Issued 2026-09-16 at $108.42 · now $108.42 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BCO has typically landed between $96.59 and $123.43 — a range of −10.9% to +13.8% from the issuance price $108.42.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($108.42) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where BCO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $108.42 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $108.42 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $109.84 (+1.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $104.13–$115.54
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $96.59–$123.43
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −50.3% | −50.3% | +1.0% |
| 2020-02-20 | −46.6% | −46.6% | +0.5% |
| 2020-02-24 | −45.8% | −49.4% | +2.8% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2008-10-27 | +407.2% | +0.0% | +558.6% |
| 2008-10-24 | +388.7% | −3.8% | +533.8% |
| 2008-10-06 | +388.5% | −24.7% | +396.2% |
4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-15 | Sweeney Michael E | officer | Sale | 1,418 @ $119.50 | $169K | −19.8% of holding | +2.3% | −27.7% | 5,755 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-15 | Castillo Daniel J | officer | Sale | 21,508 @ $109.70 | $2.4M | −49.0% of holding | +1.7% | +11.5% | 22,380 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-15 | Castillo Daniel J | officer | Sale | 192 @ $110.35 | $21K | −0.9% of holding | +1.7% | +11.5% | 22,188 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-14 | Sweeney Michael E | officer | Sale | 746 @ $115.00 | $86K | −8.7% of holding | +1.0% | +11.6% | 7,785 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-14 | Parker Arthelbert Louis | director | Sale | 540 @ $115.00 | $62K | −7.6% of holding | +1.0% | +11.6% | 6,603 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-13 | Sweeney Michael E | officer | Sale | 795 @ $110.00 | $87K | −8.5% of holding | +2.1% | +10.2% | 8,531 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-11 | Wyche Keith R | director | Sale | 475 @ $106.15 | $50K | −11.4% of holding | +4.6% | +14.4% | 3,682 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-07 | Sweeney Michael E | officer | Sale | 500 @ $105.00 | $53K | −5.1% of holding | +6.8% | +15.4% | 9,326 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-07 | Sweeney Michael E | officer | Sale | 500 @ $102.50 | $51K | −4.8% of holding | +6.8% | +15.4% | 9,826 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-06 | Sweeney Michael E | officer | Sale | 814 @ $100.00 | $81K | −7.3% of holding | +12.4% | +21.0% | 10,326 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-06 | Sweeney Michael E | officer | Sale | 500 @ $97.50 | $49K | −4.3% of holding | +12.4% | +21.0% | 11,140 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-07 | Sweeney Michael E | officer | Sale | 488 @ $95.00 | $46K | −4.0% of holding | −7.1% | +16.0% | 11,640 | Form 4 · filed 32 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-19 | Herling Michael J | director | Purchase | 222 @ $86.41 | $19K | +1.3% of holding | +0.7% | +13.6% | 16,885 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
287 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Cook Kristen Williams | officer | Withheld for tax | 729 | 9,964 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Eubanks Richard M. | director | Award / grant | 109 | 47,424 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | BOYNTON PAUL G | director | Award / grant | 73 | 11,072 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Tynan Timothy Joseph | director | Award / grant | 21 | 2,383 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Herling Michael J | director | Award / grant | 14 | 6,030 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | McMaken Kurt B | director | Award / grant | 13 | 5,613 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | BOYNTON PAUL G | director | Award / grant | 11 | 4,906 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Galloway Elizabeth A | officer | Award / grant | 7 | 3,068 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Peschard Mijares Guillermo Eduardo | officer | Award / grant | 2 | 1,073 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Cook Kristen Williams | officer | Award / grant | 1 | 427 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Button Adrian | officer | Award / grant | 0 | 256 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Eubanks Richard M. | director | Award / grant | 109 | 47,315 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | McMaken Kurt B | director | Award / grant | 54 | 5,600 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Peschard Mijares Guillermo Eduardo | officer | Award / grant | 52 | 1,070 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Button Adrian | officer | Award / grant | 50 | 256 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Galloway Elizabeth A | officer | Award / grant | 40 | 3,061 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Cook Kristen Williams | officer | Award / grant | 40 | 426 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Eubanks Richard M. | director | Award / grant | 101 | 47,206 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | McMaken Kurt B | director | Award / grant | 50 | 5,546 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Peschard Mijares Guillermo Eduardo | officer | Award / grant | 48 | 1,018 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Button Adrian | officer | Award / grant | 46 | 206 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Galloway Elizabeth A | officer | Award / grant | 37 | 3,021 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Cook Kristen Williams | officer | Award / grant | 37 | 386 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | BOYNTON PAUL G | director | Award / grant | 158 | 10,999 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Herling Michael J | director | Award / grant | 171 | 19,509 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Clough Ian D | director | Award / grant | 167 | 31,150 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Galloway Elizabeth A | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,240 | 33,795 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Eubanks Richard M. | director | Award / grant | 126 | 47,105 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | McMaken Kurt B | director | Award / grant | 62 | 5,496 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Peschard Mijares Guillermo Eduardo | officer | Award / grant | 60 | 970 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Button Adrian | officer | Award / grant | 57 | 160 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Galloway Elizabeth A | officer | Award / grant | 46 | 2,984 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Cook Kristen Williams | officer | Award / grant | 46 | 350 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Eubanks Richard M. | director | Award / grant | 116 | 46,979 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | BOYNTON PAUL G | director | Award / grant | 77 | 10,841 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Tynan Timothy Joseph | director | Award / grant | 23 | 2,362 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Herling Michael J | director | Award / grant | 15 | 6,016 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | McMaken Kurt B | director | Award / grant | 13 | 5,434 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | BOYNTON PAUL G | director | Award / grant | 12 | 4,895 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Galloway Elizabeth A | officer | Award / grant | 7 | 2,937 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lisa Mcclain | House | sale | 2025-11-21 | 2025-10-31 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | purchase | 2025-11-21 | 2025-10-30 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | sale | 2025-11-21 | 2025-10-30 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | purchase | 2025-08-13 | 2025-06-11 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.