20.1%	not yet — horizon still open	65,352	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-16	Barnes Alane P	officer	Sale	150,000 @ $9.15	$1.4M	−27.2% of holding	−3.4%	−26.1%	400,703	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-22	Barnes Alane P	officer	Sale	21,773 @ $7.65	$167K	−5.2% of holding	−11.4%	+22.3%	398,751	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-15	Barnes Alane P	officer	Sale	21,210 @ $7.65	$162K	−6.3% of holding	−7.5%	+8.5%	315,726	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-03	Barnes Alane P	officer	Sale	19,770 @ $7.65	$151K	−5.4% of holding	−6.5%	−1.3%	345,476	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-02	Barnes Alane P	officer	Sale	50,906 @ $7.21	$367K	−12.2% of holding	+4.2%	+6.6%	365,246	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-01	Barnes Alane P	officer	Sale	91,004 @ $7.10	$647K	−17.9% of holding	+8.9%	+4.2%	416,152	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-13	SANDERS MACHELLE	director	Sale	9,600 @ $7.14	$69K	−23.9% of holding	+8.7%	+19.5%	30,642	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-13	HEGGIE THERESA	director	Sale	70,000 @ $8.51	$596K	−51.7% of holding	−9.2%	−26.5%	65,352	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-13	Hutson Nancy J	director	Sale	7,000 @ $7.54	$53K	−7.5% of holding	−4.5%	+32.8%	86,638	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

126 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-31	Milne Jill C.	director	Award / grant	1,288	33,226	Form 4
2026-08-31	Frank Steven	director	Award / grant	1,288	36,747	Form 4
2026-08-31	MILANO VINCENT	director	Award / grant	1,159	109,642	Form 4
2026-08-31	Stonehouse Jon P	director	Award / grant	644	1,340,419	Form 4
2026-08-31	McKee Amy E	director	Award / grant	644	47,821	Form 4
2026-06-11	Stonehouse Jon P	director	Award / grant	15,294	1,339,775	Form 4
2026-06-11	Stonehouse Jon P	director	Award / grant	33,540	33,540	Form 4
2026-06-11	MILANO VINCENT	director	Award / grant	15,294	108,483	Form 4
2026-06-11	MILANO VINCENT	director	Award / grant	33,540	33,540	Form 4
2026-06-11	SANDERS MACHELLE	director	Award / grant	15,294	45,936	Form 4
2026-06-11	SANDERS MACHELLE	director	Award / grant	33,540	33,540	Form 4
2026-06-11	Frank Steven	director	Award / grant	33,540	33,540	Form 4
2026-06-11	LEVIN ALAN G	director	Award / grant	15,294	79,565	Form 4
2026-06-11	LEVIN ALAN G	director	Award / grant	33,540	33,540	Form 4
2026-06-11	Galson Steven K	director	Award / grant	15,294	27,794	Form 4
2026-06-11	Galson Steven K	director	Award / grant	33,540	33,540	Form 4
2026-06-11	Milne Jill C.	director	Award / grant	15,294	31,938	Form 4
2026-06-11	Milne Jill C.	director	Award / grant	33,540	33,540	Form 4
2026-06-11	Frank Steven	director	Award / grant	15,294	35,459	Form 4
2026-06-11	HEGGIE THERESA	director	Award / grant	15,294	80,646	Form 4
2026-06-11	HEGGIE THERESA	director	Award / grant	33,540	33,540	Form 4
2026-06-11	McKee Amy E	director	Award / grant	15,294	47,177	Form 4
2026-06-11	McKee Amy E	director	Award / grant	33,540	33,540	Form 4
2026-05-29	Frank Steven	director	Award / grant	1,262	20,165	Form 4
2026-05-29	Milne Jill C.	director	Award / grant	1,262	16,644	Form 4
2026-05-29	MILANO VINCENT	director	Award / grant	1,122	93,189	Form 4
2026-05-29	McKee Amy E	director	Award / grant	631	31,883	Form 4
2026-05-29	Stonehouse Jon P	director	Award / grant	631	1,324,481	Form 4
2026-05-13	Barnes Alane P	officer	Option exercise	62,500	463,203	Form 4
2026-05-13	Barnes Alane P	officer	Option exercise	62,500	0	Form 4
2026-04-06	Menon Sandeep	officer	Award / grant	205,150	205,150	Form 4
2026-04-06	Menon Sandeep	officer	Award / grant	441,350	441,350	Form 4
2026-03-20	HEGGIE THERESA	director	Option exercise	49,933	115,285	Form 4
2026-03-20	HEGGIE THERESA	director	Option exercise	49,933	0	Form 4
2026-03-16	Barnes Alane P	officer	Option exercise	150,000	550,703	Form 4
2026-03-16	Barnes Alane P	officer	Option exercise	150,000	0	Form 4
2026-03-02	Stonehouse Jon P	director	Disposition	305,995	1,323,850	Form 4
2026-03-02	Stonehouse Jon P	director	Option exercise	305,995	1,629,845	Form 4
2026-03-02	Stonehouse Jon P	director	Option exercise	305,995	0	Form 4
2026-02-27	Frank Steven	director	Award / grant	1,285	18,903	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

27d remaining

2026-09-174% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i