BCPC · TickerCove

BCPCBalchem CorpBasic Materials · Chemicals - Specialtyas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $167.60 · now $167.60 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BCPC has typically landed between $150.89 and $185.91 — a range of −10.0% to +10.9% from the issuance price $167.60.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($167.60) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$167.6 · 64% of range

$139.44 low$183.26 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.4%

typical move · IQR 9.7%

−10.0%worst (p90)+10.9%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where BCPC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $167.6 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $167.6 (+0.0%)
typical $168.21 (+0.4%)
middle 50% $160.07–$176.36
90% range $150.89–$185.91

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2012-02-03	−29.9%	−29.9%	+0.0%
2012-02-01	−27.9%	−28.1%	+0.1%
2012-02-06	−27.9%	−28.7%	+0.0%
3 best
2007-07-26	+33.9%	+0.0%	+36.3%
2009-03-05	+32.4%	−1.5%	+32.4%
2010-02-08	+30.8%	+0.0%	+30.8%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

30%

−4.0%

n=20

Feb

55%

+1.4%

n=20

Mar

60%

+4.4%

n=20

Apr

40%

+0.1%

n=20

May

55%

+1.4%

n=20

Jun

60%

+1.3%

n=20

Jul

65%

+3.3%

n=20

Aug

55%

+1.7%

n=20

Sep

55%

+2.2%

n=20

Oct

60%

+2.6%

n=20

Nov

85%

+3.8%

n=20

Dec

50%

+0.8%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2025-12-04	van Gunsteren Job Leonard	officer	Sale	4,235 @ $153.07	$648K	−27.4% of holding	+1.0%	−4.5%	11,211	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-04	van Gunsteren Job Leonard	officer	Sale	1,765 @ $153.80	$271K	−15.7% of holding	+1.0%	−4.5%	9,446	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-03	Fischer David B	director	Sale	6,000 @ $153.91	$923K	−37.5% of holding	+1.1%	−4.0%	9,989	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-03	Fischer David B	director	Sale	2,000 @ $154.15	$308K	−20.0% of holding	+1.1%	−4.0%	7,989	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-11	Reid Martin Luther	officer	Sale	1,200 @ $154.44	$185K	−14.0% of holding	−0.3%	−6.3%	7,391	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

109 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-02-12	Harris Theodore L	director	Withheld for tax	844	91,373	Form 4
2026-02-12	Bengtsson Carl Martin	officer	Withheld for tax	302	27,926	Form 4
2026-02-12	Boned Frederic	officer	Withheld for tax	203	8,978	Form 4
2026-02-12	Miyata Hatsuki	officer	Withheld for tax	181	8,745	Form 4
2026-02-12	Tignor Michael Brent	officer	Withheld for tax	165	10,723	Form 4
2026-02-12	Reid Martin Luther	officer	Withheld for tax	116	9,073	Form 4
2026-02-12	Backus William A.	officer	Withheld for tax	70	6,736	Form 4
2026-02-12	van Gunsteren Job Leonard	officer	Withheld for tax	58	10,149	Form 4
2026-02-11	Harris Theodore L	director	Withheld for tax	9,358	92,217	Form 4
2026-02-11	Bengtsson Carl Martin	officer	Withheld for tax	2,416	28,228	Form 4
2026-02-11	Boned Frederic	officer	Withheld for tax	1,151	9,181	Form 4
2026-02-11	Reid Martin Luther	officer	Withheld for tax	1,085	9,189	Form 4
2026-02-11	Tignor Michael Brent	officer	Withheld for tax	991	10,888	Form 4
2026-02-11	Miyata Hatsuki	officer	Withheld for tax	877	8,926	Form 4
2026-02-11	Backus William A.	officer	Withheld for tax	865	6,806	Form 4
2026-02-11	van Gunsteren Job Leonard	officer	Withheld for tax	756	10,207	Form 4
2026-02-11	Bengtsson Carl Martin	officer	Award / grant	13,200	13,200	Form 4
2026-02-11	Miyata Hatsuki	officer	Award / grant	1,710	7,556	Form 4
2026-02-11	Miyata Hatsuki	officer	Award / grant	2,247	9,803	Form 4
2026-02-11	Miyata Hatsuki	officer	Award / grant	6,300	6,300	Form 4
2026-02-11	Graham George	officer	Award / grant	700	3,200	Form 4
2026-02-11	Graham George	officer	Award / grant	2,600	2,600	Form 4
2026-02-11	Harris Theodore L	director	Award / grant	7,350	83,284	Form 4
2026-02-11	Harris Theodore L	director	Award / grant	18,291	101,575	Form 4
2026-02-11	Harris Theodore L	director	Award / grant	26,900	26,900	Form 4
2026-02-11	Reid Martin Luther	officer	Award / grant	940	7,915	Form 4
2026-02-11	Reid Martin Luther	officer	Award / grant	2,359	10,274	Form 4
2026-02-11	Reid Martin Luther	officer	Award / grant	3,400	3,400	Form 4
2026-02-11	van Gunsteren Job Leonard	officer	Award / grant	430	9,618	Form 4
2026-02-11	van Gunsteren Job Leonard	officer	Award / grant	1,345	10,963	Form 4
2026-02-11	Boned Frederic	officer	Award / grant	2,247	10,332	Form 4
2026-02-11	Fish Kathleen B	director	Award / grant	870	3,429	Form 4
2026-02-11	Knutson Daniel E	director	Award / grant	870	6,899	Form 4
2026-02-11	Rigaud Olivier	director	Award / grant	870	2,390	Form 4
2026-02-11	Wineinger Matthew David	director	Award / grant	870	8,012	Form 4
2026-02-11	VICENTE MONICA	director	Award / grant	870	2,390	Form 4
2026-02-11	Bengtsson Carl Martin	officer	Award / grant	3,610	25,926	Form 4
2026-02-11	Bengtsson Carl Martin	officer	Award / grant	4,718	30,644	Form 4
2026-02-11	Tignor Michael Brent	officer	Award / grant	1,200	9,950	Form 4
2026-02-11	Tignor Michael Brent	officer	Award / grant	1,929	11,879	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i