BCMLBayCom CorpFinancial Services · Banks - Regionalas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $30.03 · now $30.03 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BCML has typically landed between $27.12 and $33.84 — a range of −9.7% to +12.7% from the issuance price $30.03.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($30.03) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where BCML has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $30.03 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$27.12worst · -9.7%$33.84best · +12.7%
  • now $30.03 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $30.37 (+1.1%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $29.02–$31.72
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $27.12–$33.84
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−50.8%−50.8%+0.9%
2020-02-21−45.9%−50.7%+0.0%
2020-03-02−43.7%−48.3%+0.0%
3 best
2020-10-28+42.6%+0.0%+44.4%
2020-10-27+34.4%−5.8%+36.0%
2020-10-30+33.5%+0.0%+42.7%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
+0.5%
n=20
Feb
70%
+4.6%
n=20
Mar
35%
−4.4%
n=20
Apr
60%
+1.9%
n=20
May
65%
+2.0%
n=20
Jun
40%
−1.9%
n=20
Jul
60%
+1.2%
n=20
Aug
30%
−0.7%
n=20
Sep
60%
+0.3%
n=20
Oct
60%
+1.1%
n=20
Nov
55%
+3.3%
n=20
Dec
50%
+0.6%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$35$262026-08-21: 1 insider purchase, $30K — Laverne Robert G.2026-08-20: 1 insider purchase, $30K — Laverne Robert G.2026-08-10: 1 insider purchase, $251K — Baron Christopher F2026-07-31: 1 insider purchase, $151K — PERDUE MICHAEL J2026-05-26: 1 insider purchase, $93K — PERDUE MICHAEL J2026-05-22: 1 insider purchase, $62K — PERDUE MICHAEL J2026-05-06: 1 insider purchase, $802K — Black William J2026-05-05: 1 insider purchase, $196K — Black William J2026-05: 4 open-market purchases, $1.2M2026-07: 1 open-market purchase, $151K2026-08: 3 open-market purchases, $311K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Laverne Robert G. — Purchase on 2026-08-21, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Laverne Robert G. — Purchase on 2026-08-20, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Baron Christopher F — Purchase on 2026-08-10, filed 1 day after the tradedirector PERDUE MICHAEL J — Purchase on 2026-07-31, filed 3 days after the tradedirector PERDUE MICHAEL J — Purchase on 2026-05-26, filed same daydirector PERDUE MICHAEL J — Purchase on 2026-05-22, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Black William J — Purchase on 2026-05-06, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Black William J — Purchase on 2026-05-05, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-21Laverne Robert G.directorPurchase1,000 @ $29.85$30K+1.1% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open92,628Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-20Laverne Robert G.directorPurchase1,000 @ $29.95$30K+1.1% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open91,628Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-10Baron Christopher FdirectorPurchase8,250 @ $30.39$251K+827.5% of holding+0.3%not yet — horizon still open9,247Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-31PERDUE MICHAEL JdirectorPurchase5,000 @ $30.17$151K+166.7% of holding−3.8%not yet — horizon still open8,000Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-26PERDUE MICHAEL JdirectorPurchase3,000 @ $30.94$93Kownership Δ n/a+6.3%not yet — horizon still open3,000Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-22PERDUE MICHAEL JdirectorPurchase2,000 @ $30.94$62Kownership Δ n/a+7.6%not yet — horizon still open2,000Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-06Black William JdirectorPurchase26,549 @ $30.22$802K+406.4% of holding+5.1%not yet — horizon still open33,082Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-05Black William JdirectorPurchase6,533 @ $29.99$196Kownership Δ n/a−0.3%not yet — horizon still open6,533Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-03Guarini George J.directorSale27,000 @ $27.50$743K−36.6% of holding−0.2%+2.8%46,759Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

34 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-21Black William JdirectorAward / grant75,00075,000Form 4
2026-07-21Thompson Kevin LofficerAward / grant25,00025,000Form 4
2026-07-21Curley Mary ThereseofficerAward / grant15,00015,000Form 4
2026-07-21Baron Christopher FdirectorAward / grant52,50052,500Form 4
2026-07-01Baron Christopher FdirectorAward / grant997997Form 4
2026-07-01Black William JdirectorAward / grant99734,079Form 4
2026-07-01PERDUE MICHAEL JdirectorAward / grant1,1821,182Form 4
2026-07-01Chaudhary Harpreet S.directorAward / grant1,18247,101Form 4
2026-07-01Magid Syvia L.directorAward / grant1,18210,491Form 4
2026-07-01Laverne Robert G.directorAward / grant1,18290,628Form 4
2026-07-01Guida Dennis Henry JrdirectorAward / grant1,1823,928Form 4
2026-07-01Kendall Lloyd W. Jr.directorAward / grant1,18284,077Form 4
2026-07-01Amin Bhupen BdirectorAward / grant1,1823,928Form 4
2026-07-01Thompson Kevin LofficerAward / grant532532Form 4
2026-03-04Guarini George J.directorGift8,69327,478Form 4
2026-01-02Zhu Izabella L.officerAward / grant1,35310,500Form 4
2026-01-02Guarini George J.directorAward / grant6,47036,171Form 4
2026-01-02Colwell Keary L.directorAward / grant3,73385,752Form 4
2026-01-02King Janet LeedirectorAward / grant3,73383,752Form 4
2026-01-02Curley Mary ThereseofficerAward / grant1,73913,688Form 4
2025-07-21Guarini George J.directorGift17,05829,701Form 4
2025-07-01Guida Dennis Henry JrdirectorAward / grant1,4192,746Form 4
2025-07-01Miranda Felix Antonio JrofficerAward / grant346346Form 4
2025-07-01Chaudhary Harpreet S.directorAward / grant1,41945,919Form 4
2025-07-01Miranda Felix Antonio JrofficerAward / grant346346Form 4
2025-07-01Magid Syvia L.directorAward / grant1,4199,309Form 4
2025-07-01Amin Bhupen BdirectorAward / grant1,4192,746Form 4
2025-07-01Kendall Lloyd W. Jr.directorAward / grant1,41982,895Form 4
2025-01-02King Janet LeedirectorAward / grant3,98679,989Form 4
2025-01-02Zhu Izabella L.officerAward / grant1,3319,147Form 4
2025-01-02Colwell Keary L.directorAward / grant3,98681,989Form 4
2025-01-02Guarini George J.directorAward / grant6,91073,759Form 4
2024-07-01Laverne Robert G.directorAward / grant1,41989,446Form 4
2024-01-02Curley Mary ThereseofficerAward / grant1,85811,949Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.