Issued 2026-09-16 at $68.30 · now $68.30 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BBIO has typically landed between $52.93 and $92.50 — a range of −22.5% to +35.4% from the issuance price $68.30.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,792 overlapping 1 month windows · 2019-06-27 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($68.30) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where BBIO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $68.3 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $68.3 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $68.9 (+0.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $61.3–$76.49
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $52.93–$92.5
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,792 windows spanning 2019-06-27 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2021-12-23 | −76.0% | −76.0% | +0.0% |
| 2021-12-21 | −75.3% | −75.7% | +0.0% |
| 2021-12-20 | −75.1% | −75.1% | +2.2% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2023-06-16 | +129.8% | +0.0% | +129.8% |
| 2023-06-15 | +122.0% | −3.3% | +122.0% |
| 2023-06-27 | +111.3% | +0.0% | +111.7% |
1,792 overlapping windows · 2019-06-27 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~8 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
43%
−4.3%
n=7
Feb
43%
+1.0%
n=7
Mar
43%
+7.8%
n=7
Apr
29%
−6.8%
n=7
May
29%
−3.8%
n=7
Jun
86%
+14.5%
n=7
Jul
63%
+12.6%
n=8
Aug
63%
+2.9%
n=8
Sep
25%
−5.8%
n=8
Oct
71%
+4.2%
n=7
Nov
71%
+10.3%
n=7
Dec
71%
+4.7%
n=7
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Kumar Neil | director | Sale | 8,100 @ $83.86 | $679K | −1.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 507,586 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Kumar Neil | director | Sale | 1,800 @ $84.69 | $152K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 505,786 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Kumar Neil | director | Sale | 100 @ $85.65 | $9K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 505,686 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Kumar Neil | director | Sale | 17,279 @ $82.21 | $1.4M | −6.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 259,128 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Kumar Neil | director | Sale | 14,602 @ $82.99 | $1.2M | −5.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 244,526 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Kumar Neil | director | Sale | 1,900 @ $81.15 | $154K | −0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 276,407 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Kumar Neil | director | Sale | 1,199 @ $83.77 | $100K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 243,327 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-30 | Apuli Maricel | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $80.06 | $160K | −1.5% of holding | −10.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 127,401 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-09 | Cook Jennifer E. | director | Sale | 112,422 @ $90.00 | $10.1M | −93.1% of holding | −9.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,383 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-09 | Cook Jennifer E. | director | Sale | 36,167 @ $84.00 | $3.0M | −23.0% of holding | −9.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 120,805 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-09 | Ellis Andrea | director | Sale | 17,167 @ $84.00 | $1.4M | −43.2% of holding | −9.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 22,579 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Cook Jennifer E. | director | Sale | 37,167 @ $70.00 | $2.6M | −81.6% of holding | +20.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,383 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-23 | Valantine Hannah | director | Sale | 2,196 @ $68.57 | $151K | −19.2% of holding | +20.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,259 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-23 | Cook Jennifer E. | director | Sale | 2,196 @ $68.57 | $151K | −20.8% of holding | +20.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,383 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | Valantine Hannah | director | Sale | 2,808 @ $68.00 | $191K | −19.7% of holding | +19.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,455 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Cook Jennifer E. | director | Sale | 88,737 @ $66.62 | $5.9M | −91.6% of holding | +18.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,092 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Cook Jennifer E. | director | Sale | 1,503 @ $67.14 | $101K | −18.6% of holding | +18.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,589 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | Kumar Neil | director | Sale | 8,437 @ $67.88 | $573K | −1.6% of holding | +14.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 520,102 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | Kumar Neil | director | Sale | 8,437 @ $67.88 | $573K | −0.2% of holding | +14.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,322,862 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | Kumar Neil | director | Sale | 7,148 @ $67.20 | $480K | −0.2% of holding | +14.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,331,299 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | Kumar Neil | director | Sale | 7,147 @ $67.20 | $480K | −1.3% of holding | +14.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 528,539 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | Kumar Neil | director | Sale | 4,416 @ $68.96 | $305K | −0.8% of holding | +14.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 515,686 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | Kumar Neil | director | Sale | 4,415 @ $68.96 | $304K | −0.1% of holding | +14.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,318,447 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | Kumar Neil | director | Sale | 15,921 @ $67.74 | $1.1M | −2.9% of holding | +16.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 536,136 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | Kumar Neil | director | Sale | 15,921 @ $67.74 | $1.1M | −0.4% of holding | +16.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,338,897 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | Kumar Neil | director | Sale | 2,200 @ $65.72 | $145K | −0.4% of holding | +16.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 553,486 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | Kumar Neil | director | Sale | 2,200 @ $65.72 | $145K | −0.1% of holding | +16.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,356,247 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | Kumar Neil | director | Sale | 1,429 @ $66.72 | $95K | −0.3% of holding | +16.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 552,057 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | Kumar Neil | director | Sale | 1,429 @ $66.72 | $95K | −0.0% of holding | +16.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,354,818 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | Kumar Neil | director | Sale | 450 @ $68.27 | $31K | −0.0% of holding | +16.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,338,447 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | Kumar Neil | director | Sale | 450 @ $68.27 | $31K | −0.1% of holding | +16.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 535,686 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Kumar Neil | director | Sale | 11,250 @ $70.48 | $793K | −4.4% of holding | −1.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 244,127 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Kumar Neil | director | Sale | 6,725 @ $68.30 | $459K | −2.5% of holding | −1.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 260,449 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Kumar Neil | director | Sale | 5,072 @ $69.22 | $351K | −1.9% of holding | −1.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 255,377 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Kumar Neil | director | Sale | 2,256 @ $67.57 | $152K | −0.8% of holding | −1.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 267,174 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Kumar Neil | director | Sale | 800 @ $70.92 | $57K | −0.3% of holding | −1.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 243,327 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Trimarchi Thomas | officer | Sale | 10,456 @ $64.82 | $678K | −2.8% of holding | +2.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 362,389 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Trimarchi Thomas | officer | Sale | 3,195 @ $65.95 | $211K | −0.9% of holding | +2.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 359,194 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Scott Randal W. | director | Sale | 6,200 @ $66.69 | $413K | −28.7% of holding | −0.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,389 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Scott Randal W. | director | Sale | 2,088 @ $67.53 | $141K | −13.6% of holding | −0.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,301 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Scott Randal W. | director | Sale | 1,512 @ $68.23 | $103K | −11.4% of holding | −0.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,789 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Scott Randal W. | director | Sale | 200 @ $69.12 | $14K | −1.7% of holding | −0.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,589 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-08 | Kumar Neil | director | Sale | 13,974 @ $66.65 | $931K | −0.3% of holding | +0.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,364,473 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-08 | Kumar Neil | director | Sale | 13,973 @ $66.65 | $931K | −2.4% of holding | +0.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 561,713 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-08 | Kumar Neil | director | Sale | 5,077 @ $67.35 | $342K | −0.9% of holding | +0.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 556,636 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-08 | Kumar Neil | director | Sale | 5,076 @ $67.35 | $342K | −0.1% of holding | +0.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,359,397 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-08 | Kumar Neil | director | Sale | 950 @ $68.35 | $65K | −0.2% of holding | +0.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 555,686 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-08 | Kumar Neil | director | Sale | 950 @ $68.35 | $65K | −0.0% of holding | +0.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,358,447 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Kumar Neil | director | Sale | 11,217 @ $67.50 | $757K | −1.9% of holding | −1.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 584,469 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Kumar Neil | director | Sale | 11,217 @ $67.49 | $757K | −0.3% of holding | −1.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,387,230 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Kumar Neil | director | Sale | 8,334 @ $68.38 | $570K | −0.2% of holding | −1.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,378,896 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Kumar Neil | director | Sale | 8,333 @ $68.38 | $570K | −1.4% of holding | −1.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 576,136 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Kumar Neil | director | Sale | 450 @ $69.09 | $31K | −0.1% of holding | −1.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 575,686 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Kumar Neil | director | Sale | 449 @ $69.09 | $31K | −0.0% of holding | −1.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,378,447 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-30 | Apuli Maricel | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $71.58 | $143K | −1.5% of holding | −13.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 134,115 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-10 | Kumar Neil | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $74.60 | $1.5M | −3.2% of holding | −22.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 595,686 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-10 | Kumar Neil | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $74.60 | $1.5M | −0.5% of holding | −22.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,398,447 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-09 | Kumar Neil | director | Sale | 7,800 @ $75.53 | $589K | −0.2% of holding | −19.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,418,447 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-09 | Kumar Neil | director | Sale | 7,500 @ $75.55 | $567K | −1.2% of holding | −19.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 615,686 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-09 | Kumar Neil | director | Sale | 7,200 @ $73.64 | $530K | −1.1% of holding | −19.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 628,486 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
132 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Kumar Neil | director | Withheld for tax | 36,237 | 278,307 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | Trimarchi Thomas | officer | Withheld for tax | 22,781 | 336,529 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | Apuli Maricel | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,714 | 122,687 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | Kumar Neil | director | Option exercise | 6,520 | 91,274 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | Kumar Neil | director | Option exercise | 33,544 | 67,088 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | Kumar Neil | director | Option exercise | 19,599 | 117,596 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | Kumar Neil | director | Option exercise | 11,554 | 115,538 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | Kumar Neil | director | Option exercise | 6,520 | 314,544 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | Kumar Neil | director | Option exercise | 33,544 | 276,871 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | Kumar Neil | director | Option exercise | 6,520 | 314,544 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | Kumar Neil | director | Option exercise | 11,554 | 308,024 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | Kumar Neil | director | Option exercise | 19,599 | 296,470 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | Kumar Neil | director | Option exercise | 33,544 | 276,871 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | Kumar Neil | director | Option exercise | 6,520 | 314,544 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | Kumar Neil | director | Option exercise | 11,554 | 308,024 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | Kumar Neil | director | Option exercise | 19,599 | 296,470 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | Kumar Neil | director | Option exercise | 33,544 | 276,871 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | Kumar Neil | director | Option exercise | 6,520 | 314,544 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | Kumar Neil | director | Option exercise | 11,554 | 308,024 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | Kumar Neil | director | Option exercise | 33,544 | 276,871 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | Kumar Neil | director | Option exercise | 19,599 | 296,470 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | Kumar Neil | director | Option exercise | 11,554 | 308,024 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | Kumar Neil | director | Option exercise | 19,599 | 296,470 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-09 | Cook Jennifer E. | director | Option exercise | 112,422 | 139,805 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-09 | Ellis Andrea | director | Option exercise | 17,167 | 39,746 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-09 | Cook Jennifer E. | director | Option exercise | 17,167 | 156,972 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-09 | Cook Jennifer E. | director | Option exercise | 19,000 | 27,383 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-09 | Cook Jennifer E. | director | Option exercise | 17,167 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-09 | Cook Jennifer E. | director | Option exercise | 19,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-09 | Cook Jennifer E. | director | Option exercise | 112,422 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-09 | Ellis Andrea | director | Option exercise | 17,167 | 17,167 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | Cook Jennifer E. | director | Option exercise | 17,167 | 45,550 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | Cook Jennifer E. | director | Option exercise | 20,000 | 28,383 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | Cook Jennifer E. | director | Option exercise | 20,000 | 19,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | Cook Jennifer E. | director | Option exercise | 17,167 | 17,167 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | Valantine Hannah | director | Option exercise | 2,808 | 14,263 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | Dachille Douglas A. | director | Award / grant | 3,990 | 10,579 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | Dachille Douglas A. | director | Award / grant | 5,277 | 5,277 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | MCCORMICK FRANK | director | Award / grant | 3,990 | 10,579 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | MCCORMICK FRANK | director | Award / grant | 5,277 | 5,277 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.