Issued 2026-09-16 at $92.45 · now $92.45 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BBY has typically landed between $80.82 and $107.58 — a range of −12.6% to +16.4% from the issuance price $92.45.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($92.45) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where BBY has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $92.45 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $92.45 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $91.57 (-1.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $85.98–$97.17
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $80.82–$107.58
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-26 | −44.8% | −44.8% | +0.0% |
| 2014-01-03 | −44.0% | −44.1% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-11 | −43.8% | −43.8% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-03-06 | +57.9% | +0.0% | +62.9% |
| 2008-11-20 | +56.8% | +0.0% | +64.1% |
| 2009-03-05 | +54.7% | −5.0% | +54.7% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 50 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$72.41
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 23.8× · n=50$128.87
- Analyst target · range $60.00–$90.00$78.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$92.45
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | SCHULZE RICHARD M | other | Sale | 107,534 @ $82.82 | $8.9M | −1.1% of holding | −3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,530,936 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-14 | SCHULZE RICHARD M | other | Sale | 88,288 @ $81.73 | $7.2M | −0.9% of holding | −3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,638,470 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-14 | SCHULZE RICHARD M | other | Sale | 62,072 @ $80.88 | $5.0M | −0.6% of holding | −3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,726,758 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-14 | SCHULZE RICHARD M | other | Sale | 42,106 @ $83.63 | $3.5M | −0.4% of holding | −3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,788,830 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-13 | SCHULZE RICHARD M | other | Sale | 336,006 @ $82.50 | $27.7M | −3.3% of holding | −0.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,830,936 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-13 | SCHULZE RICHARD M | other | Sale | 252,380 @ $81.78 | $20.6M | −2.4% of holding | −0.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,166,942 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-13 | SCHULZE RICHARD M | other | Sale | 11,614 @ $83.44 | $969K | −0.1% of holding | −0.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,419,322 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-26 | SCHULZE RICHARD M | other | Sale | 224,705 @ $78.10 | $17.6M | −2.1% of holding | +13.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,430,936 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-25 | SCHULZE RICHARD M | other | Sale | 193,896 @ $78.13 | $15.1M | −1.8% of holding | +14.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,655,641 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | SCHULZE RICHARD M | other | Sale | 5,100 @ $78.00 | $398K | −0.0% of holding | +15.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,849,537 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | SCHULZE RICHARD M | other | Sale | 76,299 @ $78.23 | $6.0M | −0.7% of holding | +11.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,854,637 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | SCHULZE RICHARD M | other | Sale | 191,572 @ $75.96 | $14.6M | −1.7% of holding | −0.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,930,586 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | SCHULZE RICHARD M | other | Sale | 147,868 @ $76.96 | $11.4M | −1.3% of holding | −0.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,122,158 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | SCHULZE RICHARD M | other | Sale | 133,778 @ $75.09 | $10.0M | −1.2% of holding | −0.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,270,026 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | SCHULZE RICHARD M | other | Sale | 27,132 @ $77.69 | $2.1M | −0.2% of holding | −0.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,403,804 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | Watson Mathew | officer | Sale | 1,784 @ $73.80 | $132K | −7.6% of holding | −0.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,630 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-23 | Barry Corie S | director | Sale | 42,869 @ $64.02 | $2.7M | −7.6% of holding | −7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 523,138 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-23 | Bilunas Matthew M | director | Sale | 11,356 @ $64.02 | $727K | −12.9% of holding | −7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 76,884 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-23 | Scarlett Kathleen | director | Sale | 8,049 @ $64.02 | $515K | −7.3% of holding | −7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 102,669 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-23 | Bonfig Jason J | officer | Sale | 6,336 @ $64.02 | $406K | −7.4% of holding | −7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 79,137 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-23 | Hartman Todd G. | officer | Sale | 5,339 @ $64.02 | $342K | −10.8% of holding | −7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 44,098 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-23 | Watson Mathew | officer | Sale | 3,298 @ $64.02 | $211K | −12.4% of holding | −7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 23,192 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-30 | SCHULZE RICHARD M | other | Sale | 74,553 @ $84.31 | $6.3M | −0.6% of holding | −7.2% | −34.9% | 11,451,911 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-29 | SCHULZE RICHARD M | other | Sale | 62,834 @ $84.14 | $5.3M | −0.5% of holding | −5.0% | −31.9% | 11,526,464 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-28 | SCHULZE RICHARD M | other | Sale | 93,293 @ $84.10 | $7.8M | −0.8% of holding | −2.4% | −31.0% | 11,589,298 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-27 | SCHULZE RICHARD M | other | Sale | 104,313 @ $84.51 | $8.8M | −0.9% of holding | −2.4% | −31.5% | 11,682,591 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-24 | SCHULZE RICHARD M | other | Sale | 374,164 @ $83.24 | $31.1M | −3.1% of holding | −7.9% | −32.7% | 11,786,904 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-21 | SCHULZE RICHARD M | other | Sale | 299,636 @ $82.29 | $24.7M | −2.4% of holding | −8.7% | −29.6% | 12,161,068 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-21 | SCHULZE RICHARD M | other | Sale | 26,200 @ $83.00 | $2.2M | −0.2% of holding | −8.7% | −29.6% | 12,460,704 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-20 | SCHULZE RICHARD M | other | Sale | 300,000 @ $81.02 | $24.3M | −2.3% of holding | −6.5% | −25.9% | 12,486,904 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-20 | SCHULZE RICHARD M | other | Sale | 200,000 @ $80.56 | $16.1M | −1.5% of holding | −6.5% | −25.9% | 12,786,904 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-04 | Watson Mathew | officer | Sale | 2,018 @ $76.76 | $155K | −9.1% of holding | −2.3% | −15.4% | 20,132 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-03 | SCHULZE RICHARD M | other | Sale | 196,100 @ $74.00 | $14.5M | −100.0% of holding | −0.6% | −16.5% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-29 | Watson Mathew | officer | Sale | 3,715 @ $74.07 | $275K | −14.4% of holding | +0.5% | −14.2% | 22,150 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-09 | SCHULZE RICHARD M | other | Sale | 529,201 @ $72.95 | $38.6M | −3.9% of holding | −1.9% | −12.2% | 12,987,420 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-09 | SCHULZE RICHARD M | other | Sale | 200,000 @ $72.95 | $14.6M | −50.5% of holding | −1.9% | −12.2% | 196,100 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-24 | Bilunas Matthew M | director | Sale | 51,000 @ $74.20 | $3.8M | −47.7% of holding | −8.3% | −15.8% | 55,856 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-21 | Bilunas Matthew M | director | Sale | 9,482 @ $72.65 | $689K | −8.2% of holding | −6.2% | −16.6% | 106,856 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-21 | Scarlett Kathleen | director | Sale | 6,847 @ $72.65 | $497K | −7.3% of holding | −6.2% | −16.6% | 87,389 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-21 | Hartman Todd G. | officer | Sale | 4,893 @ $72.65 | $355K | −13.1% of holding | −6.2% | −16.6% | 32,320 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-21 | Bonfig Jason J | officer | Sale | 4,867 @ $72.65 | $354K | −7.5% of holding | −6.2% | −16.6% | 60,147 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-21 | Harmon Damien | director | Sale | 4,047 @ $72.65 | $294K | −6.7% of holding | −6.2% | −16.6% | 56,786 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-21 | Watson Mathew | officer | Sale | 2,951 @ $72.65 | $214K | −12.1% of holding | −6.2% | −16.6% | 21,371 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-14 | Watson Mathew | officer | Sale | 3,182 @ $71.29 | $227K | −14.2% of holding | −8.6% | −11.0% | 19,218 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-12 | Barry Corie S | director | Purchase | 13,500 @ $72.92 | $984K | +3.7% of holding | −10.9% | −7.5% | 378,780 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-11 | Bilunas Matthew M | director | Sale | 65,167 @ $87.43 | $5.7M | −41.4% of holding | −0.0% | −16.1% | 92,070 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-11 | Bilunas Matthew M | director | Sale | 3,999 @ $87.91 | $352K | −2.5% of holding | −0.0% | −16.1% | 157,237 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
70 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | BRAMMAN ANNE L | director | Award / grant | 18,955 | 18,955 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | BRAMMAN ANNE L | director | Award / grant | 14,581 | 33,536 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-20 | Watson Mathew | officer | Award / grant | 5,874 | 27,678 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-07 | Hartman Todd G. | officer | Gift | 600 | 43,916 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Jadeja Ashok Jitendra Dylan | director | Award / grant | 2,611 | 3,914 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | FRANK MEGHAN | director | Award / grant | 2,611 | 4,678 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | KENNY DAVID W | director | Award / grant | 4,330 | 56,520 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Kimbell David C | director | Award / grant | 2,611 | 10,894 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Marte Mario Jesus | director | Award / grant | 2,611 | 17,705 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | McLoughlin Karen | director | Award / grant | 2,611 | 40,907 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Munce Claudia F. | director | Award / grant | 2,611 | 38,684 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Rendle Steven E | director | Award / grant | 2,611 | 17,104 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Sistani Sima | director | Award / grant | 2,611 | 11,918 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Whittington Melinda D | director | Award / grant | 2,611 | 11,918 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Caputo Lisa | director | Award / grant | 2,611 | 65,067 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Parham Richelle P | director | Award / grant | 2,611 | 27,373 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | SCHULZE RICHARD M | other | Gift | 350 | 10,930,936 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | SCHULZE RICHARD M | other | Gift | 350 | 399 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | SCHULZE RICHARD M | other | Gift | 1,252 | 1,688 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | SCHULZE RICHARD M | other | Gift | 939 | 749 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | SCHULZE RICHARD M | other | Gift | 20,975 | 11,430,936 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Watson Mathew | officer | Award / grant | 5,972 | 26,490 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Bilunas Matthew M | director | Award / grant | 29,857 | 88,240 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Bonfig Jason J | officer | Award / grant | 23,886 | 85,473 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Barry Corie S | director | Award / grant | 111,465 | 566,007 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Hartman Todd G. | officer | Award / grant | 15,924 | 49,437 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Scarlett Kathleen | director | Award / grant | 21,895 | 110,718 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-13 | Jadeja Ashok Jitendra Dylan | director | Award / grant | 1,266 | 1,266 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-12 | Scarlett Kathleen | director | Withheld for tax | 417 | 88,368 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-04 | FRANK MEGHAN | director | Award / grant | 2,007 | 2,008 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-30 | Barry Corie S | director | Withheld for tax | 24,053 | 449,893 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-30 | Barry Corie S | director | Option exercise | 33,253 | 473,946 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-30 | Barry Corie S | director | Option exercise | 33,253 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-29 | SCHULZE RICHARD M | other | Gift | 258 | 694 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-29 | SCHULZE RICHARD M | other | Gift | 258 | 436 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-29 | SCHULZE RICHARD M | other | Gift | 516 | 12,986,904 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-13 | Whittington Melinda D | director | Award / grant | 2,946 | 8,812 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-13 | Rendle Steven E | director | Award / grant | 2,946 | 13,723 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-13 | Sistani Sima | director | Award / grant | 2,946 | 8,812 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-13 | Parham Richelle P | director | Award / grant | 2,946 | 23,450 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-01 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-17 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-24 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-10-03 | 2025-09-29 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-09-09 | 2025-08-04 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-09-09 | 2025-08-04 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-06-10 | 2025-05-28 | $1–15K |
| Rob Bresnahan | House | sale | 2025-04-28 | 2025-04-08 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.