Issued 2026-09-16 at $22.00 · now $22.00 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BCAX has typically landed between $15.66 and $29.85 — a range of −28.8% to +35.7% from the issuance price $22.00.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
482 overlapping 1 month windows · 2024-09-13 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($22.00) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where BCAX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $22 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $22 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $21.83 (-0.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $18.84–$24.83
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $15.66–$29.85
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 482 windows spanning 2024-09-13 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-03-07 | −42.5% | −42.5% | +0.0% |
| 2025-04-24 | −40.7% | −40.7% | +0.2% |
| 2025-05-22 | −39.3% | −41.4% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-09-17 | +70.3% | −4.8% | +71.5% |
| 2025-09-16 | +67.2% | −7.2% | +67.2% |
| 2025-09-18 | +65.0% | −5.6% | +70.1% |
482 overlapping windows · 2024-09-13 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~2 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
0%
−13.9%
n=2
Feb
50%
+2.6%
n=2
Mar
50%
+8.3%
n=2
Apr
100%
+9.4%
n=2
May
50%
−17.4%
n=2
Jun
100%
+18.5%
n=2
Jul
50%
+5.4%
n=2
Aug
50%
−3.6%
n=2
Sep
50%
+13.7%
n=2
Oct
50%
−2.1%
n=2
Nov
50%
+1.0%
n=2
Dec
0%
−12.8%
n=2
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Cohlhepp Ryan | director | Sale | 14,058 @ $22.77 | $320K | −7.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 185,083 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Cohlhepp Ryan | director | Sale | 3,442 @ $23.43 | $81K | −1.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 181,641 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Cohlhepp Ryan | director | Sale | 18,750 @ $27.98 | $525K | −9.4% of holding | −13.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 181,641 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Hyep Ivan | officer | Sale | 12,500 @ $27.97 | $350K | −8.8% of holding | −13.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 129,855 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Mazumdar Claire | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $27.98 | $280K | −2.7% of holding | −13.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 362,152 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-10 | Mazumdar Claire | director | Sale | 9,972 @ $28.42 | $283K | −2.7% of holding | −6.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 362,180 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-10 | Mazumdar Claire | director | Sale | 28 @ $29.68 | $831 | −0.0% of holding | −6.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 362,152 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-09 | Cohlhepp Ryan | director | Sale | 536 @ $29.00 | $16K | −0.3% of holding | −8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 181,641 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-08 | Cohlhepp Ryan | director | Sale | 22,833 @ $28.76 | $657K | −10.9% of holding | −8.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 187,558 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-08 | Hyep Ivan | officer | Sale | 22,757 @ $28.60 | $651K | −14.4% of holding | −8.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 135,098 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-08 | Hyep Ivan | officer | Sale | 4,413 @ $29.82 | $132K | −3.3% of holding | −8.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 130,685 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-08 | Cohlhepp Ryan | director | Sale | 4,306 @ $29.80 | $128K | −2.3% of holding | −8.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 183,252 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-08 | Cohlhepp Ryan | director | Sale | 1,075 @ $30.35 | $33K | −0.6% of holding | −8.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 182,177 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-08 | Hyep Ivan | officer | Sale | 830 @ $30.31 | $25K | −0.6% of holding | −8.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 129,855 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Hyep Ivan | officer | Sale | 9,200 @ $20.42 | $188K | −6.0% of holding | +20.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 145,355 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Mazumdar Claire | director | Sale | 12,022 @ $19.96 | $240K | −3.2% of holding | +18.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 365,130 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Mazumdar Claire | director | Sale | 2,978 @ $20.35 | $61K | −0.8% of holding | +18.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 362,152 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Cohlhepp Ryan | director | Sale | 8,000 @ $20.29 | $162K | −3.9% of holding | +7.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 196,141 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Cohlhepp Ryan | director | Sale | 4,500 @ $20.29 | $91K | −2.3% of holding | +7.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 191,641 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-27 | Raben David | officer | Sale | 5,500 @ $22.88 | $126K | −9.0% of holding | −8.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 55,286 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-21 | Hyep Ivan | officer | Sale | 9,200 @ $23.00 | $212K | −6.0% of holding | −16.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 145,355 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-20 | Mazumdar Claire | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $23.61 | $354K | −4.0% of holding | −18.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 362,152 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-15 | Cohlhepp Ryan | director | Sale | 8,000 @ $23.01 | $184K | −3.8% of holding | −19.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 200,641 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-15 | Cohlhepp Ryan | director | Sale | 4,500 @ $23.01 | $104K | −2.2% of holding | −19.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 196,141 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-25 | Raben David | officer | Sale | 5,500 @ $18.95 | $104K | −9.0% of holding | +12.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 55,286 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-23 | Hyep Ivan | officer | Sale | 9,200 @ $18.52 | $170K | −6.0% of holding | +20.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 145,355 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-20 | Mazumdar Claire | director | Sale | 1,596 @ $18.95 | $30K | −0.5% of holding | +17.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 339,392 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-19 | Mazumdar Claire | director | Sale | 6,905 @ $18.78 | $130K | −2.0% of holding | +17.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 339,392 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-18 | Mazumdar Claire | director | Sale | 6,499 @ $18.84 | $122K | −1.9% of holding | +22.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 339,392 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Cohlhepp Ryan | director | Sale | 8,000 @ $19.66 | $157K | −3.8% of holding | +17.4% | +3.0% | 205,141 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Cohlhepp Ryan | director | Sale | 4,500 @ $19.66 | $88K | −2.2% of holding | +17.4% | +3.0% | 200,641 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Mazumdar Claire | director | Sale | 36,766 @ $19.17 | $705K | −9.8% of holding | +9.8% | +6.8% | 339,392 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | Mazumdar Claire | director | Sale | 3,817 @ $18.75 | $72K | −1.1% of holding | +17.0% | +10.3% | 339,392 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-05 | Mazumdar Claire | director | Sale | 1,786 @ $18.74 | $33K | −0.5% of holding | +15.7% | +12.1% | 339,392 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Raben David | officer | Sale | 16,300 @ $18.52 | $302K | −22.8% of holding | +19.8% | +14.8% | 55,286 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Hyep Ivan | officer | Sale | 2,963 @ $18.25 | $54K | −2.0% of holding | +19.8% | +14.8% | 145,355 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Mazumdar Claire | director | Sale | 2,631 @ $18.73 | $49K | −0.8% of holding | +19.8% | +14.8% | 339,392 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Hyep Ivan | officer | Sale | 13,555 @ $18.22 | $247K | −8.5% of holding | +17.8% | +18.1% | 145,355 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Cohlhepp Ryan | director | Sale | 12,892 @ $18.16 | $234K | −5.8% of holding | +17.8% | +18.1% | 209,641 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Cohlhepp Ryan | director | Sale | 4,500 @ $18.16 | $82K | −2.1% of holding | +17.8% | +18.1% | 205,141 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Raben David | officer | Sale | 200 @ $18.45 | $4K | −0.4% of holding | +17.8% | +18.1% | 55,286 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Purchase | 2,200,000 @ $16.00 | $35.2M | ownership Δ n/a | +17.1% | +35.3% | 2,200,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Purchase | 300,000 @ $16.00 | $4.8M | +7.0% of holding | +17.1% | +35.3% | 4,603,418 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Cohlhepp Ryan | director | Sale | 3,108 @ $18.04 | $56K | −1.5% of holding | +14.7% | +30.1% | 210,164 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Cohlhepp Ryan | director | Sale | 523 @ $18.04 | $9K | −0.2% of holding | +14.7% | +30.1% | 209,641 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-22 | Cohlhepp Ryan | director | Sale | 3,828 @ $18.10 | $69K | −1.8% of holding | −5.8% | +45.8% | 210,164 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-22 | Hyep Ivan | officer | Sale | 1,882 @ $18.15 | $34K | −1.3% of holding | −5.8% | +45.8% | 145,355 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-15 | Cohlhepp Ryan | director | Sale | 149 @ $18.02 | $3K | −0.1% of holding | −14.3% | +54.9% | 213,992 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-22 | Hyep Ivan | officer | Sale | 9,200 @ $18.31 | $168K | −6.0% of holding | −9.3% | +36.0% | 145,355 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | Cohlhepp Ryan | director | Sale | 8,000 @ $18.68 | $149K | −4.0% of holding | −11.1% | +15.4% | 193,641 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | Cohlhepp Ryan | director | Sale | 4,500 @ $18.68 | $84K | −2.3% of holding | −11.1% | +15.4% | 189,141 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | Raben David | officer | Sale | 4,594 @ $18.84 | $87K | −11.5% of holding | −11.6% | +5.1% | 35,497 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-25 | Raben David | officer | Sale | 906 @ $18.84 | $17K | −2.5% of holding | −11.6% | +5.1% | 35,497 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-24 | Mazumdar Claire | director | Sale | 41,163 @ $18.86 | $776K | −11.7% of holding | −12.1% | +1.7% | 309,892 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-24 | Hyep Ivan | officer | Sale | 17,795 @ $18.55 | $330K | −10.9% of holding | −12.1% | +1.7% | 145,355 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-24 | Raben David | officer | Sale | 5,500 @ $18.45 | $101K | −13.4% of holding | −12.1% | +1.7% | 35,497 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | Cohlhepp Ryan | director | Sale | 8,000 @ $18.05 | $144K | −3.9% of holding | −7.4% | +5.1% | 198,141 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | Cohlhepp Ryan | director | Sale | 4,500 @ $18.05 | $81K | −2.3% of holding | −7.4% | +5.1% | 193,641 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | Hyep Ivan | officer | Sale | 605 @ $18.15 | $11K | −0.4% of holding | −7.4% | +5.1% | 145,355 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-16 | Mazumdar Claire | director | Sale | 24,103 @ $18.83 | $454K | −7.2% of holding | −22.6% | +17.8% | 309,892 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
152 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Cohlhepp Ryan | director | Option exercise | 17,500 | 199,141 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Cohlhepp Ryan | director | Option exercise | 17,500 | 34,252 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Larson Jennifer | officer | Award / grant | 285,000 | 285,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Cohlhepp Ryan | director | Option exercise | 18,750 | 200,391 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Hyep Ivan | officer | Option exercise | 12,500 | 142,355 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Mazumdar Claire | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 372,152 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Cohlhepp Ryan | director | Option exercise | 18,750 | 51,752 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Mazumdar Claire | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 110,546 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Hyep Ivan | officer | Option exercise | 12,500 | 26,336 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | Bender Jeremy | director | Award / grant | 38,950 | 38,950 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | Oliger Christy J. | director | Award / grant | 38,950 | 38,950 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Mazumdar Claire | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 372,152 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Mazumdar Claire | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 120,546 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-08 | Cohlhepp Ryan | director | Option exercise | 18,750 | 210,391 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-08 | Hyep Ivan | officer | Option exercise | 12,500 | 157,855 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-08 | Hyep Ivan | officer | Option exercise | 11,592 | 58,992 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-08 | Cohlhepp Ryan | director | Option exercise | 18,750 | 70,502 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-08 | Hyep Ivan | officer | Option exercise | 908 | 38,836 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | POWELL MICHAEL | director | Award / grant | 19,475 | 19,475 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | director | Award / grant | 19,475 | 19,475 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Simson Jake | director | Award / grant | 19,475 | 19,475 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Robertson Scott M. | director | Award / grant | 19,475 | 19,475 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Mazumdar-Shaw Kiran | director | Award / grant | 19,475 | 19,475 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Haviland Kate | director | Award / grant | 19,475 | 19,475 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Bowden Christopher | director | Award / grant | 19,475 | 19,475 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Hyep Ivan | officer | Option exercise | 9,200 | 154,555 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Hyep Ivan | officer | Option exercise | 9,200 | 70,584 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Mazumdar Claire | director | Option exercise | 15,000 | 377,152 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Mazumdar Claire | director | Option exercise | 15,000 | 146,107 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Cohlhepp Ryan | director | Option exercise | 8,000 | 204,141 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Cohlhepp Ryan | director | Option exercise | 8,000 | 101,334 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Schelman William | officer | Award / grant | 85,000 | 85,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-27 | Raben David | officer | Option exercise | 5,500 | 60,786 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-27 | Raben David | officer | Option exercise | 5,500 | 41,913 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | Hyep Ivan | officer | Option exercise | 9,200 | 154,555 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | Hyep Ivan | officer | Option exercise | 9,200 | 39,744 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Mazumdar Claire | director | Option exercise | 15,000 | 377,152 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Mazumdar Claire | director | Option exercise | 15,000 | 161,107 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-16 | Mazumdar Claire | director | Option exercise | 7,080 | 362,152 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-16 | Mazumdar Claire | director | Option exercise | 8,226 | 347,618 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.