BBWBuild-A-Bear Workshop, Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retailas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $26.37 · now $26.37 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BBW has typically landed between $21.38 and $33.33 — a range of −18.9% to +26.4% from the issuance price $26.37.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($26.37) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where BBW has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $26.37 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$21.38worst · -18.9%$33.33best · +26.4%
  • now $26.37 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $26.64 (+1.0%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $24.2–$29.08
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $21.38–$33.33
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-03-05−71.4%−71.4%+0.0%
2020-03-04−68.8%−68.8%+0.0%
2020-03-03−68.6%−68.6%+0.0%
3 best
2021-05-07+130.8%−0.9%+130.8%
2020-04-03+130.3%+0.0%+149.1%
2021-05-04+122.1%−2.2%+122.1%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
+3.0%
n=20
Feb
45%
−2.2%
n=20
Mar
45%
+1.1%
n=20
Apr
55%
+6.9%
n=20
May
55%
+5.1%
n=20
Jun
25%
−3.9%
n=20
Jul
45%
−2.0%
n=20
Aug
50%
+1.0%
n=20
Sep
40%
+0.1%
n=20
Oct
60%
+8.3%
n=20
Nov
50%
+0.3%
n=20
Dec
60%
+1.9%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$74$262026-08-24: 1 insider sale, $273K — John Sharon Price2026-06-05: 1 insider sale, $104K — Carrara George2025-10-13: 2 insider sales, $61K — Rotenberg Lesli …2025-10-06: 4 insider sales, $302K — Leavitt Craig, Rotenberg Lesli …2025-10-01: 3 insider sales, $269K — Leavitt Craig …2025-09-22: 4 insider sales, $1.1M — John Sharon Price, Todorovic Vojin …2025-09-16: 8 insider sales, $2.9M — John Sharon Price, Todorovic Vojin …2025-09: 12 open-market sales, $4.1M2025-10: 9 open-market sales, $633K2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $104K2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $273K↑ buys↓ salesdirector John Sharon Price — Sale on 2026-08-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Carrara George — Sale on 2026-06-05, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Rotenberg Lesli — Sale on 2025-10-13, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Rotenberg Lesli — Sale on 2025-10-13, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Leavitt Craig — Sale on 2025-10-06, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Leavitt Craig — Sale on 2025-10-06, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Rotenberg Lesli — Sale on 2025-10-06, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Rotenberg Lesli — Sale on 2025-10-06, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Leavitt Craig — Sale on 2025-10-01, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Leavitt Craig — Sale on 2025-10-01, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Leavitt Craig — Sale on 2025-10-01, filed 1 day after the tradedirector John Sharon Price — Sale on 2025-09-22, filed 2 days after the tradedirector John Sharon Price — Sale on 2025-09-22, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Todorovic Vojin — Sale on 2025-09-22, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Todorovic Vojin — Sale on 2025-09-22, filed 2 days after the tradedirector John Sharon Price — Sale on 2025-09-16, filed 2 days after the tradedirector John Sharon Price — Sale on 2025-09-16, filed 2 days after the tradedirector John Sharon Price — Sale on 2025-09-16, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Todorovic Vojin — Sale on 2025-09-16, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Todorovic Vojin — Sale on 2025-09-16, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Todorovic Vojin — Sale on 2025-09-16, filed 2 days after the tradedirector John Sharon Price — Sale on 2025-09-16, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Todorovic Vojin — Sale on 2025-09-16, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-24John Sharon PricedirectorSale6,818 @ $40.03$273K−3.6% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open181,653Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-05Carrara GeorgedirectorSale3,000 @ $34.52$104K−21.0% of holding−11.8%not yet — horizon still open11,277Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-10-13Rotenberg LeslidirectorSale650 @ $60.99$40K−6.0% of holding−26.1%−45.1%10,175Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-13Rotenberg LeslidirectorSale350 @ $61.99$22K−3.4% of holding−26.1%−45.1%9,825Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-06Leavitt CraigdirectorSale2,908 @ $60.45$176K−4.3% of holding−15.3%−37.2%65,234Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-06Leavitt CraigdirectorSale1,092 @ $61.03$67K−1.7% of holding−15.3%−37.2%64,142Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-06Rotenberg LeslidirectorSale941 @ $59.91$56K−8.0% of holding−15.3%−37.2%10,884Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-06Rotenberg LeslidirectorSale59 @ $61.04$4K−0.5% of holding−15.3%−37.2%10,825Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-01Leavitt CraigdirectorSale2,590 @ $63.08$163K−3.6% of holding−15.2%−37.8%69,802Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-01Leavitt CraigdirectorSale1,522 @ $63.52$97K−2.2% of holding−15.2%−37.8%68,280Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-01Leavitt CraigdirectorSale138 @ $64.92$9K−0.2% of holding−15.2%−37.8%68,142Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-22John Sharon PricedirectorSale9,946 @ $73.22$728K−3.8% of holding−21.7%−40.5%248,662Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-22John Sharon PricedirectorSale2,697 @ $72.55$196K−1.0% of holding−21.7%−40.5%258,608Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-22Todorovic VojinofficerSale1,815 @ $73.06$133K−2.7% of holding−21.7%−40.5%65,247Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-22Todorovic VojinofficerSale929 @ $72.55$67K−1.4% of holding−21.7%−40.5%67,062Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-16John Sharon PricedirectorSale15,288 @ $73.21$1.1M−5.4% of holding−20.9%−47.5%268,215Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-16John Sharon PricedirectorSale6,910 @ $74.17$513K−2.6% of holding−20.9%−47.5%261,305Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-16John Sharon PricedirectorSale7,030 @ $72.64$511K−2.4% of holding−20.9%−47.5%283,503Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-16Todorovic VojinofficerSale5,096 @ $73.21$373K−6.8% of holding−20.9%−47.5%70,294Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-16Todorovic VojinofficerSale2,303 @ $74.17$171K−3.3% of holding−20.9%−47.5%67,991Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-16Todorovic VojinofficerSale2,343 @ $72.64$170K−3.0% of holding−20.9%−47.5%75,390Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-16John Sharon PricedirectorSale772 @ $71.51$55K−0.3% of holding−20.9%−47.5%290,533Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-16Todorovic VojinofficerSale258 @ $71.51$18K−0.3% of holding−20.9%−47.5%77,733Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-24Rotenberg LeslidirectorSale1,755 @ $53.52$94K−12.9% of holding−7.1%−3.8%11,825Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-12Leavitt CraigdirectorSale8,250 @ $50.21$414K−10.2% of holding−2.2%−7.6%72,392Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-09FENCL ERIC RofficerSale16,466 @ $48.41$797K−12.9% of holding+1.5%−9.3%111,550Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-05John Sharon PricedirectorSale19,605 @ $45.30$888K−6.1% of holding+5.1%−10.2%302,950Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-05John Sharon PricedirectorSale11,645 @ $46.44$541K−3.8% of holding+5.1%−10.2%291,305Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-03FENCL ERIC RofficerSale6,993 @ $48.50$339K−5.4% of holding+7.7%−4.2%123,318Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-02Carrara GeorgedirectorSale6,000 @ $47.85$287K−32.6% of holding+6.5%−1.5%12,421Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-21Hurt J. ChristopherofficerSale6,210 @ $39.91$248K−12.6% of holding−1.4%+32.8%43,176Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-21Todorovic VojinofficerSale5,000 @ $40.08$200K−6.6% of holding−1.4%+32.8%70,695Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-15Hurt J. ChristopherofficerSale12,635 @ $39.53$499K−20.4% of holding−6.0%+29.0%49,386Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-13Todorovic VojinofficerSale12,300 @ $41.46$510K−13.6% of holding−13.5%+18.2%78,395Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-13Todorovic VojinofficerSale2,700 @ $42.00$113K−3.4% of holding−13.5%+18.2%75,695Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-10John Sharon PricedirectorSale53,462 @ $42.02$2.2M−15.4% of holding−12.4%+14.8%294,358Form 4 · filed same day
2025-01-10John Sharon PricedirectorSale500 @ $42.55$21K−0.2% of holding−12.4%+14.8%293,858Form 4 · filed same day
2025-01-07John Sharon PricedirectorSale67,778 @ $46.05$3.1M−16.3% of holding−20.3%+2.1%348,901Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-01-07John Sharon PricedirectorSale1,081 @ $46.56$50K−0.3% of holding−20.3%+2.1%347,820Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-12-13Leavitt CraigdirectorSale2,500 @ $41.36$103K−3.1% of holding−4.6%+29.2%78,167Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-12-09FENCL ERIC RofficerSale9,074 @ $40.28$366K−6.6% of holding+7.0%+24.8%128,004Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-09Rotenberg LeslidirectorSale2,473 @ $41.10$102K−17.4% of holding+7.0%+24.8%11,724Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

67 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-04Fundler YevgenyofficerWithheld for tax1567,458Form 4
2026-07-01John Sharon PricedirectorGift10,000188,471Form 4
2026-06-12John Sharon PricedirectorDisposition23,336198,471Form 4
2026-06-12John Sharon PricedirectorDisposition23,336198,471Form 4
2026-06-11Iyengar Narayan RaghudirectorAward / grant2,66318,716Form 4
2026-06-11Rotenberg LeslidirectorAward / grant2,66312,488Form 4
2026-06-11Johnson Richard AdirectorAward / grant2,6635,124Form 4
2026-06-11Carrara GeorgedirectorAward / grant2,66313,940Form 4
2026-06-11GOLDMAN JAMES AdirectorAward / grant2,6633,219Form 4
2026-06-11John Sharon PricedirectorAward / grant2,663221,807Form 4
2026-06-11Johnson Richard AdirectorAward / grant2,6635,124Form 4
2026-06-11Leavitt CraigdirectorAward / grant3,69867,840Form 4
2026-06-11Rotenberg LeslidirectorAward / grant2,66312,488Form 4
2026-06-11Iyengar Narayan RaghudirectorAward / grant2,66318,716Form 4
2026-06-11Leavitt CraigdirectorAward / grant3,69867,840Form 4
2026-06-11Carrara GeorgedirectorAward / grant2,66313,940Form 4
2026-06-11GOLDMAN JAMES AdirectorAward / grant2,6633,219Form 4
2026-06-11John Sharon PricedirectorAward / grant2,663221,807Form 4
2026-06-03John Sharon PricedirectorWithheld for tax982219,144Form 4
2026-06-03Todorovic VojinofficerWithheld for tax46679,142Form 4
2026-06-03Hurt J. ChristopherofficerWithheld for tax46659,049Form 4
2026-06-03Henderson David D.officerWithheld for tax46420,687Form 4
2026-04-30John Sharon PricedirectorWithheld for tax5,300220,126Form 4
2026-04-30Todorovic VojinofficerWithheld for tax1,60979,608Form 4
2026-04-30Hurt J. ChristopherofficerWithheld for tax1,60459,515Form 4
2026-04-30Henderson David D.officerWithheld for tax24521,151Form 4
2026-04-14Todorovic VojinofficerAward / grant8,87281,217Form 4
2026-04-14Henderson David D.officerAward / grant5,91612,524Form 4
2026-04-14Henderson David D.officerAward / grant8,87221,396Form 4
2026-04-14Hurt J. ChristopherofficerAward / grant1,18251,654Form 4
2026-04-14Hurt J. ChristopherofficerAward / grant9,46561,119Form 4
2026-04-14John Sharon PricedirectorAward / grant7,446213,597Form 4
2026-04-14John Sharon PricedirectorAward / grant11,829225,426Form 4
2026-04-14Fundler YevgenyofficerAward / grant5,9167,614Form 4
2026-04-14Todorovic VojinofficerAward / grant5,91672,345Form 4
2026-04-14Todorovic VojinofficerAward / grant1,18266,429Form 4
2026-04-10John Sharon PricedirectorGift42,511206,151Form 4
2026-02-10GOLDMAN JAMES AdirectorAward / grant556556Form 4
2026-02-10GOLDMAN JAMES AdirectorAward / grant556556Form 4
2025-08-04Fundler YevgenyofficerAward / grant1,6981,698Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.